As we’ve seen in recent years, job security can sometimes hinge on the result of a single game. Lane Kiffin at USC and Will Muschamp at Florida come to mind.
The following Power 5 coaches are not on the hot seat. Some do not feel even close to it. But they’ll want to win these pivotal games in 2016 to remain in good standing with their fans and administrators.
1. Butch Jones, Tennessee
Pivotal game: vs. Florida (Sept. 24)
It’s a painful stat every Tennessee fan knows all too well: The Volunteers have lost 11 in a row to Florida, going back to 2004. That includes the Gators’ great escape last season, when they scored late on fourth-and-14 to break the Vols' hearts and continue the streak.
If Jones and Tennessee truly have designs on returning to the sport’s elite -- or winning the division, at least -- they have to begin by ending the Florida hex. Symbolically, this is a must-win.
Further, a loss would create some seriously bad mojo considering what immediately follows: road games at Georgia and Texas A&M and then the rivalry game against Alabama.
Tennessee likely needs a split there to have a shot at the SEC East, and anything shy of a division title would create quite a bit of angst toward Jones.
This is the season he has pointed toward since arriving. The Vols have been in big games; starting with Florida, the sense in the coaching community is that it’s time for Jones and the team to win big games.
2. Mark Helfrich, Oregon
Pivotal game: vs. Washington (Oct. 8)
Stanford would seem to be the obvious choice since the Cardinal and Ducks have traded Pac-12 North titles since the divisions were created in 2011, but ask around the Pacific Northwest and there is momentum brewing for Chris Petersen’s Washington program.
In a rebuilding state in 2015, the Huskies came within a touchdown of Oregon. Playing at Autzen this season will still be an advantage for the Ducks, but some (much?) of the mystique is gone after Utah, not exactly an offensive machine, put up 62 points in Eugene last fall. As we presently sit, this appears to be a very winnable game for U-Dub.
Helfrich has dealt with a fair amount of skepticism since taking over for Chip Kelly. Even the run to the national title game in 2014 is seen by many in the sport as a product of having Marcus Mariota at quarterback.
With new play-callers on both sides of the ball, including Brady Hoke running a new-look defense, this is a massively important year for Helfrich. His program cannot get passed by Washington in the division if he intends to be in Eugene long-term.
3. Mike Riley, Nebraska
Pivotal game: vs. Purdue (Oct. 22)
Wait … Purdue? Shouldn’t that be an automatic ‘W’? Yes, yes it should. The Boilermakers have won six total games the past three seasons, just two in Big Ten play.
But one of those two conference victories came against Nebraska in 2015. Any Nebraska fan who questioned Riley’s pre-NU track record was validated when the Huskers lost in East Lafayette. They were dominated, too; at one point in the game it was 42-16. It was the certain low point in the staff’s 5-7 season in Year 1.
As nice of a guy as he is, Riley does not want to see what happens if the Huskers somehow dropped two in a row against the lowliest team in the league. That theoretical home loss would be almost impossible to rebound from in terms of fan support, especially if it sent Nebraska spiraling back toward another .500-type season.
Supporters were used to nine wins under Bo Pelini, coaches point out. The pressure is on for Riley to get back toward that number. Wins against programs such as Purdue are obviously requisite for that.
4. Todd Graham, Arizona State
Pivotal game: vs. Washington State
For the first time since he arrived in 2012, agents tell Insider that Graham has something to prove. The Sun Devils were projected by some last year to win the Pac-12 and rep the league in the College Football Playoff.
Instead, a 6-7 flop induced questions and created pressure for this fall. In the interest of a bounce-back season, conference games against Colorado and Washington State become must-wins.
That’s especially true for the Wazzu game since the Pac-12 South is simply too loaded for Graham’s team to drop cross-divisional games in which they’re favored.
ASU has done it before, too. Even in the 10-win season of 2014, the Devils lost to an Oregon State team that finished 5-7 and won just two conference games.
A loss to Cal last season was less galling, but the Bears were still another North foe with a sub-.500 mark in the league. Washington State could be a similarly damaging loss.
5. Kirby Smart, Georgia
Pivotal game: vs. Florida (Oct. 29; Jacksonville, Fla.)
We all know it’s Smart’s first season and that he will not immediately land on the hot seat, but the fact is, he’s replacing a coach who won nearly 10 games a season for 15 years in the SEC. So coaches say the expectations are not starting at ground zero, as it does in some other cases.
Mark Richt is coaching at Miami and not Georgia in part because of the past two installments of the rivalry game against Florida. The Bulldogs had no business losing to the Gators in Will Muschamp’s last season in Gainesville, nor Jim McElwain’s first year at UF.
A microscope will be on this game to see how Smart handles the lead-up and the game itself. As a former UGA player, Smart knows the importance of this rivalry as much as anyone. And he knows it’s in his best interest to set a different tone than the dismal one left behind by Richt.