Insider finishes its weeklong look at coaching stability with the SEC. The conference has a number of coaches either on or nearing the hot seat, including one who staved off a coup last fall.
These rankings go in descending order from least to most stable. Keep in mind that stability is not solely determined by whether a program will want to part ways with its head coach if there are perceived failings; often, success will make it difficult, if not impossible, for a program to keep a coach from leaving for a seemingly better job.
Here is the breakdown of each SEC coaching situation.
14. Les Miles, LSU
12th season, 112-32 record
It’s stunning that Miles would be in any danger whatsoever, given he has won 9.3 games a season and a national title with the Tigers. It’s clear that Nick Saban has altered expectations for most everyone in the SEC, most notably at LSU, his previous stop in the league. Saban envy is real.
An influential LSU donor called Insider last fall on the day of the regular-season finale against Texas A&M. His understanding was that Miles was out and that FSU’s Jimbo Fisher would be announced as the new coach in a matter of days. It was that close to happening. Athletic director Joe Alleva and the school’s leadership reportedly decided midgame to keep Miles after seeing the outcry from fans.
There’s nothing remotely stable about that scenario, and it doesn’t create an air of calm moving forward, despite the fact that LSU returns as much talent as any team in the country.
Coaches and agents believe it’s SEC title or bust for Miles. The question would then become: Would Fisher be more interested this time around?
13. Mark Stoops, Kentucky
Fourth season; 12-24 record
In consecutive seasons, the Wildcats have started well only to finish one win shy of a bowl berth. Those losing seasons have weighed heavily on Stoops and his staff, those close to the program say.
Some close to the program have told Insider that Stoops sometimes becomes too emotional in his decision-making and that he does not trust his staff nearly enough, even during games. That could be part of the reason the relationship with offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson disintegrated after one season; the Cats will now have their third playcaller in three seasons.
It seemed for a time that Stoops was on the verge of making Kentucky competitive, but now it feels like a stretch that he’s going to get the program going.
12. Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M
Fifth season, 36-16 record
When Insider visited with Sumlin on signing day in 2015, he acknowledged that the next two or three seasons would essentially determine his future at the school. Sumlin now enters the second season in that window with increasingly waning security. The program is suffering from a loss of momentum. In 2015, the Aggies completed their second straight 8-5 season, and they haven’t been above .500 in the SEC since Sumlin’s first season.
Sumlin has told boosters this spring that the program is in great shape, but the outside appearance doesn’t feel that way after several staff changes over the past two seasons, multiple off-field incidents and now three notable quarterback transfers. If the Ags put up another seven- or eight-win regular season, some agents think this would be Sumlin’s last season at A&M. Is that fair?
“A lot is expected from you when you make $5 mil a year,” one agent said.
And that doesn’t take into account the $450 million recently pumped into Kyle Field and its surrounding football facilities.
11. Gus Malzahn, Auburn
Fourth season, 27-13 record
When Insider visited the coaches’ convention in San Antonio in January, Auburn and Penn State consistently came up as the two programs suddenly trending in the wrong direction.
In particular, some coaches saw it as curious that receivers coach Dameyune Craig would leave for the same position at rival LSU.
“That told me something was up,” an SEC assistant coach said.
At minimum, it indicates there was some level of friction within the football building. Perhaps Craig's departure alleviated some of that, but maybe it didn’t. It’s something to watch.
It would take a horrific year for Auburn’s administrators to move on Malzahn this fall. But he is on notice, thanks in part to a cluttered booster culture that some close to the program have called “politically divisive.”
10. Dan Mullen, Mississippi State
Eighth season, 55-35 record
Mullen has won 19 games over the past two seasons in Starkville. The Bulldogs have been to six consecutive bowl games, and they’ve won four of them. Mississippi State is thrilled with his performance.
But as far as the school has come in spending and support, how long can he keep it up when he is out-resourced by everyone in the division? That’s why you find Mullen so low in terms of stability. Those who know the situation say that he has been quietly looking for a parachute to a job with either more resources or a more navigable path to victories.
What sort of job fits that description? Insider was told that Mullen had serious interest in Miami when it was open. We were additionally told that he might’ve been the school’s choice if it didn’t hire Mark Richt.
9. Bret Bielema, Arkansas
Fourth season, 18-20 record
Coaches and agents have repeatedly told Insider that Bielema’s outspoken nature is the greatest threat to his long-term future at the school.
An opinionated coach is a great thing for media types, and lots of fans enjoy it, but does it wear thin in the football building?
“I wonder how much [athletic director] Jeff [Long] wants to put up with,” an agent told Insider this spring.
Winning, of course, makes some of that a wash, but the Razorbacks have needed late-season rallies each of the past two years to get above .500. With a new quarterback and starting backfield, it’ll be a grind for the Hogs to get to six wins this fall. And if it doesn’t happen, the school’s patience will be further diminished.
8. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt
Third season, 7-17 record
Despite only one more victory than in the first season, Mason and his staff showed tremendous improvement in their second year. The decision to install himself in the defensive coordinator role worked out well for Mason, and SEC coaches thought new offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig demonstrated better decision-making, despite the unit’s continued struggles.
With quarterback Kyle Shurmur now in his second year on campus, Ludwig’s offense needs to make dramatic strides in 2016. The offensive line is of particular concern, Insider noticed when watching Vandy’s spring game. Mason’s defense should again be solid. This is a team that coaches believe can push six wins and a bowl bid, which would further enhance Mason’s security, even as it already is trending up from a year ago at this time.
7. Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss
Fifth season, 34-18 record
The NCAA is presently looking into potential violations involving Laremy Tunsil, but the school has told ESPN.com that it does not anticipate any repercussions from the incidents Tunsil revealed during the NFL draft.
A reaction to NCAA punishment is about the only threat to Freeze’s current reign at Ole Miss, which has seen the Rebels win one more game per year in each of his four seasons. Last year’s Sugar Bowl win was the school’s first since 1969.
It’s possible that a bigger school could come after Freeze, but Ole Miss continues to reward Freeze with raises. A new deal struck in January made him the third-highest-paid coach in the SEC, behind only Saban and Sumlin. By 2018, he will be above $5 million. Given what he’s building in Oxford, there’s no urgency to leave and start building elsewhere.
6. Butch Jones, Tennessee
Fourth season, 21-17 record
A Title IX lawsuit against the school includes some explosive allegations involving Jones, but the school has told ESPN.com it intends to fight the suit in court and believes all parties will be exonerated. That case is something to monitor, however, when it comes to Jones’ stability.
There’s little to doubt at this point regarding what he is building on the football field. Under Jones, the Volunteers’ win total has increased by two victories in each of his three seasons. That would put Tennessee on track for an 11-win year in 2016, which fits in line with rising expectations for a program likely to be the heavy SEC East favorite this fall.
The rub with expectation is that falling short of Atlanta in 2016 would immediately increase pressure on Jones. Considering the Vols haven’t beaten Florida since 2002, that is a particularly important game for Jones and his staff in terms of continuing forward progress.
3-5. Kirby Smart, Georgia; Barry Odom, Missouri; Will Muschamp, South Carolina
First seasons
There isn’t much to separate these first-year coaches, though Smart faces the most immediate pressure following a coach in Richt who won 9.7 games a year for 15 seasons at Georgia. There’s also the fact that it is Smart alma mater. Smart told ESPN.com's Chris Low that he feels pressure from “the whole state of Georgia.”
Muschamp was South Carolina AD Ray Tanner’s first major hire, so Tanner will be patient in allowing the staff time to restock the moribund roster.
And Odom is in a difficult spot, replacing a highly successful, steady coach in Gary Pinkel, and there has been so much unrest on campus and within the athletic department. Expectations will not be too steep for the former Missouri and Memphis defensive coordinator.
2. Nick Saban, Alabama
10th season, 100-18 record
Saban has now led Bama to four national championships in the past seven years, cementing himself as the best college coach of this generation and one of the best of all time.
Saban, 64, seems to still have plenty of zest and energy for coaching, but Saban and his wife have voiced displeasure at the way they’re sometimes taken for granted by fans.
That isn’t enough to force him into retirement or taking another job. Saban has talked about having family in the Birmingham area; he’s content to keep the dynasty in motion for several more years.
1. Jim McElwain, Florida
Second season, 10-4
McElwain did nothing to hurt his standing in Year 1, overachieving to lead the Gators to their second SEC East title and 10-plus-win season since 2009.
That does set the bar rather high, but McElwain can relax in knowing that the quarterback situation will surely be better moving forward than it was in 2015. Oregon State transfer Luke Del Rio is the presumptive starter this fall, and youngsters Kyle Trask and Feleipe' Franks have already flashed promised since arriving on campus.
McElwain’s stock is trending up.