The phone lines on Paul Finebaum’s radio program lit up Monday afternoon when the news hit that Auburn coach Gus Malzahn had been given an extension on the heels of a 7-6 season.
“More Alabama fans were excited by the extension than Auburn fans,” Finebaum deadpanned as he concluded his show. “That isn’t a good look.”
Finebaum went on to say that he doesn’t think Malzahn deserved the extension, even if it was only one additional year to take him through 2020.
Heck, even if it were a $1 raise, people would hear “extension” and perceive that Malzahn is being rewarded. That’s a tough pill for Auburn to swallow after watching the team go 15-11 -- and 6-10 in the SEC -- since coming within seconds of the 2013 national title.
And that’s going to stick to Malzahn, particularly if the Tigers come out slow in 2016. The chances of a 2-2 start, or perhaps worse, are good.
Malzahn begins Insider’s look at critical schedule stretches for hot-seat coaches.
Auburn's critical stretch: the month of September. It's already a touchdown underdog in the opener against Clemson, the national runner-up from a year ago. Arkansas State, Malzahn’s old program, is the Week 2 opponent; the Wolves are no pushovers.
The Tigers then host Texas A&M and LSU in Weeks 3 and 4. Even a split there could send the team into October at .500.
Already feeling mounting pressure now, how would that extension go over then?
On the bright side, coaches have told Insider that they expect an improved product on the field. They like the depth and quality of the pass rush, and they anticipate that Sean White will win the QB job and provide the stability that was desperately missing in 2015.
“If [Gus] has a quarterback, they’ll be fine,” a Power 5 assistant coach told Insider this spring. “That’s the way it’s always been.”
Still, that early-season schedule is a problem.
It isn’t much better for Texas A&M’s Kevin Sumlin, another embattled coach in the division. That Week 3 head-to-head game against Malzahn’s team at Jordan-Hare Stadium is of vital importance. With what's ahead, the teams' SEC opener might as well be an elimination game in the division race.
The Aggies are slight home favorites in their opener against UCLA. Following the Auburn trip, they head to Dallas for the annual game in Jerry World against Arkansas.
Note that even Sumlin’s middling 8-5 teams the past two seasons have started 5-0, so it stands to wonder what the reaction would be to a 1-3 or 2-2 first month. (Spoiler: probably not great.)
Here are some other important schedule stretches for hot-seat coaches in 2016.
1. LSU
Oct. 22 vs. Ole Miss; Nov. 5 vs. Alabama; Nov. 12 at Arkansas
Presuming 2016 really is division-title-or-bust for Les Miles in Baton Rouge, a home date against the Crimson Tide becomes the paramount game on the schedule.
But given the unavoidable emotional drain that would entail from playing Bama, win or lose, the following week’s trip to Arkansas should be concerning for Tigers fans. For one thing, this has turned into an even matchup: Bret Bielema’s teams have won the past two in the series. Arkansas has claimed the Golden Boot in five of the past nine years.
Bielema’s teams have also had a knack for improving late in the year, and seeing the SEC’s two most physical teams in consecutive weeks is far from ideal for Miles’ hopes of again staving off the mob.
2. Texas
Sept. 17 at California; Oct. 1 at Oklahoma State; Oct. 8 vs. Oklahoma (Dallas)
Realistically, let’s project a loss vs. Notre Dame and a win against UTEP in Weeks 1 and 2. For a 1-1 team, that would create a season-defining stretch in these three games. That means it would be a career-defining stretch for Charlie Strong, who is 11-14 in two seasons in Austin.
Coaches believe that Strong’s defense will be, well, strong after he was forced to play so many freshmen and sophomores in 2015. The offense, however, is the biggest cause for concern. It’s a lot of pressure to place on a first-time play-caller (OC Sterlin Gilbert) and likely a freshman QB (Shane Buechele).
The Cal trip, in particular, looms large. Despite pronounced turnover on the offensive side of the ball, the Bears’ wide-open system is an issue for any defense, especially now with the addition of Texas Tech transfer Davis Webb at quarterback.
If Texas drops to 1-2 before the conference opener in Stillwater before facing league favorite Oklahoma the following week, look out.
3. Penn State
Sept. 10 at Pitt; Sept. 17 vs. Temple; Sept. 24 at Michigan
The seat beneath Penn State’s James Franklin is only beginning to warm, but look at those two September games against in-state programs.
The renewal of the Pitt rivalry will make Heinz Field a difficult place to play, particularly if Panthers running back James Conner is continuing his bid to return from cancer. The schools haven’t played since 2000, and it’s Pat Narduzzi’s Pitt program looking as if it’s on the way up.
Then the Lions host Temple, which is looking for consecutive wins against its big brother in the state. If Matt Rhule registers that victory in Happy Valley, more than a few PSU boosters might start wondering why the former Lions linebacker isn’t on their sideline instead of in Philly.
4. NC State
Oct. 8 vs. Notre Dame; Oct. 15 at Clemson; Oct. 22 at Louisville; Oct. 29 vs. Boston College; Nov. 5 vs. Florida State
Some coaches have told Insider that they do not understand why Dave Doeren would be considered on the hot seat.
“He’s done a good job, to me,” one ACC coach said this spring. “They’ve got good players. They’re getting better. And look who they have to go against every year.”
And therein lies the rub. The ACC’s disparate balance, with Clemson and FSU in the Atlantic Division, makes life incredibly difficult for a program such as NC State. Throw in Notre Dame rotating on the 2016 schedule and a road trip to a sneaky-good Louisville team, and Doeren’s seat might be downright toasty by November -- even if the sense in the coaching community is that he’s done a solid job.
5. Kentucky
Oct. 8 vs. Vanderbilt; Oct. 22 vs. Mississippi State; Oct. 29 at Missouri
Following consecutive five-win seasons, some agents have told Insider that they believe Mark Stoops’ future will hinge on netting a bowl berth in 2016. But are there six victories on the calendar? New Mexico State and Austin Peay appear to be the only sure bets, and the month of October will be particularly critical.
The month begins with Alabama, and a winnable game against Vanderbilt the following week may be made more difficult if the Cats are worn down by the Tide. Kentucky also has Georgia and Tennessee in early November, making the games against Mississippi State and Missouri more important in the labor to get to six wins and the postseason.
Bonus: Purdue
Sept. 24 vs. Nevada; Oct. 1 at Maryland; Oct. 8 at Illinois
With one-, two- and three-victory seasons in his first three years, it looks rather bleak for Darrell Hazell’s chances to survive Year 4.
Early-season road games against first-year staffs in the B1G just might dictate his fate. Hazell has to prove that he’s had time enough to at least beat staffs that just arrived.
And look out for Brian Polian’s Nevada visiting West Lafayette in late September. The former Notre Dame assistant -- and son of the NFL Hall of Fame GM Bill Polian -- should perhaps be in strong consideration for the Purdue job if it doesn’t ultimately work out with Hazell. After all, one Power 5 coach once told Insider that Polian was recommended to the board when Hazell was hired.