Welcome back, Alabama. After being overtaken by Ohio State for the top spot in 2015, the Tide have returned as the No. 1 team in the College Football Future Power Rankings.
First, a refresher: FPR is a projection of a program's strength over the next three years, not just the 2016 season. An eight-person panel of ESPN reporters and analysts -- Heather Dinich, Brad Edwards, Travis Haney, Sharon Katz, Tom Luginbill, Ted Miller, Adam Rittenberg and Mark Schlabach -- graded teams based on five criteria, which were weighed differently to account for their impact on overall sustained success. The criteria: coaching (27 percent of the formula), current talent (27 percent), recruiting (20 percent), title path (16 percent) and program foundation (10 percent).
One team you won't find is Baylor. The Bears climbed from No. 24 in 2013 to 19th in 2014 and then reached 14th in 2015. But the program plummeted in these rankings after the university and athletic department become engulfed in a scandal involving the handling of sexual assault cases.
Beginning with the reigning national champions, here is the top 25 of the 2016 College Football Future Power Rankings:
Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
After a fourth national championship in seven seasons, it's clear Nick Saban has perfected the "process," implementing a successful flowchart combining all elements of recruitment, development and NFL placement. This is a special, dynastic run, and as we were reminded last season, it isn't over yet.
High category: Coaching
This spring, Saban reiterated to ESPN's Chris Low his intention to remain at Alabama. The sentiment that he would leave for the NFL -- or another high-end college gig, such as Texas -- seems to be on the wane.
"If I had to bet on whether he'll be retired five years from now, I'd be leaning toward yes at the moment," FPR panelist Brad Edwards said. "But I expect Alabama to be a fixture in the top three of these rankings for as long as he's there."
Longtime defensive coordinator Kirby Smart is gone, as are secondary coach Mel Tucker and highly respected defensive line coach Bo Davis, but there's no sense from our panel that assistant coach changes will derail the program. Not with Saban still in charge.
Low category: Title path
"The Saban effect" in the SEC, especially the West Division, becomes more ingrained each year. The standard that Alabama has set under Saban has ratcheted up expectations across the conference. If you don't produce? You're out. That's why Auburn's Gus Malzahn, LSU's Les Miles and Texas A&M's Kevin Sumlin -- with a combined 175-61 record -- are on the hot seat.
The intense desire to unseat Alabama has fueled exorbitant expectations, leading to money, and lots of it, being pumped into facilities and salaries. Mississippi State's Dan Mullen is the lowest-paid coach in the SEC West, and he will average $4.275 million for the life of his deal.
Even a program the caliber of Alabama is not immune to that level of competition. After all, Ole Miss, which has defeated Bama the past two years, was a two-point-conversion stop from being the SEC West champ last season.
Ohio State has not fallen out of the top three in the four years we've compiled FPR.
High category: Coaching
Last season, ESPN's Mark Schlabach noted that Urban Meyer is 1B to Saban's 1A among the best coaches in college football. That hasn't changed. Meyer might not say the word "process" as much as Saban, but Meyer has his own patented system of success.
It was clear in 2015 that OSU missed former coordinator Tom Herman's influence on the offense. Agents, however, tell Insider that they expect a bounce-back year from Herman's replacement, Tim Beck, now that the quarterback back-and-forth between J.T. Barrett and Cardale Jones is no longer an issue.
Plus, Meyer hired former college and NFL head coach Greg Schiano to replace defensive coordinator Chris Ash, now the head man at Rutgers, a move lauded by ESPN's Adam Rittenberg.
"He's maniacal, but so is Urban," Rittenberg said, "and Urban pretty much stays out of the way of his defensive coaches. ... I see Schiano really thriving in the coordinator role and working well alongside Urban. Clearly, there was enough mutual respect to make this move, even though Schiano had to do something or risk missing another year on the field."
Low category: Title path
Even as Ohio State has remained at or near the top of FPR, the competition in the Buckeyes' division has risen considerably. Jim Harbaugh's arrival at Michigan has changed the perception of the Big Ten East. (Even if Meyer's team clobbered Harbaugh's in their first meeting.)
Rittenberg said the division, certainly at the top, is trending toward rivaling the SEC West as the most difficult in college football.
"It's getting closer," he said. "Michigan's continued improvement is huge because the Wolverines could give the Big Ten another team capable of winning a national title. That's what you have with the SEC West."
FSU and Ohio State are the only non-SEC programs to win a national title since '05. Coaches agree there are few things more challenging than replacing a legend, which makes Jimbo Fisher's work exemplary since replacing Bobby Bowden. The Seminoles remain the standard in the ACC.
High category: Recruiting
FSU is on par with any program in terms of talent and recruiting. The Seminoles landed Recruiting Nation's No. 1-ranked class in February, and they finished second in 2015 and third in 2014.
"I love how much [Fisher] believes in his recruiting approach," Rittenberg said. "He doesn't have to adjust to anyone else's. FSU has almost no social media presence and they still sign top-10 classes every year.
"Clemson's rise under Dabo Swinney is a concern in the ACC, but Florida State still should have more elite talent in many years."
Proximity is an obvious key; the Noles are better-positioned for talent in target-rich Florida.
Low category: Coaching
Don't read too much into this ranking. It's all relative; Fisher and his staff are up a full point from 2014.
But what would it take for Fisher to join Meyer and Saban in that elite coaching tier, besides the obvious answer of more trophies?
"Jimbo just isn't very visible, perhaps by choice, perhaps by location," Rittenberg said. "You see Saban and Urban more than Jimbo. Maybe it's the lingering scars from the Jameis Winston situation, which didn't help Jimbo's perception and likely soured his on the media."
Stand down, #FSUTwitter. There is a positive coming.
"But he's a heck of a coach, and he can win more national titles at Florida State," Rittenberg said.
A playoff appearance led to a three-position bump for the Tigers, but they're still second in their own division. FSU remains a giant roadblock to Clemson's continued ascendancy. However, talent has flooded into the program thanks to aggressive recruiting efforts, and the gap between the Tigers and Seminoles is narrowing.
High category: Recruiting
Clemson's recruiting score has risen a full point in the past two years -- the Tigers registered the eighth-rated class in 2016 and the fourth-ranked class in 2015, their highest since 2008. ESPN recruiting expert Tom Luginbill said the in-state talent in the Palmetto State is not always enough to buoy a class. But this staff has excelled at winning out-of-state battles, particularly in neighboring Georgia and Florida.
"They've done an unbelievable job," Luginbill said. "They've cast a wide net, and they haven't missed on those guys. They'll beat SEC teams [in recruiting]. They're viewed by recruits as an SEC team, which they basically are."
Luginbill highlighted assistants Brent Venables and Jeff Scott as two of the staff's ace recruiters.
Low category: Coaching
There used to be a sense among coaches that Dabo Swinney, an in-house promotion who previously served as the team's receivers coach, was in way over his head. Now they're tipping their cap to him.
In the 2015 FPR, panelists wondered whether losing offensive coordinator Chad Morris to SMU would impact the program's trajectory; it obviously did not, considering a national runner-up finish. Heisman finalist Deshaun Watson helped ensure the offense's continuity, and Morris' replacement, Tony Elliott, proved perfectly capable in his new role. Credit also goes to the work Venables did with a defense that returned only about half its starting cast. There is similar attrition this season, and the panel is confident in his ability to retool this unit for another playoff run.
Jim Harbaugh's arrival has stirred up the passion and energy of a program that was in desperate need of both. It hasn't taken Harbaugh long to effect change on the field as well -- the Wolverines jumped 10 spots from a year ago, and they checked in at No. 20 in 2014.
High category: Recruiting
Whether it's chugging milk or climbing trees -- or sleepovers at recruits' homes or his ballyhooed satellite camps -- Harbaugh has made his presence felt most acutely in the recruiting department. The Wolverines signed the sixth-rated class in February and have continued to dominate headlines on the trail this offseason.
"It's all about brand expansion," Luginbill said. "His energy and his work ethic and his willingness to push the envelope at all times is why this is happening. ... He had no choice to do it because the perception of the program was that it was stale, particularly outside the region.
"He's brought a cool factor to Michigan, which it was sorely lacking. He doesn't apologize for anything that he does. People see him that he is who he is. He has become authentic in kids' eyes."
Low category: Title path
The buzz is palpable, but are we giving Michigan too much credit here? Granted, it was the staff's first season, but the Wolverines did not defeat either Michigan State or Ohio State.
"Michigan hasn't done anything of real substance for more than a decade," Rittenberg said. "Even if you remove all the Harbaugh hubbub from the offseason, the Wolverines seem more like favorites [in 2016] by default. Because Ohio State and Michigan State lose so much, Michigan therefore must be the favorite because it brings so much back.
"I get it, but Michigan still has a ton to prove. ... Winning in East Lansing and Columbus -- not to mention Iowa City -- will be very tough."
Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
This is the Tigers' lowest finish in the four years of FPR. They've dropped a spot each year, sinking in 2016 largely due to a lack of faith in Les Miles' job security, which is not an unfair assessment considering the near coup last November.
High category: Recruiting
Without an in-state rival on the Power 5 level, LSU has incredible access to high-end recruits and extreme brand visibility. Going to LSU is the presumed next step for many Louisiana recruits; it's often considered an upset if a prospect leaves the state.
"You don't just go into Louisiana and get a good player," one Power 5 coach told Insider. "Not if it's one they want."
The Tigers have had a top-10 recruiting class the past four years, and 56 percent of those players have been Louisiana products. That's incredible when you consider that the state is 25th in population and 31st in land size.
Low category: Coaching
This coaching score seems to be an overreaction to the current climate in Baton Rouge. Miles is 112-32. Even if he's fired, the program is going to lure a top-flight candidate (Jimbo Fisher?).
"Some of the best coaches in the country would be lining up to take that job," Edwards said. "And Miles' successor probably won't have to face Nick Saban for as long [as Miles has]."
On the heels of a conference title and boasting the return of the Heisman Trophy runner-up, Christian McCaffrey, the Cardinal leaped 13 spots from last year's rankings.
Maybe it's even time to put to rest all those David Shaw-to-the-NFL rumors.
High category: Coaching
ESPN NFL insiders Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen have repeatedly mentioned, including this past January, that Shaw is a prime target for NFL organizations. But ESPN's Ted Miller has the impression that the feeling is not mutual at this point.
"I think there's some coaching stability [at Stanford]," Miller said. "[Shaw] makes a strong case why he likes it there. One reason is that he wants to eventually be able to send his kids to Stanford. It's kind of a golden ticket that he has. And it's his alma mater. I feel like we've reached a point where there's consistency and a comfort that Shaw is going to stay."
Low category: Title path
The Cardinal are rated 14 spots higher than the next Pac-12 North program, Washington. And Oregon is a spot behind the Huskies.
Is Stanford really that far ahead in the division?
"I see the next three years as a fairly even race between Stanford, Oregon and Washington," ESPN's Sharon Katz said, adding that Oregon's hiring of Brady Hoke as defensive coordinator should bolster the Ducks' defense. She also noted that ESPN's FPI formula gives Washington (50 percent) the best chance to win the division.
A playoff appearance and a first outright Big 12 title since 2010 resulted in a jump of nine spots for the Sooners. There's renewed optimism about OU's place in the Big 12.
High category: Foundation
The Sooners boast rich history and strong brand recognition, but their best quality continues to be administrative continuity, an increasingly rare concept in the modern game.
School president David Boren has been in place since 1994. AD Joe Castiglione was hired in 1998. Castiglione hired Bob Stoops the following year. Whenever there has been interest from other programs, Stoops has pointed to the relationship he has with his bosses.
As Texas has cycled through several leaders in recent years, Boren and Oklahoma have taken the lead as the voice of the Big 12.
Low category: Coaching
Stoops has twice made over his staff in the past five or so years. Some of those decisions have been difficult, but he made a blockbuster move in hiring offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley from East Carolina after the 2014 season. His play calling and work with quarterback Baker Mayfield led to Riley's winning the Broyles Award as the country's top assistant.
"I think they've got a little mojo going right now," Luginbill said. "I think Bob Stoops probably doesn't get the credit he deserves for sustaining [success] for a long period of time in an era that's becoming more and more difficult."
The Irish continue to reside just outside the top tier in FPR. They're not far off the pace, though: They played for a national title in 2012, and they would have had a strong playoff case if they'd beaten Stanford in last year's regular-season finale. Brian Kelly has at least put Notre Dame back in the national conversation on a consistent basis.
High category: Coaching
With 55 victories (in six seasons), Kelly is behind only Frank Leahy, Ara Parseghian, Lou Holtz and Knute Rockne on the school's all-time wins list. Decent company, right?
What Kelly's résumé is missing that those other coaches accomplished (some multiple times) is a national title. That would launch him into the elite tier of ND coaches.
During the past two offseasons, coaches and agents became increasingly convinced that Kelly would take an NFL head job. Now it's starting to seem as if he will hang around South Bend for that special run.
"It really depends on the openings," Rittenberg said. "Brian Kelly won't leave for Jacksonville or Oakland, or possibly not even Detroit. He wants a premier NFL job.
"There's also tremendous support and cohesion between Kelly and [AD] Jack Swarbrick. It's a good situation there, and Swarbrick is realistic about the challenge of winning a national title in this environment."
Low category: Title path
We're learning more each season about how the selection committee evaluates scheduling in the playoff era. Can the Irish schedule well enough over 12 games to overcome the lack of a conference championship game and/or conference title?
"Notre Dame's brand, coupled with its aggressive scheduling, makes it an ideal playoff team," said Heather Dinich. "Even with the [scheduling] agreement with the ACC, they will have the selection committee's respect and attention."
But there's also the challenge of balancing a schedule that can become too difficult. Notre Dame's two regular-season losses last season were on the road against conference champions, Clemson and Stanford. Future opponents include Michigan State, Georgia, Florida State and Ohio State.
The Spartans took another step forward in 2015, earning the program's first playoff berth and, in the process, unseating the prohibitive playoff favorite. In fact, Michigan State has stymied Ohio State in the Big Ten twice in the past three years.
So why isn't Michigan State considered the bigger threat to OSU in the division?
High category: Coaching
Mark Dantonio's score was third behind only Saban and Meyer. MSU's playoff run required overcoming a rash of injuries and the loss of longtime defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi to Pitt.
"I fully expected them to take some kind of a step back," Schlabach said. "I think they're definitely there to stay. Everyone talks about Harbaugh as the one who's going to catch Ohio State, but in the end it could be Michigan State."
Low category: Title Path
OK, so why is Michigan ranked five spots higher? Are we also tipsy from the Harbaugh Kool-Aid?
It comes back to recruiting and your talent pool: It's more difficult for Dantonio to rely on developing three-stars than it is for Ohio State and Michigan to stock up on four- and five-stars.
"While it doesn't seem right, I do believe Michigan's talent is already as good as MSU's, if not better," Edwards said. "And if you think Harbaugh is at least as good of a coach as Dantonio, then it makes sense that UM would be a little higher in the FPR.
"To put it another way, if I were asked which program in the state is most likely to win a playoff game first, I would say the Wolverines without giving it too much thought [because of the talent levels]."
Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
Florida moved up 10 places after a 10-win season in Jim McElwain's first year. But we're not completely sold on the Gators. Not yet, anyway.
"They barely beat Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Florida Atlantic," Katz pointed out.
Added Edwards: "They were running on fumes by the end of the season. You can't blame McElwain for [quarterback] Will Grier being suspended, but I didn't see any concrete evidence that Florida is back. No. 11 seems a little high to me without stronger on-field results."
High category: Foundation
Full disclosure: Votes were tallied prior to the announcement that longtime AD Jeremy Foley will retire later this season. While that would seem to be a bit of a knock to this category score, Foley was known in the SEC as someone who was notoriously stingy with spending. (UF coaches hated it; the university administration loved it.)
Foley had started to come around (as evidenced by a new indoor facility). It'll be interesting to see how Foley's replacement deals with a growing list of needs, including a football office building project that McElwain has been clamoring for (as Will Muschamp did).
Low category: Coaching
Last season was a bit of a smoke-and-mirrors act. The roster is still transitional on both sides of the ball, including the quarterback spot. If the Gators can somehow approach or match last season's success, this coaching staff will be held in much higher regard.
Kirby Smart has returned to his home state to take over at his alma mater. Our panel isn't entirely sure what to make of the change. Many college football observers are similarly confused.
"I don't think they got that one right," a Power 5 coach told Insider this spring. "Coach [Mark] Richt won a bunch of games -- and [Smart] hasn't coached a game.
High category: Recruiting
There's a horde of schools aggressively recruiting in the state, especially in the Atlanta area, but UGA is the only one that can boast status as its flagship university. Plus, Georgia Tech's high admissions standards essentially mean Georgia is running unopposed among in-state programs.
Smart has the most built-in capital in this category since he's from the state; he also played at UGA and started his coaching career there. Plus, he recruited the state for Saban at Alabama. The talent level should remain just as high as it was under Richt.
Low category: Coaching
Schlabach: "He's replacing a guy who was there for 15 years and won a lot of football games. With some exceptions, Nick Saban disciples haven't had a great track record. Their records haven't been great. But I think Kirby is in a better position because he played and coached at Georgia. ... He inherits a good roster. They'll get bigger and stronger on both lines of scrimmage.
"Everything's in place -- facilities, recruiting base. ... They're starting to spend the money that other people are spending. They'll open up the checkbook for him."
There is some immediate pressure, he added, because of Richt's standard.
"Anything short of nine or 10 wins would be seen as disappointing," Schlabach said.
Clay Helton assumed the interim tag after Steve Sarkisian's abrupt dismissal last October and was given the full-time job shortly before the season ended. While there was great internal support for Helton, his promotion has faced criticism from those who believe USC is above hiring someone with no résumé as a head coach.
High category: Recruiting
Questions about the coaching staff aside, Luginbill said he was "stunned" to see USC rated this low simply because of the inherent resources in place.
"Everyone plays second fiddle to them in the entire conference," he said.
Some coaches have historically noted that USC "recruits itself." That may be an exaggeration, but what other program could've notched a borderline top-10 class immediately after enduring three coaching changes in three seasons? It's a testament to the brand and staying power, even amid adversity.
Low category: Coaching
Miller on Helton: "I think it's legitimate to question a guy who has never been a head coach. How could you not? He's unproven. But there are reasons to believe they've hired the right guy; he's an adult compared to Sarkisian and [Lane] Kiffin in terms to how they approach their lives.
"The players are into it. They just want to play football and stop being Hollywood."
Schlabach offered a surprising comparison.
"There tends to be a question anytime an interim is promoted. It was that way with Dabo [Swinney at Clemson]," he said. "I thought for the first two or three years that [Swinney] was in over his head and he certainly proved me wrong. I could see Clay Helton doing the same thing."
It's a modest two-position jump for a team that figures to be the odds-on SEC East favorite -- and a fringe playoff contender -- in 2016. The Volunteers still have to prove they're worthy of such hype after late-game collapses against Florida and Oklahoma marred their 2015 season.
Before any of those expectations begin to materialize, however, Tennessee has to beat division rival Florida for the first time since 2004.
"Expectations should be higher for the Vols, but they have to beat the Gators, period," Dinich said. "Losing 12 straight to Florida isn't the way to start the SEC season. That game will set the tone and show everyone if the SEC East favorites are to be taken seriously."
High category: Current Talent/Recruiting
Compared to when Butch Jones took over in 2012, Luginbill said the roster is "light years" more talented "at almost every position, especially the defensive front."
Jonathan Kongbo, the No. 1 overall juco prospect, joins breakout candidate Kahlil McKenzie on a D-line that also includes All-America-level end Derek Barnett. In May, Jones' staff added eight commitments in a single day. The Vols are presently at No. 10 in ESPN's 2017 class rankings. If that holds, it would mean three top-10 classes in four years.
That's the formula to return the program to where it was during its heyday in the 1990s.
Low category: Coaching
Panelists are still waiting for the Vols to break through under Jones. Perhaps people are underestimating the arrival of new defensive coordinator Bob Shoop from Penn State.
Coaches told Insider all spring that his influence could be the difference between where the program is and where it wants to be. Shoop's Penn State and Vanderbilt defenses have been ranked an average of 14th in yards per play the past five seasons.
The Frogs fell three spots from 2015, but that doesn't necessarily seem indicative of the program's trajectory, especially considering Baylor's drop.
High category: Coaching
With Gary Patterson's stability and consistency -- he's averaged 9.5 wins for 15 seasons -- TCU appears well-situated for years to come in the Big 12. A statue of the 56-year-old Patterson recently went up just outside the school's renovated arena. That tells you what he's done to build the program.
"He's incredibly demanding but seems to get consistent effort from his players and coaches," Rittenberg said. "He's a guy you would think some would tune out, but they don't, largely because he has been so successful for so long at different [college] levels. TCU is just this quiet, machine-like program that keeps winning without generating a ton of attention. That's largely by Patterson's design."
Low category: Current talent
The defensive system is often the star, so it isn't surprising to see the talent category remain relatively low.
"Gary is completely confident in the defense he plays and has recruited to the system for years without feeling a need to change this or that," Rittenberg said, adding that Patterson was also wise enough to make an offensive shift two seasons ago when he added coordinators Doug Meacham and Sonny Cumbie to run a hurry-up, no-huddle offense.
Recruiting may never rise to the level of programs such as Oklahoma and Texas in the league. Patterson has always favored development over star power.
"They're not going to abandon what got them there," Luginbill said.
Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
With 37 wins in four seasons, Jim Mora has elevated the Bruins into something more than just "the other college team" in Los Angeles. But questions remain as to whether the program is reaching its true potential.
High category: Current talent
A Pac-12 coach told Insider last summer that UCLA had more talent than any team in the Pac-12. "And it isn't close," he said, adding that USC's NCAA-mandated scholarship reductions allowed the Bruins to surpass the Trojans' talent level.
It's enough to wonder why UCLA hasn't been able to break through for at least a Rose Bowl appearance under Mora.
Low: Coaching
That same coach in the Pac-12 wondered if Mora would ever deliver a conference title to Westwood. Discipline was something he particularly pointed out as lacking. Like Shaw at Stanford, Mora's name has come up in NFL searches (he coached both the Falcons and Seahawks in the 2000s).
Schlabach said, "I'm surprised he's been there as long as he has, but he seems committed to UCLA. They've had some unfortunate [injury] luck, especially on the offensive line the last couple of years. You'd think with [QB] Josh Rosen there, they'd continue to make some strides, but they just can't seem to put everything together."
It's a pivotal season for the wobbling-but-still-proud program. Coach Charlie Strong, entering his third year at Texas' helm, faces increasing pressure, while new coordinator Sterlin Gilbert has been tasked with revamping the stagnant offense.
Even if Strong is out by December, you'd think the Longhorns would be able to secure a reputable name in his place. But there is perhaps less confidence in AD Mike Perrin, who has never before worked in athletics, after watching him swing and miss on several candidates for the school's baseball opening.
High category: Recruiting
The dissolution of Baylor's 2016 recruiting class has turned into a windfall for Texas. The addition of four-star receiver Devin Duvernay, the No. 3 player at his position, figures to yield dividends this fall.
The talent level is increasing, without question. But will the staff have time to see it through? It all comes back to the offense, and particularly the quarterback position, where freshman Shane Buechele might become the starter.
"If their quarterback pans out," Luginbill said, "the rest of their roster is really good."
Low category: Coaching
Much like Will Muschamp's failed time at Florida, Strong erred with his initial OC hire. Shawn Watson could not get Texas' offense going, and Gilbert's appearance -- like Kurt Roper's in Muschamp's final year at UF -- might be too late.
There was a great deal of work to do once Strong arrived, but Texas went 6-6 in his first regular season and missed a bowl game last year. Regardless of the circumstances, that doesn't fly at a school with the depth of UT's resources.
This marks a precipitous drop for Auburn, FPR's No. 4 team in 2015, The Tigers were riding high with Muschamp in place as the new defensive coordinator and a breakout candidate at quarterback, Jeremy Johnson.
Muschamp is now at South Carolina and Johnson might be the third-team QB this fall. As a result, Auburn has lost all momentum.
High category: Recruiting
Former coach Gene Chizik landed excellent recruiting classes, which ended up being his worst enemy -- the Tigers' win-loss record didn't correspond with their talent level. The same thing might now be happening to Gus Malzahn, who is 15-11 in the two seasons since the BCS title game appearance. The heat is on.
Low category: Coaching
Malzahn has seen his category score dip by 1.5 points since 2014.
"Talent doesn't seem to be the problem," Rittenberg said. "I wonder if Gus does enough with leadership and development. I worry about this with all the offensive genius types. It's like they'd rather be in a dark room breaking down defenses than establishing great leadership and culture within the locker room."
Mark Richt's return to his alma mater has brought optimism that the Hurricanes can again return to prominence. At minimum, the ACC would surely appreciate if they can at least be more of a factor in the conference; this is not what was expected when "The U" was added in 2004.
High category: Recruiting
Luginbill: "Well, they've got no on-campus venue. I thought [the category score] was high because of that. With [Richt], it's all about who he hires. He's never been that hard-charging recruiter guy. He needs go-getters [as assistants] and guys who are going to grind."
Luginbill added that Richt's staff at UGA had very little chance of keeping all the talented Georgia players at home, but it's a different setup in South Florida.
"He's going to be scrutinized if he loses kids from that area," he said. "He shouldn't lose a kid from Broward or Dade counties."
Low category: Coaching
Schlabach is among those who think this was a good move for both Richt and Miami.
"I think he needed a change, and I think Georgia needed a change," he said. "Going back to his alma mater, it might energize him some. He'll definitely be more hands-on in his coaching, taking on the play calling again and coaching the quarterbacks.
"I think the guy's a really good football coach, but whether he is someone to get Miami back as an ACC contender remains to be seen. But they'll be more consistent."
The Rebels are on a serious roll on the field, having just won the Sugar Bowl and beaten Alabama in consecutive seasons, but the NCAA's enforcement arm could have a say in whether Ole Miss is going to continue that upward trend.
"I find it interesting there seems to be a level of concern with Ole Miss," Edwards said. "There must be more than one person on our panel who is worried about the impact of scholarship sanctions and the possibility that the number could still increase from what has already been self-imposed."
High category: Recruiting
The scholarship limitations will surely have an impact, but Hugh Freeze's work on the recruiting trail has been incredible. It started with the splashy No. 5-ranked recruiting class in 2013. With quarterback Shea Patterson as the centerpiece, the 2016 class was rated even higher (at No. 4).
Of course, questions are now popping up as to how the Rebels were able to procure such classes without much recruiting success historically. It remains to be seen what the NCAA will uncover in its investigation and how it will respond.
Low category: Title path
As much as Ole Miss has invested in increasing salaries and facilities, it's still dwarfed by other programs in the SEC West. Miller said, "I don't see Ole Miss as a power, as a long-term deal. Would I rather be the coach at Penn State or Ole Miss? Are you kidding me? Would I rather be the coach at A&M or Ole Miss? Are you kidding me?"
Go to: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
Chris Petersen and the Huskies overachieved to win seven games last season, which seems to have swayed our panelists.
"Buckle up," Luginbill said. "That program's about to explode."
High category: Coaching
Katz thought this rating was actually too low, based on a three-year projection.
"I'm a big believer in what Chris Petersen is doing," she said. "It may still be another year until we see the Huskies competing for a Pac-12 title, but they're on the cusp of breaking through.
"Petersen has transformed Washington into a top-10 defense, and the young offense improved as the season went on. I wouldn't be surprised if in three years the Huskies are mentioned among the nation's elite programs."
Low category: Foundation
It wasn't the lowest category, technically, but Miller thought this was a place where U-Dub was undervalued.
"I think people forget just how dominant Washington was in the 1980s under Don James. I mean, Nick Saban learned from Don James," Miller said. "There are a lot of positives once they got themselves squared away with the right coach. Washington, as a program, has a lot of money. It's in a great location and it has won in the past."
Miller, who was once a columnist in Seattle, also noted that longtime fans have always wanted the Huskies to have a dominant defense, even as Oregon rose in the Pac-12. Petersen seems like a godsend, even if his arrival was met with some trepidation among some fans.
The perception among panelists is that Oregon, which dropped 12 spots, took a huge step back during a 9-4 season in 2015. Questions persist as to whether Mark Helfrich, promoted to replace Chip Kelly four seasons ago, is the right man for the job., despite a very respectable 33-8 record with a national runner-up finish in 2014.
High category: Foundation
Phil Knight has stepped aside at Nike, but his fingerprints are still all over the Oregon program. No one has had a super-booster like Knight.
"He's definitely the first example, and it's not even close," Rittenberg said. "T. Boone [Pickens at Oklahoma State] would be second, but it's a distant second. ... Knight is the single-biggest reason Oregon football matters because of the branding and the resources he has given the program. Nike makes Oregon cool on a different level."
Low category: Coaching
Edwards said Washington's place ahead of Oregon is a "product of folks selling Mark Helfrich stock rather than buying Chris Petersen." Petersen did enough to pass Helfrich in the panelists' eyes.
Miller added: "Younger fans don't really seem to recall how average the program was historically. There are all these new fans with high expectations. These are legitimate questions, but they're coming off a nine-win season. This wasn't a four-win team." And there's a new defensive coordinator, with former Michigan head coach Brady Hoke taking over the defense.
"It seems like a good hire," Miller said. "He can probably help Helfrich out. He will have some ideas, just having been a head coach before. It's an inspired hire in a lot of ways. It wasn't the conventional way of thinking. He's never been a coordinator before. But it's still no sure thing."
Miller pointed to the Washington game, a historical regional rivalry, as an important one on Oregon's calendar. We'll soon know whether the Huskies have passed the Ducks on the field, just as they have in FPR.
"To those fans," Miller said, "they need to reassert that they're better than Washington."
This is the only program that remained at its 2015 position. That might seem strange considering that Louisville likely has a top-15 team in 2016, but look beyond this season.
"I expect them to be good under [Bobby Petrino]," Edwards said, "but I can't see him building a power. It seems like the kind of program that can get enough experienced talent to contend for a year or two but would go back to being an eight-win team for the next two years."
High category: Coaching
Petrino isn't going to win many popularity contests among college coaches. But he has their respect.
"He's a different guy, kind of a loner," said one Power 5 coach. "You never know where he's coming from [in meetings with other coaches]. But, man, can he coach. He's really, really good." Petrino is now 100-39 in his various college stops.
Low category: Recruiting
Schlabach noted that Petrino's staff has fared pretty well recruiting in Georgia and has built the 2016 team on the back of transfers.
"I don't know that that's a recipe for long-term success," he said. "It's the same problem that Kentucky faces on a yearly basis. There aren't enough in-state players to build a program with. They've got to get into crowded recruiting states like Georgia and Florida.
"It's always been a difficult job, and I think it's more difficult based on the fact that now they're in the same division as Clemson and Florida State. Who were they going against in the Big East? South Florida and West Virginia?"
The Cowboys return to the rankings on the heels of a surprising 10-3 season in 2015 that yielded a Sugar Bowl trip.
High category: Coaching
Is Mike Gundy underrated? After all, four of his past six teams have won 10-plus games.
"Maybe a little," Rittenberg said. "Has any team benefited more from Texas' struggles than Oklahoma State? Maybe Baylor.
"He has lost assistants but typically finds good replacements. [Defensive coordinator] Glenn Spencer is really underrated nationally, in my view. Last year's team was a bit of a mirage because of the schedule, but Gundy does a solid job."
Low category: Recruiting
It isn't the easiest thing to recruit talent to Stillwater, Oklahoma, but Gundy and his staff keep managing to do it well relative to location. The facility boosts, backed by Pickens, have certainly helped.
"Gundy's longevity really helps them in recruiting," Rittenberg said. "They know who they want and they don't have to compromise much, especially at the offensive skill spots."
The Cornhuskers return despite a 6-7 season in which they needed an exception to even receive a bowl berth.
High category: Foundation
Nebraskans care about Nebraska football, greatly. The school reciprocates by financially supporting the program. There's no shortage of desire to return to the heights that Huskers football once reached.
The landscape, however, has changed. Aggressive recruiting has left behind a program located in the middle of the country, and far from the bulk of America's talent.
Low category: Recruiting
Luginbill referenced ESPN research that showed the average Nebraska recruit grows up 900 miles from campus.
"And this is not necessarily a national brand," he said, "not anymore."
That's what Mike Riley is fighting against in his second season -- resuscitating a program with very few geographic benefits. What bodes well for him is that no program has a stranglehold in the Big Ten West. Look at Iowa. Kirk Ferentz had been left for dead, and the Hawkeyes were on the precipice of the College Football Playoff last season. Just because times have changed doesn't preclude Nebraska from success.
But it would behoove Riley to win at least nine games, the average each year for predecessor Bo Pelini.