The 2025-26 offseason has yet another strong crop of Japanese players that are available in free agency -- after having been posted by their respective Nippon Professional Baseball clubs -- and are set to play in Major League Baseball next season.
Three main players are drawing the most attention from MLB teams: right-handed starting pitcher Tatsuya Imai and infielders Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto.
Let's break down what to expect from each in 2026 and which teams could sign them.
Tatsuya Imai, RHP
The 27-year-old projects as a third starter -- think an ERA in the mid-3.00s -- but there's still some risk for him to even hit that projection since the big leagues are still a step up from Japan's NPB.
Imai is not that big, standing 5-foot-11, and though he has above-average control now, that hasn't always been the case. His walk rate was 5.1 BB/9 in 2022, then 4.1 in 2023, 3.6 in 2024 and 2.5 in 2025. That makes him sound like a soft tosser who gets by on his newfound feel, but his four-seam fastball sits at 93-97 mph and hits 99. There's some real stuff here, too, as his splitter is an above-average pitch by nearly any metric and his slider also performs as an above-average pitch.
I worded it that way because his slider is a unique pitch as it doesn't "slide," or, in other words, it averages arm-side movement (like a splitter/changeup does) rather than glove side movement (like a slider/curveball does). That might sound bad, but pitching is all about deception, and hitters don't expect a slider to move like that, which is part of the reason the pitch performed well last season, garnering a 45% miss rate and a .212 xwOBA allowed.
There's also a precedent for this exact arsenal succeeding in the big leagues: Trey Yesavage. Yesavage throws a four-seam fastball, an arm-side-moving slider and a splitter, and though his release (among the highest in the league) is different than Imai's (lower than average, because of his lower arm slot and below-average height) and Yesavage's splitter is better (among the best in the league), they're otherwise attacking hitters in a similar way.
Given Imai's ability to improve his command and make an unusual approach work in addition to still being in his 20s for a few more years, teams see that he has the traits necessary to make continued adjustments when entering a league with a new baseball and new opponents. Maybe he'll even tweak his pitch mix and locations a bit to optimize his arsenal; his fastball locations are too center-cut while the shape of his fastball would work better at the top of the strike zone.
Since he doesn't come with a qualifying offer and is among the youngest free agents in the class, Imai is attractive to most of MLB, so his contract is expected to go well into nine figures. I projected an all-in cost (including posting fee to his NPB club) of $157 million over six years. If anything, that could be a bit low.
It's hard to narrow down which teams will be interested in Imai, especially as typical lower-spending teams, such as the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins, are expected to spend more in free agency than in past years. That said, among teams set to spend at the higher end of the market that need starting pitchers (and maybe don't want to give up a draft pick to get one), you have the New York Mets, San Francisco Giants and New York Yankees, who are perennially in on the top players coming from NPB.
Munetaka Murakami, 3B
Murakami is fascinating both because he's a study in extremes and because his potential pool of teams might not be that big.
He has some of the best left-handed raw power on Earth with exit velocities that would rank from first to 12th in the big leagues depending on which metric you're using. Combine that with some gaudy home run figures -- he broke the NPB single-season home run record with 56 homers as a 22-year-old in 2022 -- along with the fact that Murakami is still just 25 (and won't cost the signing team a draft pick), and there are some clear positives here to get teams excited.
On the other hand, his homer totals haven't surpassed 33 since 2022 due to a spiking strikeout rate that's underpinned by contact rates that are as bad as almost any hitter in the majors, but while facing lesser pitching in Japan. Murakami also projects to be a first baseman in MLB but primarily played third base in Japan, with very limited experience at first thus far.
Some evaluators think his in-zone and off-speed whiff rates can be improved with mechanical/approach adjustments, even as he faces better pitching in the States, in part because of his age and bat speed. That's speculative, but the upside could be huge to get four full seasons out of a player in his 20s who's one of the best home run threats on the planet. So you can see how some are projecting six years at $20 million per year, but also how some teams are so scared of the downside that they wouldn't guarantee more than $50 million.
A reasonable expectation is that Murakami can be an immediate home run threat with a solid walk rate but a low average and not much in the way of baserunning or defensive value -- maybe Kyle Manzardo/Matt Wallner on the lower end, Spencer Torkelson as a medium comp and Brent Rooker as the hopeful outcome. A comp that also comes up for Murakami is Joey Gallo, who most fans think was always a bad player, but he did post 4.4 WAR in his age-27 season, and next year will be Murakami's age-26 season. Masataka Yoshida, going into his age-29 season, got $90 million from the Boston Red Sox before the 2023 season with a similar defensive profile but far less raw power.
I projected the all-in cost to acquire Murakami (including posting fee to his NPB club) to be just under $94 million. Many industry insiders think it will be well into nine figures, but nobody seems to know which team will pay that. I hedged a bit because there have to be at least two teams willing to go to that price for the bidding to get that high, though I'm unsure how big that group of teams will truly be.
The Yankees have a history of highly valuing exit velocity and age when it comes to acquiring players, so they're one of the rumored potential landing spots more because of their expected evaluation of Murakami, rather than needing power in the lineup from a corner position per se. The Chicago Cubs make sense, as Murakami would join an influx of young hitters (Matt Shaw, Moises Ballesteros, Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, Jonathon Long), while others either just entered free agency (Kyle Tucker) or are set to after next season (Ian Happ, Seiya Suzuki, Nico Hoerner). The Giants also make some sense, the Houston Astros could be a fit if they move Christian Walker's contract and the Toronto Blue Jays (if they don't land Tucker) could also be a landing spot.
However, given the potentially manageable AAV and upside, almost any team could justify jumping in on Murakami if their evaluations deem it reasonable.
Kazuma Okamoto, 3B
Okamoto, 29, led Japan's NPB in home runs since he entered the league in 2018 with 247, one more than Murakami. He doesn't offer the giant raw power or youth of Murakami but has a much steadier profile that likely draws a shorter-term contract.
Okamoto has plus raw power and a strong feel to get to that raw power in games, with the ability to pull and lift quality stuff. He's a right-handed hitter who will turn 30 in June and is likely a long-term first baseman, so his upside is somewhat limited. However, if he posts above-average on-base percentages and power numbers like he did in Japan, that's plenty to be an above-average everyday player in MLB.
While his homer totals dropped to 27 in 2024 and 15 in 2025 (when he was limited by an elbow injury), his batting average spiked to .280 and .327 over the past two seasons, along with his strikeout rate dropping to 16% and then 11%, respectively. Like Imai, Okamoto shows a broad base of skills, adjustability and performance that suggests he'll be able to continue making adjustments in MLB.
Unlike Murakami, Okamoto has played a lot of first base already, so there will be less of a breaking-in period as he's also getting used to big league pitching. I projected Okamoto's acquisition cost to be just under $43 million, including the posting fee, over three years, but I would not be surprised if a team added another year (possibly even two more) and/or paid a higher annual rate; I hedged a bit, possibly too much, due to the right-handed first baseman profile.
Okamoto could prove to be a cost-effective alternative to Pete Alonso (who projects for low nine figures) and can point to Yoshida's $90 million deal as a comp. The Mets, Astros, Yankees, Pirates, Marlins, San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks all seem to be in on the first base/designated hitter market to various degrees -- and could be looking for a cheaper option than signing Alonso, Kyle Schwarber or Murakami, where Okamoto is the fallback option.