There's a new No. 1 in our ESPN.com Future Power Rankings.
Ohio State has overtaken Alabama for the top spot in the third edition of our forecast of the next three years in college football. The Tide had been No. 1 in 2013 and 2014.
In 2015, Bama is one of eight SEC schools -- including two newcomers -- to crack the top 25.
It's important to note these rankings are a three-year projection, so read everything through a 2015-17 lens and don't focus solely on how programs will fare this fall.
Our voting panel has expanded to eight this year. Brad Edwards, Brock Huard, Tom Luginbill, Mark Schlabach and I are back for a third year. Joining us are ESPN.com College Football Playoff reporter Heather Dinich, ESPN Stats & Information analytics writer Sharon Katz and ESPN.com national reporter Adam Rittenberg.
We also slightly tweaked how we weighted the five categories, although the categories themselves -- Coaching (27 percent of the formula), Current Talent (27 percent), Recruiting (20 percent), Title Path (16 percent) and Program Foundation (10 percent) -- remained the same.
Beginning with the reigning national champs, here are the top 25 teams for the next three years.
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Big Ten FPR Rank: 1
Overall Score: 97.45
2014 Score: 89.95
The Buckeyes sit atop the college football world after last season's national title, and our panel expects them to stay there. Urban Meyer has an embarrassment of returning talent, and he and his staff have recruited so well that sustainability is a high probability.
Move over, Alabama and the SEC: Ohio State is here, and a dynasty for the Buckeyes is well within reason.
Highlight: Coaching
There's a resurgent case for Meyer as the best coach in the country. Did last year's playoff semifinal win against Alabama signal that shift?
"Meyer definitely closed the gap, but I'm not sure I'm ready to say he passed [Nick] Saban," Schlabach said. "I think it's clear Urb has the momentum heading into 2015, especially with the way Alabama closed the last couple of seasons.
"I don't think there's any question those two coaches are 1-A and 1-B in the pecking order right now. Each coach has won a national title at two different schools, and there aren't many coaches out there who are on the same level as them in terms of recruiting."
Lowlight: Title Path
The Bucks find themselves in an increasingly difficult division -- in part because of the guy hired by the School Up North. It's more than a one-game conference season for OSU.
"Ohio State has to worry about more than Michigan State going forward," Rittenberg said. "Penn State is certainly one to worry about -- they've won in Ohio Stadium lately -- and Michigan will be a concern in the future once [Jim] Harbaugh gets settled. But [Ohio State] is still always going to be the premier program in the conference, in the premier recruiting state in the conference, with the premier coach in the conference -- and maybe the country."
2. Alabama Crimson Tide
SEC FPR Rank: 1
Overall Score: 96.69
2014 Score: 94.60
It's true that the Tide are no longer No. 1, but it's not as if the program has fallen off the map. In fact, it's as strong as Ohio State in every area except schedule -- which is important when charting a three-year projection.
Worth remembering: Even in a "down" year in 2014, Alabama was still in the four-team playoff. How far has it fallen, really?
Highlight: Recruiting
Bama has earned 10s across the board in each of the three years we've done this project. Why is Nick Saban so good in this area? It harks back to the foundation category as much as recruiting, it turns out.
"Resources and process," Luginbill said. "When the university takes the approach that 'if football succeeds, the university succeeds,' you have a chance to be special when it comes to getting things done. If it has a direct effect on winning and losing, Alabama will get it done. It's as if they have unlimited resources when it comes to football.
"As it relates to process, it's all about a pro-personnel approach. Evaluate, evaluate and then evaluate some more. Adhere to strict principles of what you want in a player and dissect each and every player for flaws and critical factors. This philosophy is being adopted by more and more programs across the country each year because it works."
Lowlight: Coaching
Hang on. Coaching is a low point? With a rating again pushing a perfect 10, how could that be? One of our panelists -- the only one who gave Saban a 9 -- has a theory worth consideration.
"The numbers bear out that his defenses are not as dominant when they're not able to make the adjustments and the situational substitutions," Edwards said, referring to something Saban himself talked about last summer as a concern. "You're talking about a perfect score, and I don't think a defensive-minded coach has enough control of a game to get a perfect score. I just don't think in today's college football world, with the prevalence of up-tempo offenses, that a defensive-minded coach can have enough of an impact once the game is underway. He can't have enough of an impact to be a 10. Someone who's on offense and is the playcaller can have that kind of impact, a tremendous impact."
3. Florida State Seminoles
ACC FPR Rank: 1
Overall Score: 94.99
2014 Score: 90.35
If you're a Seminoles fan, this is a great sign: Our panel believes FSU will have staying power beyond the success it had while Jameis Winston was playing quarterback. Jimbo Fisher's program is recruiting at an extremely high level, rivaling Nos. 1 and 2 above, and the Noles are in the correct league to cruise and remain relevant in the title conversation.
Highlight: Foundation
We've seen this category rise by a point and a half since 2013. What's going on in Tallahassee?
"I can think of about 5 million reasons why FSU's foundation has improved over the past few seasons," Schlabach said. "With a $5 million annual salary, FSU's brass obviously believes Jimbo Fisher is among the top five coaches in the country, and for good reason. With increases in assistants' salaries, the recent addition of an indoor practice facility -- and the way FSU's administration backed Fisher during some of the off-field issues over the past couple of seasons -- I think it's obvious that he has everything in place to make a sustained run like Bobby Bowden did in the 1980s and 1990s."
Lowlight: Coaching
Fisher is climbing, certainly, but what would it take for him to be considered on the same line as Meyer and Saban?
"He's had two really good seasons. Both were with a quarterback who won the Heisman and then was the No. 1 pick in the draft," Edwards said. "The previous years at FSU, [Fisher] had first-round quarterbacks and he didn't have the same kind of success. So for Jimbo, it's not that I doubt his ability to coach. I want to see in the next two or three seasons if he can make a playoff with a different quarterback.
"Jimbo has recruited so well that you would think he just needs a good quarterback -- not necessarily a great one -- to be able to be a national championship contender, because of the talent he has everywhere else on the field. But I want to see him get to the playoff with someone other than Jameis as his quarterback before I move him up a notch."
4. Auburn Tigers
SEC FPR Rank: 2
Overall Score: 86.62
2014 Score: 83.60
The Tigers are seeing gains in most every category outside of schedule, and that part isn't changing anytime soon because of the perils of the SEC West. Adding Will Muschamp to coach the defense only bolstered the perception of Auburn's coaching profile, and Muschamp will help in the recruiting area, as well.
Highlight: Talent
Coinciding with Gus Malzahn's return, Auburn has seen its FPR talent score increase by 35 percent since 2013.
"There is no secret that Malzahn gets his offensive players to the NFL," Huard said. "Combine that with one of the more renowned defensive coordinators in college football and you skyrocket up the talent rankings. Besides Ohio State, I have found no program more talked about this offseason than Auburn. The eyes of the college football world -- and NFL scouting world -- will be watching the Plains closely this fall."
Lowlight: Title Path
Let's be blunt: Does Saban have to retire for Auburn to climb -- and stay -- above Alabama in the SEC West pecking order?
"Heck, no," Dinich said. "Is there any better way to be considered 'sustainably above Alabama' than to win the Iron Bowl repeatedly with Saban still there? He's one of the best coaches in the country, but he's not invincible. Urban Meyer can vouch for that.
"If you're forecasting it purely from the perspective of what Auburn looks like under Gus Malzahn, it looks pretty darn good. Will Muschamp as defensive coordinator was a terrific hire. Malzahn is only entering his third season, and he's already beaten Saban once and played for a national title. Not a bad start toward 'sustainably.'"
5. LSU Tigers
SEC FPR Rank: 3
Overall Score: 85.98
2014 Score: 85.60
The Tigers are No. 5 in the project -- yet they're third in their own division. This is as under-the-radar as Les Miles' program has been in several years, which is typically when his teams have been dangerous. Miles is starting to feel a little heat in Baton Rouge, but our panel still has plenty of faith in LSU's three-year stability. Can it catch Alabama and/or Auburn, though?
Highlight: Talent
A strong case can be made that LSU has the best young offensive (RB Leonard Fournette) and defensive (S Jamal Adams) players in the country, and we're making it. Both are sophomores who could win a number of awards in the next two seasons, perhaps a Heisman among them.
"This team is young and gifted, and if they get solid quarterback production, look out," Luginbill said. "If not, they are still talented enough to win nine games. How many teams can you say that about?"
Lowlight: Coaching
Miles is 103-29 at LSU, and he's got a ring. Yet there was only one 9 for him in the coaching category. What gives? He's goofy, sure, but Miles is a winner.
"Expectations are the biggest problem for him," Rittenberg said. "You're in such a great recruiting area with high-, high-level prospects. When you have that advantage, there's this expectation that you should be in the SEC championship game or a BCS bowl game every year. ... The dynamic in the division definitely has something to do with it.
"His in-game coaching gets scrutinized as much as anyone, but I bet a lot of fans would love to see their coach do what he does and take chances."
6. USC Trojans
Pac-12 FPR Rank: 1
Overall Score: 84.45
2014 Score: 81.70
With the Trojans now free from NCAA restrictions, expectations are quickly soaring as the team enters Steve Sarkisian's second season. The staff has excelled in recruiting. The cupboard is stocked. Even in an exceptionally deep division, USC stands out.
As early as this fall, there's no real reason the Trojans shouldn't make at least one playoff appearance in the three-year window. No pressure or anything.
Highlight: Talent
USC has vaulted three points in this category since the project began in 2013. Seeing receiver JuJu Smith and utility guy Adoree' Jackson excel as freshmen had to help. Plus there's Cody Kessler, as steady a veteran quarterback as there is in the country.
"The sanctions are gone, and USC is basking in the light at the end of the tunnel," Huard said. "Expectations are climbing back to the Pete Carroll-era level, and the depth of playmakers on the roster is beginning to get close enough to realize those lofty expectations. Offensive and defensive line depth still isn't back to national title levels, but Sark and his staff have always been seen as excellent recruiters. They know the holes still left to patch."
Lowlight: Coaching
Even with the Trojans ranked this highly -- and coming off a nine-win first season -- the coaching staff is slotted as low as any in the top 15. How badly does Sark need a breakout season in '15?
"It should be his breakout season. Expectations should be high," Dinich said. "He's got 16 starters back from last year's nine-win season, including a Heisman hopeful QB in Cody Kessler and a phenomenal athlete in Adoree' Jackson. Depth remains a question because it's still going to take about two more years before the roster is back at full strength. They've also got road trips to Arizona State, Notre Dame and Oregon in '15.
"Given all that USC has been through, Sark has earned some time and leeway this fall, but if he doesn't make good on his claims that the future is 'ridiculously bright,' then his future at USC will be short-lived."
7. Clemson Tigers
ACC FPR Rank: 2
Overall Score: 81.95
2014 Score: 78.10
The Tigers have knocked on the door of elite success in this era of the sport, but they've never been able to walk through. Clemson has been limited by its own failures, but FSU's re-emergence has been an even bigger roadblock.
Really, it just has to stay the current course. Clemson's administrative support, recruiting efforts and talent pool are not far off the Seminoles' pace. It would not be surprising to see the Tigers in a playoff in the coming seasons.
Highlight: Title path
Dinich: "Competing in the ACC is a double-edged sword for the Tigers because the selection committee could hold the weaknesses of the conference against them. They're not going to get many bonus points for beating, say, Duke in the ACC championship game. But it's also an advantage because Florida State and Louisville should continue to be the lone consistent roadblocks. In order to compensate for what the ACC lacks in SOS, the Tigers can schedule aggressively in the nonconference slate -- and they do. Games against rival South Carolina, a rotational game with Notre Dame and an opponent like Auburn can -- and will -- continue to help their playoff résumé."
Lowlight: Coaching
Former offensive coordinator Chad Morris' arrival coincided with Clemson becoming the kind of program that could win an ACC title. Without him, is it going to take a step back?
It shouldn't, Edwards said. Not with such a prodigious young quarterback as Deshaun Watson.
"I think their talent is at a point where it would be difficult for an offensive coordinator to screw it up, with the talent they have versus the schedule they play," Edwards said. "I don't know that having a great offensive season would validate Dabo [Swinney], necessarily. But if [Watson] is healthy and the offense isn't clicking, the natural reaction will be, 'Wow, that was all Chad Morris.'"
8. Georgia Bulldogs
SEC FPR Rank: 4
Overall Score: 81.92
2014 Score: 79.20
Georgia typically lands in this project's top 10, but it's a complicated choice with respect to the next three years. Fans are increasingly grumpy with Mark Richt, who cannot seem to get the Bulldogs to an elite level -- despite what this ranking suggests is possible.
Working in UGA's favor: At least it's in the SEC East, the far more winnable of the league's two divisions. That said, the Bulldogs last won the East in 2012. They'll be heavy favorites in '15, and they'd better be in the SEC title game or the internal tension will only mount.
Highlight: Recruiting
Luginbill said he believes the state of Georgia, per capita, is stronger than California for recruiting. As the talent-rich state's capital and chief recruiting hub, Atlanta is hard to beat.
"I would put Atlanta and its surrounding areas above Houston and Dallas," Luginbill said.
There are literally dozens of programs trying to wiggle into Georgia and Atlanta to poach prospects, but they're not UGA. As the flagship, the Bulldogs are still pulling more than most schools.
Lowlight: Coaching
Is there any way to explain why Richt seems to underachieve more seasons than not at Georgia?
"It's really hard to say," Rittenberg said. "It's almost like you can count on it every year that they're going to have a game or two where they don't show up. It was Florida last year. I wonder if he manages emotions well enough from week to week. It's bizarre because they're so well-located for recruiting and produce so many great NFL players. They just don't seem to maybe have the mental makeup of some of these other teams in the league. There's too many games that they don't show up for."
9. Texas Longhorns
Big 12 FPR Rank: 1
Overall Score: 81.01
2014 Score: 78.35
After one 6-7 Texas season, our panel has not seen enough from Charlie Strong to feel fully confident in the program's trajectory. Resources and recruiting turf, as good as any in the country, keep the Longhorns relevant and in our top 10.
Highlight: Foundation
Since this project began in 2013, 10s are the norm for Texas when it comes to infrastructure and history.
"It just seems like a bottomless pit of money. It really does," Rittenberg said. "There are so many resources, big-time booster support and widespread support. You're in a great city, have tradition; you're the premier program in the state. They're still choosing the top prospects, whereas Baylor and TCU might have to work harder to get those players. It's still Texas."
Lowlight: Coaching
Schlabach: "I really want to see Texas beat a team that matters this season before I can say the Longhorns have turned the corner under Strong. I think he did a good job getting UT to a bowl game in his first season, but the Horns only beat two teams last season that were remotely good: West Virginia and Oklahoma State. Worse, the Longhorns weren't very competitive against most of the best teams they played, like Baylor, Kansas State, TCU and Arkansas. I need to see more out of UT's offense, too. We know Strong's teams are going to play hellacious defense, but the Horns have to find a way to move the ball and score."
10. Oregon Ducks
Pac-12 FPR Rank: 2
Overall Score: 80.76
2014 Score: 75.75
Reaching the national title game was a big step for Mark Helfrich as he works to establish himself -- and get away from any comparisons to his predecessor, Chip Kelly. Winning a title would have done wonders for Helfrich. As it is, the questions persist about his ability to keep Oregon on top of the Pac-12 -- especially with quarterback Marcus Mariota gone. Surely, though, Nike CEO Phil Knight will not let his program fall all that far.
Highlight: Talent
Oregon lost a Heisman-winning quarterback, yet our panel didn't ding the Ducks any in the talent department when compared with a year ago. What inspires such confidence in what they're returning?
"They're always going to have tremendous speed and skill, multiple running backs and wide receivers," Rittenberg said. "This team, from a skill standpoint, will be deeper than last year's team. There's a huge question at quarterback, obviously, but you can count on that they're going to bring in options at receiver and running back every year."
The question, really, is the defense.
"I think they were underrated under [previous coordinator] Nick Aliotti; I don't know if the current regime will produce the defenses that they need," Rittenberg said. "They don't need to be elite, but there's certainly things they have to do that they didn't do enough of last season, maybe. Are they going to have elite nose tackles? Are they going to bring in the type of safeties they need? That's where I have questions."
Lowlight: Coaching
Without Mariota, it's as if Helfrich is starting over again in the effort to prove himself.
"Mark Helfrich's first task was to maintain the program excellence Chip built, and Mariota was the foundation and backbone of that pursuit," Huard said. "Now, the real challenge begins in a conference that keeps getting deeper and better. The Ducks have to tackle that without the certainty and confidence that a franchise quarterback brings. This will be a significantly more difficult task, and the Vernon Adams transfer adds a level of boom-or-bust to the equation."
11. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Independent FPR Rank: 1
Overall Score: 80.36
2014 Score: 78.85
Now three seasons removed from a title game appearance, the Irish remain in the national conversation. They even weathered realignment by hitching themselves to the ACC, a genius move considering it's likely the weakest of the Power 5 conferences. Notre Dame can dip its toe in the conference waters without fully committing and losing the benefits of being independent. And if it needs to make a move in the coming years, it can grandfather itself into a league -- a highly winnable one, at that.
Highlight: Foundation
Schlabach: "Notre Dame's brand still carries a lot of weight, especially with its home games still being broadcast nationally on NBC. I think Brian Kelly has proved he's the coach who can return the Irish to the upper echelon, and there isn't anything in place -- other than the university's stringent academic standards -- that would hamper him from fielding a top-10 team every season."
Lowlight: Title Path
The Irish do not have a conference title game, which the playoff committee sure seemed to value in Year 1. But they have at least moved toward joining a conference.
"My guess is that it will help Notre Dame more than it hurts because the Irish have the liberty to schedule as aggressively as they want, whereas other schools are forced to play the weaker opponents in their league -- which does nothing to boost their playoff résumé," Dinich said. "Meanwhile, Notre Dame is at Clemson. At Stanford. Home against USC. It has Texas and Georgia Tech. The Irish will always be an X factor in the playoff as long as they continue to give themselves those opportunities."
12. TCU Horned Frogs
Big 12 FPR Rank: 2
Overall Score: 79.83
2014 Score: N/A
The Frogs were not even in our top 25 a year ago, but count the panel among the believers after the team's 12-1 season in 2014. Perhaps we just needed to see TCU prove it belongs in the Big 12. Coach Gary Patterson's integration of a hurry-up offense was a huge reason why; that adaptability helped Patterson earn a huge bump in the coaching category.
Highlight: Coaching
Edwards: "It's one thing to do it in the Mountain West; it's another to do it in the Big 12. Not just to do it but to make that turnaround as quickly as he has. That's impressive. It's not like they were coming into the conference with no talent, but it's a different level of play. They had to recruit to that, if for nothing else than depth purposes.
"I was amazed by his ability to adapt. If you're a defensive coach at heart, it's very difficult to do something that you know is going to put your defense in a situation where it gives up more points. But that's what he did, embracing the up-tempo [offense] and being willing to commit to that."
Lowlight: Recruiting
Moving to the Big 12 was expected to provide a boost to TCU's recruiting. The early results haven't shown much of a spike, but Luginbill said it's going to happen in time. There's a balance to be struck, too.
"They eventually will be a recruiting power as perceptions change and on-field production continues to improve," Luginbill said. "However, while they may have more access to higher-profile players, it would be a mistake to abandon the type of player that has gotten them to this point.
"This may be the greatest recruiting staff in the country at projecting future talent and production. Dance with who brought you, and litter the classes with some impact guys along the way."
13. Texas A&M Aggies
SEC FPR Rank: 5
Overall Score: 79.60
2014 Score: 78.10
The Aggies are seeing lots of benefits of being in the SEC, but it's also proving difficult to climb a ladder with Alabama, Auburn and LSU at the top. They're currently lodged in a mass that includes Arkansas, Ole Miss and Mississippi State -- capable programs that have been unable to join that top tier.
The difference: Those other schools are not in Texas, where the prospects are plentiful, and they do not have A&M's resources and support. So there's reason to believe the Aggies can get to the highest level of the division, quite possibly in the next three years.
Highlight: Foundation
In an age when most everything built is smaller and things are fiscally tighter, A&M is in the midst of a $450 million stadium project that includes expanding capacity to more than 100,000.
It's quite possible no school in America wants to win as badly as Texas A&M.
"The Aggies seem to be burning their SEC money as fast as they're earning it," Schlabach said. "From Kevin Sumlin's $5 million annual salary to the extravagant stadium and facility upgrades, Texas A&M's administration is all-in when it comes to football. With Texas struggling, the Aggies realize there's an opportunity for them to make some noise in the state. Of course, the Aggies now have to contend with Baylor and TCU, too."
Lowlight: Title Path
How close is our panel getting to losing faith in A&M breaking through in the extremely difficult SEC West? This year could be the make-or-break season for Sumlin and his program, especially after the hire of veteran defensive coordinator John Chavis.
"If they don't improve on defense, they have some real trouble, and you can ask the big-picture questions about his tenure," Rittenberg said. "If it doesn't happen this year and it's another '8-5'-type year -- especially with what's going on around the division -- I think those are fair questions. And can he win a championship without a [Johnny] Manziel? How much of his rise was because of that guy and everything he did, being such a once-in-however-many-years player in college football?"
So, what sort of year will the Aggies have?
"It's hard to see them being any higher than fourth or fifth [in the SEC West]," Rittenberg added, "so those questions probably will really start to pop up."
14. Baylor Bears
Big 12 FPR Rank: 3
Overall Score: 79.54
2014 Score: 74.05
After a second consecutive Big 12 title, the Bears continue to build momentum at a rapid rate. Our panel reflects that, too; they're up five spots from 2014. Year after year, Baylor is proving it is a sustainably solid program, one of the leaders in the conference.
Highlight: Coaching
Art Briles is up two full points since the project began in 2013. He has become a household name in the college football world.
Katz: "I gave Briles a high mark because Baylor has consistently been a top team despite never having a top recruiting class. He has shaped an offense that has ranked in the top two in offensive efficiency each of the last four years, and no matter who he plugs in at quarterback, the offense seems to work. Defensively, Baylor is underrated, so I can see the Bears sustaining their success over the next three years."
Lowlight: Recruiting
The Bears aren't signing classes like Texas or Texas A&M (not yet, anyway), but there is serious progress being made on the recruiting front. In fact, there are plenty of comparisons to be made between Baylor's recruiting strategy -- speed, speed and more speed at the skill spots -- and the one employed for years by Oregon. Nike swag isn't the only link between the two programs.
"Perception is 90 percent reality, and right now perception is at an all-time high for the Bears," Luginbill said. "They have the 'cool factor' similar to Oregon, and it resonates with kids. They have had the luxury of recruiting similar to TCU in the sense that they have no outside pressure to recruit who others think they should, which gives the staff a lot of freedom to recruit who they want. Player development has led to wins, which has enhanced their perception and gotten their foot in the door for higher-profile prospects."
15. Michigan Wolverines
Big Ten FPR Rank: 2
Overall Score: 77.31
2014 Score: 74.00
Jim Harbaugh hasn't yet coached a down at his alma mater, and already the program is riding a wave of momentum. Edwards expects a "tougher" Wolverines program, even as Harbaugh works to get talented players on campus.
"Going back to Stanford, before we knew Andrew Luck, we learned about Toby Gerhart and a tough-nosed run game," Edwards said. "His first impact at Stanford was making it a tougher team. He will do that at Michigan, too."
The bar has been set low, especially on offense -- and specifically the offensive line.
Highlight: Coaching
Harbaugh has been highly entertaining since taking the job, no question about that, but what's fair to expect from him in this three-year window?
"If they improve certain areas, they're going to have a chance to compete with Michigan State and Ohio State," Rittenberg said. "The offensive line has to get better. If that's one place where you can see progress, they'll be on a better course in the following two years. In Years 2 and 3, depending on quarterback development and if the offensive line can course-correct, they should be competing for a league title. I think that would be disappointing if they weren't because of the staff and their ability to recruit."
Lowlight: Title Path
Tracking down Ohio State is the goal, and the Buckeyes have a decided lead.
"I would be shocked if, three years from now, we think they're even with Ohio State," Edwards said, "but I think three years is plenty of time to close that gap and become competitive. Just look at the head-to-head the last two years. Those games have been close. It's not like Ohio State is blowing them off the field. It's just overall where there's disparity.
"You know, though, first they've got to become the best team in the state again. They've got to catch Michigan State. There's a toughness and belief in what they're doing [at Michigan State] that Michigan has to match."
16. Tennessee Volunteers
SEC FPR Rank: 6
Overall Score: 77.30
2014 Score: N/A
Welcome back, Tennessee. Butch Jones has created an air of hope in Knoxville. The results -- a 7-6 season that included a TaxSlayer Bowl win over Iowa -- were modest in 2014, but there's enough positivity for the panel to get on board with the Volunteers' rebound in the next two or three seasons.
Highlight: Recruiting
Luginbill: "[Jones'] process and blueprint are second to none. He has a plan and knows how to implement it. Now he has the resources from an administrative standpoint to execute the plan. He's been successful everywhere he's been. Kids want a plan and they want structure, and Butch Jones provides both. Tennessee's facilities are now second to none. From a football operations standpoint, they have the infrastructure needed to achieve and maintain greatness long term."
Lowlight: Title Path
As far as the Vols have climbed, what's next on the road to "back?"
"I want to see the Volunteers close games and beat some of the SEC's upper-echelon teams," Schlabach said. "We know the Vols are good enough to beat Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and they might have South Carolina's number, but they have to figure out a way to beat Alabama, Georgia or Missouri to show me that they've really headed in the right direction. We've heard all about their recruiting successes under Butch Jones the past three seasons, but it's time to start seeing some real results on the field."
17. Oklahoma Sooners
Big 12 FPR Rank: 4
Overall Score: 77.24
2014 Score: 81.85
The Sooners plummeted 10 spots from a year ago, no longer riding the high from the Sugar Bowl win against Alabama. The flubbed ending this past fall against rival Oklahoma State -- then being clobbered by Clemson in the Russell Athletic Bowl -- has cast some doubt on the program's future. Coach Bob Stoops, seeking a shake-up, even let go of his two offensive coordinators. This program is trending down; can Stoops again prop it up?
Highlight: Foundation
Despite decided bumps in 2011 and 2014, Stoops has not run for the door. Those close to him say stability in the president's and athletic director's offices are a major reason he's still in Norman -- and hopeful about turning around the program.
Oklahoma's deep-rooted tradition is nice, but it doesn't mean as much in this age of college football. Loyalty from president David Boren and AD Joe Castiglione is more important; a lot of coaches would love to have stable, supportive bosses like them.
OU is also planning a $160 million renovation of its stadium soon, with a new weight room and fitness facility among the updated amenities.
Lowlight: Talent
Stoops did make those changes to the offensive staff, but perhaps he needed to take a longer look at the defense. Edwards' research showed that, of the past 11 OU defenses, the past three have been the worst in terms of Expected Points Added. That means forcing turnovers and three-and-outs have been at all-time lows under Stoops, especially turnovers.
The Sooners were 75th in takeaways in 2014 and 104th in 2012. They had five takeaways in the final eight games last season.
"They have not been making a lot of big plays in terms of swinging momentum," Edwards said.
18. Michigan State Spartans
Big Ten FPR Rank: 3
Overall Score: 76.99
2014 Score: 74.50
The Spartans broke through in 2014 with the Big Ten title game upset of FPR No. 1 Ohio State and the subsequent Rose Bowl victory against Stanford. They followed it up with a Cotton Bowl win against Baylor in 2015. Year by year, they're showing the "little brother" label is gone and MSU is going to be a consistent factor in the conference and national conversations. This is no fluke.
Highlight: Coaching
Mark Dantonio is on a short list of the country's most underrated coaches, and he just might be No. 1.
"Dantonio should be getting more credit for what he's done in East Lansing," Dinich said. "Four 11-win seasons in the past five years? LSU hasn't done that. Auburn hasn't done it. Neither has Georgia or Florida State. You know who has? Alabama and Oregon. That's pretty good company."
Michigan State very rarely cracks the top 25, let alone top 10, in recruiting rankings. But it does in the actual rankings.
"It speaks to the job he does at putting together a team," Edwards said. "The whole is greater than the sum of the parts."
Lowlight: Title Path
There's a decent chance Michigan State could be the odd team out with Michigan, Ohio State and, to a lesser extent, Penn State surging in the division.
One position -- quarterback -- could determine whether the Spartans fade in the coming seasons.
In 2016, MSU will have to replace Connor Cook. It isn't dissimilar to 2012, when the Spartans struggled to find a successor for Kirk Cousins. It took a year-plus before Cook emerged. In the tougher division, MSU might not have a year to spend looking for its next quarterback.
"Everyone's worried about losing [defensive coordinator] Pat Narduzzi, but the system is so set there. Dantonio is such a phenomenal evaluator of talent on defense," Rittenberg said. "Connor Cook could wind up being the best quarterback in school history. How are you going to replace him? If they can find a guy at quarterback who isn't a huge drop-off from Cook, they'll be OK. It's not obvious who the next guy is. That's the biggest thing for them."
19. UCLA Bruins
Pac-12 FPR Rank: 3
Overall Score: 76.48
2014 Score: 74.70
The Bruins have scored three more victories in the past three years than their crosstown rivals, but the panel sees post-sanction USC taking off while UCLA hangs in the same range it occupied a year ago. Still, Jim Mora has built a sustainably competitive program in the Pac-12 South. The Bruins are close to taking the next step.
Highlight: Recruiting
The Bruins had ESPN RecruitingNation's No. 11 class in 2015 and No. 12 group in 2013. Mora's NFL background has been an asset in recruiting, Luginbill said.
"That resonates with kids nowadays more than ever," Luginbill said, "and perhaps more importantly, his personality is the ideal marriage between coach and player in today's college football world. He's the right blend of fire, discipline and fun. Keep in mind, it always helps when you arrive and have a quarterback that can elevate the program quickly."
In blue-chip freshman Josh Rosen, who just might be the starter for this entire three-year window, he has a QB who is capable of taking the Bruins to another level.
Lowlight: Title Path
Edwards: "For UCLA, recruiting against USC in that area, it's going to be tough. What's the ceiling? I think UCLA can be a consistent top-20 program that can have seasons in which it is in the top 10. I don't think, by any stretch, that it's out of the realm of possibilities for UCLA to be a playoff contender or a contender to win the Pac-12, but I don't think there's going to be a time when you look at UCLA as the team to beat.
"You know, the ceiling in the next three years could be defined by Josh Rosen and what he does."
20. Stanford Cardinal
Pac-12 FPR Rank: 4
Overall Score: 76.19
2014 Score: 75.15
The Cardinal dropped five spots from a year ago, a reaction perhaps to the program's lowest win total since David Shaw took over in 2011. With nine returning starters on offense, and 13 overall, some of our West Coast experts are predicting a rebound from Stanford this season as Oregon finds its way without Mariota.
Highlight: Coaching
Despite the slip in the FPR, Shaw's measurement as a coach held steady. The biggest threat to that continues to be the possibility that Shaw would bolt for the NFL. One of our panelists, however, doesn't see that as an issue.
"You can feel the genuine sense of pride Shaw has in the program," Huard said. "He has no intentions of leaving anytime soon."
Lowlight: Title Path
The Pac-12 South has become the more difficult division in the league; the North still has plenty of land mines, though, most notably Oregon. Katz noted the Ducks have won 10-plus games in seven straight seasons, tied with Alabama for the most of any school.
Stanford's style has given it the edge against Oregon in recent head-to-head meetings. Even if that continues to be true, the up-and-coming South still provides one final roadblock to the playoff.
21. Florida Gators
SEC FPR Rank: 7
Overall Score: 74.99
2014 Score: 75.15
The SEC's premier program a decade or so ago, Florida has fallen every year of this project. But few programs have the potential the Gators possess.
Now it's on new coach Jim McElwain to energize the program in virtually every way, especially when it comes to scoring points. McElwain is urging caution in Year 1, slow-playing expectation, but our panel might be undervaluing his ability to spark Florida in a three-year window.
Highlight: Recruiting
Wait, shouldn't Florida -- with a new coach settling in -- be higher than an 8.1 in recruiting? Shouldn't that be an area in which the Gators shine, given that they're situated in such a talent-rich state?
As good as the area is for recruiting, one of our panelists said that could backfire. He called it a "potential coach-killer."
"Sure, the demographics and locale set up well for the Gators," Huard said, "but with Florida State's run of recent success, recruiting budgets flush with more capital than ever before, and some of college football's best recruiters spending their time, energy and resources in Florida, it's not as easy as it would seem for the Gators. McElwain has to first turn around the win-loss column."
Lowlight: Talent
Florida's talent level is rated at 7.5. How in the world did this sink so low, and can McElwain return it to where Meyer had it in the past decade?
"Will Muschamp would be the first person to tell you that he made some serious tactical errors in terms of offense," Schlabach said. "His biggest mistake was hiring Charlie Weis as his offensive coordinator when he took the job, and the problems only seemed to get worse from there. The Gators need serious upgrades at the skill positions and on the offensive line, and it's not going to be corrected overnight.
"McElwain might be the right guy for the job, but it's going to take some time, which probably isn't what UF fans want to hear after the last couple of seasons."
22. Ole Miss Rebels
SEC FPR Rank: 8
Overall Score: 71.50
2014 Score: N/A
Another SEC program new to the rankings, Rebels coach Hugh Freeze has won seven, eight and nine games in his first three seasons. At this continued rate, Ole Miss will have a title by the end of the three-year window. And it really would if Freeze could secure at least a couple of recruiting classes like the one he landed in 2013. That's easier said than done, but Ole Miss is definitely trending in the right direction.
Highlight: Foundation
The school's infrastructure is up two points from a year ago, a real sign of growth. Heck, Ole Miss wasn't even considered for the initial FPR in 2013.
Facilities are on the way up, in a hurry. So is fan support, in terms of attendance and giving.
"They're starting to have success after a long dry spell -- and they're getting fan buy-in," Edwards said. "The problem is that, in the SEC, all you're doing is not falling farther behind. To not do that would be program suicide because everyone is spending the money. As great as it is for Ole Miss, I don't know that it's doing much other than keeping them in the game."
Lowlight: Recruiting
Luginbill: "I said on our signing day broadcast when they signed their top-five 2013 class that one class is great but it would take several more to sustain long-term success. They have since recorded back-to-back top-20 classes -- but quarterback is the key. They need a difference-maker, not just a guy. If that happens, Ole Miss will be rolling because the defensive and offensive skill is in place. The pieces of the puzzle are in place, but a 10-win season and SEC West championship would do them wonders."
23. Louisville Cardinals
ACC FPR Rank: 3
Overall Score: 71.44
2014 Score: 70.45
Bobby Petrino and Charlie Strong did wonders to elevate the program's stature, and Petrino is back for his second term -- and for the transition into the ACC. The sense among coaches and those in the sport is that the Cardinals are already just a half-step behind FSU and Clemson in the league. Resources are there. Petrino will score some points, when he gets players for his system. The Cards are on the way to joining the Noles and Tigers on the ACC's top shelf.
Highlight: Coaching
Petrino is 92-34 as a college coach. He's won a bunch of games. Is he past his off-field issues? Is there any reason to believe he wouldn't be at Louisville by the end of this three-year window?
"The only reason would be if he screws up again off the field, leaving AD Tom Jurich no choice but to fire him," Dinich said. "You would think Petrino is indebted to Jurich, humbled and grateful, and willing to do everything possible to take advantage of this second chance. His ability to coach isn't a question. If he truly has changed, his tenure there shouldn't be a question, either."
Lowlight: Talent
Louisville just placed 10 players in this year's NFL draft. They were holdovers from Strong's tenure. Could Petrino replicate that, or anything close to it? There's a certain rebuild to come after seeing that emigration.
"It's going to be a different type of team," Rittenberg said. "To expect this staff to find and develop that type of talent on defense is unrealistic, but in Petrino's second, third, fourth year, you can count on him having one of the best offenses in the country. His track record everywhere he's been suggests that's going to happen. They can definitely be one of the top two or three offenses in the ACC, depending on Clemson and FSU."
24. Penn State Nittany Lions
Big Ten FPR Rank: 4
Overall Score: 70.76
2014 Score: 71.20
The dark clouds of the Jerry Sandusky scandal are parting, and James Franklin's positivity has gone a long way in making that horrible stretch a distant memory for Penn Staters. The NCAA pardoning the Lions' remaining sanctions helped, too. Now it's time for Franklin and his staff to build quality depth, and work to keep the program above water as Ohio State and Michigan State surge -- and Michigan begins to catch fire, as well.
Highlight: Recruiting
Is Franklin a carnival barker, a good coach or both?
"I think he's a very good recruiter, but I think the jury is out on how good of a coach he is," Edwards said. "As most coaches will tell you, the first thing is having players. Players make the coach look good. You have to give him credit as a recruiter.
"There are plenty of examples of guys who were very good recruiters and average coaches who won lots of games. I don't know that you can say that yet about Franklin, but we'll see."
Lowlight: Title Path
We'd probably like the Lions a lot more if they were in the Big Ten West. There are simply too many mountains to climb in the East.
"I don't see Penn State atop that division anytime in the next three years," Katz said. "At this point, there is too big of a gap between Penn State and the other top teams. If there is something positive to take away from last season, however, the Nittany Lions had a top defense and played some of those top teams close."
25. Arizona State Sun Devils
Pac-12 FPR Rank: 5
Overall Score: 68.14
2014 Score: N/A
The Sun Devils joined the back end of the top 25 on the heels of Todd Graham's second straight 10-win season. There's recruiting potential, locally in Phoenix and with the proximity to Southern California. Graham and his staff have proved adept at finding high-end junior college talent. They have done enough in three years to be considered regular contenders in the crowded Pac-12 South.
Highlight: Coaching
Graham is no longer a punch line for annually changing employers. He's bringing stability to Tempe. No joke.
"He has done a really good job and made a trip to the desert a nightmare for a number of foes," Huard said. "The punch line never had to do with Graham's coaching chops; it had everything to do with his willingness to napalm bridges others coaches wouldn't.
"Graham will be defined and judged by his longevity and ultimate departure from Tempe as much as he will by his wins and losses -- though the two are obviously linked."
Lowlight: Title Path
Dinich: "The Pac-12 South should be starting its argument now that it's just as deep and tough as the big, bad SEC West, and Arizona State is one of the reasons why. Whether ASU can sustain its success is debatable, and it's more likely that the Sun Devils continue to look up at USC in the standings, but it's definitely a program that can exceed expectations and occasionally take some teams by surprise."