Broaden your focus for a moment, past the nitty-gritty details of the schedules and two-deeps and likely storylines for the 2013 college football season, and ask yourself this: Which programs are most likely to be successful, not just this year, but over the next three?
That's exactly what we asked our panel of experts, and below we offer you the fruits of their labor: A top-25 ranking of the teams most likely to compete for and win championships over the next three seasons. Or, as we like to call it, the College Football Future Power Rankings.
Will resurgent programs like Notre Dame, Texas A&M and UCLA continue to climb the national title pecking order? Will struggling powers like Oklahoma, Texas and USC be able to stop their respective declines? And does anyone have a chance of taking over Alabama's throne as the top program in college football?
Our panel of experts -- Travis Haney, Brock Huard, Tom Luginbill, Todd McShay and Mark Schlabach -- found answers to these questions by rating programs in five different categories (Coaching, Current Talent, Recruiting, Title Path and Program Power) to generate an overall score. (For more information on how these rankings were put together, click here.) They then weighed in with their analysis on each team.
Here you have it: The top 25 college football programs for the next three seasons.
1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25
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The bar graphs reflect the average rating given by the voters for each category.
Category averages are weighted by importance to generate overall score.
Coaching: There was no doubt among our panelists as to which program has the best coaching situation in the country going forward. "Nick Saban's 'process' is the envy of every other team in the country," says Schlabach. "As long as he's there, they're going to be at the very top." And our panel is betting that Saban will continue to be on the Crimson Tide's sideline the next three seasons. "I don't think he's at an age where he's looking to seek out a new challenge," Luginbill says of the 61-year-old Saban. "I think he wants to see if he can create, quite possibly, the greatest dynasty in the history of college football."
Current Talent: In addition to established stars like QB AJ McCarron, RB T.J. Yeldon, WR Amari Cooper, OT Cyrus Kouandjio, LB C.J. Mosley and FS Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, there is young talent ready to step in after them. RB Derrick Henry, WR Chris Black, FS Landon Collins and LB Ryan Anderson are among the guys to keep an eye on. As is tight end O.J. Howard. "If there's one position where they haven't had a true difference-maker since Saban has been there, it's at tight end," says Luginbill. "Howard could be that guy."
Recruiting: The anatomy of a perfect 10 rating: The Crimson Tide haven't finished outside the top three in ESPN's recruiting class rankings since 2007, and they're coming off back-to-back No. 1 classes. They currently own the No. 2 class for 2014 on the strength of highly ranked pocket passer David Cornwell's recent commitment.
Title Path: This was the only category in which the Tide slipped a little, a credit to the ultracompetitive SEC West. But as Alabama has shown in the past two seasons, it's possible for an SEC team to withstand a conference loss and still make it to the national championship game.
Program Power: As important as Saban is, our experts agree that Alabama's facilities, resources and institutional support contribute greatly to the program's success. "You have every resource at your disposal there to win long term. It's what separates them from everybody else," says Luginbill. "Everybody's heard the 'all-in' slogan when talking about college football programs. But when Alabama uses the phrase 'all-in,' they're not just talking about the football program; they're talking about the university as a whole. Whether you're the track coach or the assistant professor in the sociology wing, everybody there understands that when football drives the bus, everybody wins."
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Coaching: If you're looking for reasons Ohio State earned the No. 2 spot in our rankings, start with Urban Meyer. "This rating is really just Urban-driven," says Haney. "They would probably be a top-10-ish team if Jim Tressel were still there, but Meyer brings so much potential on multiple fronts. Right away he's created the perception that they could be a yearly national title player. He's as close to Saban as any coach in the country."
Current Talent: The Buckeyes were a little lower here than they were in the other categories. "Their talent level is good," says McShay, "but not exceptional." But in addition to Heisman candidate QB Braxton Miller, who has at least one year left in Columbus, young guys like sophomore, defensive lineman Noah Spence and three highly touted true freshmen -- RB Dontre Wilson, WR Jalin Marshall and CB Eli Apple -- have the look of future stars.
Recruiting: Since Meyer was hired in November 2011, the Buckeyes have hauled in the No. 6 and No. 3 recruiting classes in ESPN's rankings. "What's happened is you have a coach with a distinct history of success, and that becomes contagious," Luginbill says. "His recruiting roots in southern parts of the country allow him to supplement his classes with the types of players that aren't always in abundance in the Midwest. At Florida, he could throw a rock out his office window and hit a defensive lineman, but the talent pool isn't quite what it once was in the Midwest. He knows that to win a national title, he's going to need those kinds of players, and that makes his southern connections very important."
Title Path: The Buckeyes find themselves in a great spot in this category -- the Big Ten doesn't provide the grueling conference schedule of the SEC, but it has the program stature needed to earn a title game bid. "Ohio State legitimizes that conference," says McShay. "If they go undefeated, because of Meyer, they can go to the national championship game."
Program Power: Meyer was a perfect fit for Ohio State, but this 8.8 rating demonstrates that the program already had the pieces in place -- history, tradition and money -- to create a perennial title contender prior to his arrival.
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Coaching: LSU is an interesting program to evaluate from a coaching standpoint. The Tigers have won consistently, but Les Miles has taken heat for late-game management issues. Still, LSU ended up earning the third-highest mark in the coaching category in these rankings. "I think they've been really strong with their defensive coaching staff, with coordinator John Chavis, and that's covered up for a few things," Haney says.
Current Talent: Even after having nine players taken in the 2013 NFL draft, the Tigers still have plenty of talent left on their depth chart. "LSU is one of three or four teams that are so head and shoulders ahead of the rest of the country in terms of defensive front-seven play," Luginbill says. "They've been so good there that it's masked some deficiencies on offense." DT Anthony Johnson looks to be the next elite LSU defensive linemen.
Recruiting: This category is where the Tigers really got a boost. "In terms of overall talent, Louisiana is a better recruiting state than Alabama and Ohio," says Luginbill. "And the 2014 class from that state could produce the type of class that only comes along once in every 15 years." Three four-star recruits from Louisiana have already committed to LSU, and several other top in-state prospects are considering the Tigers, including ESPN No. 1 overall prospect RB Leonard Fournette.
Title Path: The Tigers have made the national championship game in two of the past six seasons, but playing in a division with Alabama and a rising Texas A&M program makes for a challenging path to the title game. Example: LSU could play as many as four top-10 teams in 2013.
Program Power: Only Alabama scored higher in this category than LSU (the Tigers tied with Ohio State), and the program has been a model of consistency. "LSU has been the one program able to play, recruit and develop at this high of a level outside of Alabama," Haney says. "Even when they lose a bunch of guys like they did this year, we're still thinking of them as a top-10 team. That just demonstrates where they are as a program."
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Coaching: Florida's rating in this category kept it from jumping ahead of Ohio State and LSU, as Will Muschamp didn't score as high as several of the other coaches in the top 10 of these rankings. "I think there was a jury's-still-out feeling on some of the newer head coaches in these rankings, and the voting on Muschamp reflected that," says Haney. "But that could change with another good year -- and I think it'll come around as Will gets more comfortable there. Coaches I've talked to think they're running that program as something of a 'Bama Light.' They're constructed kind of the same way."
Current Talent: The Gators tied for second in this category with LSU, behind Bama. Guys like Dominique Easley, Ronald Powell and Loucheiz Purifoy are already on NFL radars, and future stars like 2013 recruits RB Kelvin Taylor and CB Vernon Hargreaves III should keep the talent level high in future seasons. But there is improvement to be made. "Muschamp is going to build his team around defense," says Schlabach, "but they're going to have to get better on offense." That'll start this year with QB Jeff Driskel, currently a fringe NFL prospect.
Recruiting: Coming off back-to-back top-five classes, the Gators' best opportunity for continued improvement is on the trail. "They're in the biggest recruiting hotbed in the country," Schlabach says. "Muschamp should be able to cherry-pick any player he wants."
Title Path: Florida's numbers took a hit in this category. Despite playing in the relatively easier East Division, there are enough obstacles every season to interfere with the Gators' championship plans.
Program Power: From the recruiting base to the facilities to the resources (UF ranks in the top five nationally in total revenue), plenty of factors support the Gators' continued rise to the top of college football.
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Coaching: Brady Hoke and his coaching staff earned high marks from this panel in his third year with the program, and there is a general feeling that he has the Wolverines heading in the right direction. "What Hoke is trying to do is bring Michigan back to what his vision of Michigan is, which is adopting a physical mentality in everything they do," Luginbill says. "He essentially had to transform a roster to be 180 degrees different from what it was, and he's made faster strides than what people expected."
Current Talent: The Wolverines ranked lowest in this category out of the top five, but there are several key pieces in place going forward, starting at the QB position. Michigan signed its quarterback of the future, Shane Morris, in the 2013 recruiting class, and its current signal-caller Devin Gardner was recently awarded an extra year of eligibility that could keep him in Ann Arbor through the 2014 season. "I would be very surprised if Devin Gardner isn't one of college football's breakout players this season," says Luginbill. "He could be special." Another name to watch: true freshman running back Derrick Green, who could have an impact right away.
Recruiting: Michigan is gaining significant momentum on the recruiting trail, coming off a No. 6 class ranking in 2013 and currently ranking No. 1 for the Class of 2014.
Title Path: "They're in good shape as far as title path goes," Haney says. "They're well-positioned right now -- in that league, Ohio State is 1 and Michigan is 1A." Outside of the Buckeyes and Wolverines, both in our top five, no Big Ten teams made this list -- a sign of the lack of threats in the rest of the league.
Program Power: The history, tradition and revenue are all there, with more help on the way. "They are in the process of significant facilities upgrades, which they needed," says Luginbill. "That's proven to be fruitful in recruiting." Says Haney: "When I visited Ann Arbor this spring, I was struck by how big they are on the Michigan 'brand.' They can promote themselves academically in a way the other schools this high on the list can't."
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Coaching: "Notre Dame could not have a better fit at head coach than Brian Kelly," says Huard. "He's shown it on the field and off the field. That's the most important factor for them for years to come, because it's a unique situation there, with high standards both academically and athletically."
Current Talent: The Fighting Irish scored lower in this category than the other teams in the top 10, but their talent level appears to be on the rise. "I don't think last year was a one-hit wonder," says McShay. "In voting for these rankings, I ranked Notre Dame as the fifth-most-talented team coming into this season. I'm not saying they'll be in the national title hunt year in and year out, but their talent level will give them a chance to be a perennial top-10 team."
Recruiting: The Irish's recent recruiting momentum (ESPN's No. 4 class in 2013) should continue to improve that talent level. Says Huard: "When you stack up Kelly's recruiting there to some of the other Notre Dame coaches before him, it's no comparison." Luginbill adds: "I really believe that for them to compete at a high level, they're going to need to upgrade in the trenches and go in to the SEC's backyard to do it. That's what they did to land their current crop of defensive linemen -- I don't think people have given them enough credit for that."
Title Path: The Irish play the most unique schedule of any team in these rankings, but earned high scores because they play a challenging-enough schedule to earn a title game bid, and don't have an Alabama- or Florida-like obstacle on the slate each year.
Program Power: With the Irish's run to the BCS title game last season, it appears that their on-field play has begun to match the school's tradition and fan support. "'Relevance' is always the word we use with Notre Dame," says Luginbill. "My response to that has always been that they'll be relevant when the great high school football players around the country think that they are relevant. You create and maintain that relevance by winning."
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Coaching: FSU had the lowest coaching rating of any team in the top 10 of these rankings -- a reflection of the belief that the Seminoles' record hasn't yet matched their talent level. "Since Jimbo Fisher has taken over, they've remained more in the 'potential' category than 'reality,'" Haney says. "When you're expected to compete for titles, beating Northern Illinois in the Orange Bowl isn't good enough. You can't lose to NC State and be considered 'back.' They're at a bit of a crossroads right now, with so many new assistants. This group is going to have a say in whether they alter the perception, or if it'll stay the same."
Current Talent: The Noles are once again loaded this season, and feature several young, promising players, including WR Kelvin Benjamin, DE Mario Edwards and CB Ronald Darby. But the player who has FSU fans the most excited is redshirt freshman Jameis Winston, the former ESPN No. 1 QB recruit who is already earning buzz as this year's Johnny Manziel. "You could tell really quickly that he could be a difference-maker," says Luginbill.
Recruiting: The Seminoles have had five straight top-10 recruiting classes, including the No. 1 class in 2012, and they already have six four-star prospects committed for the 2014 class. "They can go into the homes of any of the nation's top players," says Luginbill. "They are the one team in the Southeast that can go toe to toe with Alabama and Georgia, and maybe Florida as well, at the premier positions that count."
Title Path: The Seminoles appear to be positioned well as an extremely talented team in a winnable league. But that could soon change. "They'll have to watch out for Louisville once they join the ACC," says Haney. "And Clemson is really not that far away. There's a perception among ACC coaches I've talked to that the league is up for grabs, that anyone can win it. In some ways, it's FSU's fault that everyone feels that way, because they haven't dominated the way they were expected to."
Program Power: "From a resources and perception standpoint, they're one of the few programs in the country that can rank up there with the high-profile SEC teams," says Luginbill.
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Coaching: It only took Kevin Sumlin one season at A&M to get the attention of our panelists. "I think Sumlin is one of the premier coaches in the country," says McShay. "He understands the big picture, and his offensive system is right up there with any in college football. He allows guys to do what they do best and doesn't force them to fit what he wants to do schematically. He could do special things there for a long time." Defensive coordinator Mark Snyder earned praise as well.
Current Talent: Don't let all of the excitement around Johnny Football distract from the supporting talent around him. "It's not just Johnny Manziel," says McShay. LT Jake Matthews, WRs Mike Evans and Ricky Seals-Jones, RBs Brandon Williams and Trey Williams and CB Deshazor Everett are all guys to keep an eye on, for this and future seasons. "They need to improve on the defensive side of the ball, but they have a good young nucleus that should continue to get better," McShay says. "And with the way they're recruiting, there are a lot of starters in the next two seasons who will be fighting to keep their jobs -- that's the sign of a great program."
Recruiting: With Manziel likely not staying long in College Station ("I give it about a 99.999 percent chance he leaves for the draft after this season," says McShay), finding a long-term replacement at QB is critical. The Aggies have a good candidate to do just that in recent 2014 commit Kyle Allen. The QB's verbal commitment boosted the Aggies to No. 3 in ESPN's current 2014 class rankings -- a height they hadn't reached prior to Sumlin's arrival and the program's move to the SEC. "Right now they have a little bit of what Oregon has had in recent seasons, which is that 'cool factor,'" says Luginbill. "They're a high-flying circus act on offense, they have a Heisman winner at QB, and they made a splash immediately in the SEC. It's a snowball effect."
Title Path: The only thing our panel didn't like about the No. 8 Aggies' chances to compete for titles in the next three seasons? The fact that the No. 1 and No. 3 teams on this list, Alabama and LSU, are both in their division.
Program Power: With a $450 million stadium renovation on the way, there appears to be plenty of momentum in College Station. "They've always had the fan base and tradition," says McShay. "Football is just so big down there. But now they've got the elite coaching and talent to go along with that passion." Adds Haney: "I think they're just getting started."
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Coaching: Georgia didn't score as high here as some of the other top SEC programs, but our panelists cautioned against being too tough on Mark Richt. "What Richt has done at Georgia is underappreciated," Schlabach says. "He definitely has them back in the upper echelon." Adds Haney: "They've been the model of consistency in that East Division, and that's a tough thing to do."
Current Talent: "They've done a really nice job of sustaining a high level of talent through recruiting and development," Haney says. Case in point: The departures of NFL first-round picks Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree have made way for two very talented sophomores (and former top recruits) Jordan Jenkins and Josh Harvey-Clemons on a reloaded defense. Good young offensive players like RT John Theus and RBs Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall should keep that side of the ball rolling as well.
Recruiting: The Bulldogs have brought in top-10 classes in each of the last three years, and already have two highly touted RB prospects committed for the 2014 class in Sony Michel and Nick Chubb.
Title Path: Even though the Bulldogs have benefited from softer-than-usual SEC schedules the past two seasons, that won't be the case going forward. "The biggest issue for them is that they have to play Florida, South Carolina and Tennessee in the East every year, and then beat LSU, Bama or somebody else really good in the SEC championship game," Schlabach says.
Program Power: "I don't think there's any reason UGA can't be a national title contender every year," Schlabach says. "They're in the right conference, the right recruiting base and have all the resources to get it done." Haney adds: "They've reached the level where if they won the SEC, no one would blink. And they almost did last year."
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Coaching: Only five programs in this ranking earned an 8.0 or better in the coaching category. Stanford, led by head coach David Shaw, is one of them. "Shaw deserves that high of a ranking," McShay says. "He has them playing a smart brand of football, and his players who have gone to the NFL have entered the league ready to play. The only concern for Stanford three, four, five years down the line is whether it can keep him there. It's going to be up to him if he wants to make the leap to the NFL."
Current Talent: "Are they as talented person per person as maybe their record indicates? No, which is why their coaching gets such high marks," Luginbill says. "But they are a blue-collar group that has upgraded its talent, and when supported by quality QB play, they've been good." However, they are lacking in explosive playmakers; we'll see if redshirt freshman Barry J. Sanders can take on that role in coming seasons. "He's extremely gifted," Luginbill says. "In their system, he could flourish."
Recruiting: While not an annual fixture at the top of ESPN's class rankings, the Cardinal have had success on the trail. "What's so impressive about Stanford is that they have cast their net nationally," Luginbill says. "They've deviated from past regimes and aren't relegating themselves to the West Coast. Instead, they are just going out all over and finding the best players. That's paid dividends."
Title Path: "I'm not just saying this because I'm a former Husky," says Huard, "but I think the Pac-12 North is going to be as difficult as any division in college football the next few seasons -- including the SEC East and West. Oregon, Stanford and Oregon State are able to win that league in any year, Washington is on the rise and offensive masterminds Mike Leach and Sonny Dykes are now in the mix."
Program Power: The Cardinal did fine in this category, but they were docked points for resources and fan support that don't measure up compared to the other top teams in this ranking. "Football is not the priority there that it is elsewhere," Huard says. "They aren't one of those blue-blood programs that can rest on their laurels. And for that reason, it makes Stanford's margin for error smaller."
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Coaching: It may surprise some to see Oregon lower on this list than Stanford. But part of that is because of the uncertainty around first-time head coach Mark Helfrich and whether he can sustain the success achieved by Chip Kelly. "Talent wasn't the biggest reason they've been winning the last few years," Schlabach says. "Scheme, pace, style of play and coaching decisions all had a lot to do with their success." Haney adds: "Where would they be on this list with Kelly? Probably top 5. Not a knock on Helfrich, but that's just the uncertainty that comes with having a new head coach."
Current Talent: QB Marcus Mariota and RB/WR De'Anthony Thomas are the headliners heading into 2013, but from CBs Terrence Mitchell and Ifo Ekpre-Olomu to DE Arik Armstead to TE Colt Lyerla, there is talent all over the Ducks' roster. "There was a reason why Kelly was as torn as he was about leaving for the NFL," Huard says. "They've got a great roster and the type of really special quarterback that doesn't come around all that often. That, along with an experienced staff of assistants, is why I think their window of opportunity to win a championship is now."
Recruiting: Oregon has ranked in the top 26 of ESPN's class rankings in each of the past three seasons, but could potentially have to deal with issues stemming from the NCAA's investigation into the program.
Title Path: The Ducks scored higher in this category than the Cardinal did, but Huard's words of caution still apply. "The Pac-12 North is no joke," he says.
Program Power: Our panelists were in agreement: The Ducks' facilities, resources and dedicated fan base all set them up well for future success. And oh yeah, having that guy from Nike helps, too. "I've always said that as long as Oregon has Phil Knight's checkbook, they'll be fine," Schlabach says. The possibility of NCAA sanctions is certainly an issue, but in general, our panel isn't too worried. "No program in the country is better funded or has better facilities than Oregon," McShay says.
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Coaching: This is the category that kept the Longhorns out of the top 10. "This is a big year for Mack Brown," Schlabach says. "Their latest switch in offensive style is another pretty drastic change. If it doesn't work and they struggle again, a lot of people are going to be calling for his job." Haney adds: "There are two reasons why their coaching takes a hit here: For one, they haven't done all that well the past couple of years, and now they're changing things again with a new offensive coordinator. Second, there's the uncertainty with Mack. Will he be there in three years? Probably not. If you were betting on it, you'd set the over/under at 2.5."
Current Talent: In Haney's recent ranking of the most talented teams in college football for the 2013 season, the Longhorns came in at No. 2. QB David Ash, DE Jackson Jeffcoat and CBs Quandre Diggs and Carrington Byndom help lead stacked junior and senior classes, but younger players like RB Johnathan Gray and DT Malcom Brown offer hope for the future as well.
Recruiting: After recording four consecutive top-5 classes, the Horns had a "down" year in 2013, ranking No. 16. But they seem to be back on track for 2014, riding 19 total commitments to the No. 4 class. One thing to watch going forward is how the Horns fare against the Aggies (currently No. 3 for 2014) on the trail. "The recruiting battles in Texas are going to be really interesting," McShay says.
Title Path: For all of Texas' issues the past couple of seasons, its 7.8 score in this category reflects that the conference seems there for the taking -- the Longhorns are the highest-ranked Big 12 team on this list.
Program Power: The Longhorns scored an 8 in this category, and when you consider the factors working in their favor (No. 1 athletic department nationally in revenue), it can be hard to explain their recent dip. "It's mind-boggling that they've struggled so much the last few years," Schlabach says. "Given its location, recruiting base and financial resources, there is no reason why Texas shouldn't always be among the elite teams in the country."
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Coaching: Overall the Tigers fared pretty well in this category, ranking second among ACC teams (behind Virginia Tech). But some turnover on the staff is expected in coming years, starting with their star offensive coordinator. "Will they be able to hold on to Chad Morris?" Haney asks. "Probably not."
Current Talent: With the likes of QB Tajh Boyd, WR Sammy Watkins and OL Brandon Thomas, Clemson is in very good shape on offense for 2013. What about the defense? "A few years back they had a lot more veteran talent, and it was clear last season that it had dried up a bit," McShay says. "But on tape I did see a lot of speed and athleticism in addition to the mistakes and guys out of position. There is more talent on that defense than the stats indicated last year."
Recruiting: The Tigers currently have the No. 10 class for 2014 on the strength of eight four-star commitments, including No. 1-ranked dual-threat QB Deshaun Watson.
Title Path: "Their title path is interesting because they are one of the ACC teams -- along with Florida State -- with enough name recognition to earn a berth in the championship game if they were to go undefeated," said McShay.
Program Power: The Tigers scored well here, although they are lower in revenue than many of the teams in these rankings. There is also the lingering question of whether they'll be able to break through to elite status. "They are right on the verge right now, but I have more questions about their future than I do about a lot of other teams on this list," Haney says. "If Boyd, Watkins and Morris all go, what's the offense look like? I have some questions about their sustainability."
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Coaching: Of the five Big 12 programs that made this list, only Texas had a lower score in this category. "I think Bob Stoops won too big too soon," Schlabach says. "Oklahoma fans expect the Sooners to win Big 12 titles every season, but it's impossible to maintain things at that level." Haney asks: "What would Bob have been rated five years ago? Probably 8.5 or better. Now he and that staff are in the process of reinventing themselves, and it's tough to do that when you've been in one place for so long."
Current Talent: From an experienced offensive line to QB Blake Bell, there is talent to be found on this roster. But there are some reasons for concern. "They're not getting physical players up front on defense like they used to," Haney says. "And their identity on offense has eroded since Kevin Wilson left for Indiana."
Recruiting: After five consecutive top-11 classes, the Sooners ranked 17th in 2013 and are currently ranked 21st for 2014. "The recruiting has dipped some," Schlabach says. "It's a harder job to recruit there than at Texas and Texas A&M."
Title Path: Overlooking Stoops' recent comments playing up the strength of the Big 12 to the SEC, our panelists view OU as having a manageable championship path.
Program Power: History, fan support and revenue are all factors working in OU's favor going forward, but the momentum is heading in the wrong direction. "It's not what it was five, six or seven years ago," Haney says.
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Coaching: "What Steve Spurrier has done at South Carolina is 10 times more impressive than what he did at Florida," Schlabach says. "He's upgraded the talent, coaching and every other facet of that program, and it solidifies him as one of the top 10 coaches of all time. No one is supposed to win that big there." But will he still be there in three years? "I don't think he'll quit until they've won an SEC championship," Schlabach says. Haney adds: "Three to five years is probably about right for him. But the uncertainty costs them a few points here." Still, the growth under Spurrier has made the job more attractive to the next coach the school must hire.
Current Talent: Jadeveon Clowney is the favorite to be the No. 1 pick in next year's draft, but there are questions about the Gamecocks' talent in future seasons. "Their talent level might have peaked," Haney says. "Even on defense this year, what do they have beyond Clowney? They lost a lot of valuable guys off last year's team."
Recruiting: The Gamecocks have finished 23rd or better in ESPN's class rankings each of the past five seasons, but don't currently rank in the top 30 for 2014. "Their recruiting depends on how strong the state of South Carolina is in a given year," Haney says. "If they don't continue to find those four- or five-star guys [in-state], it could be difficult to sustain what they've done."
Title Path: South Carolina got an easier draw in its conference schedule for 2013 than it has in the past two years, but winning the SEC East -- and the entire SEC -- won't be easy at any point in the next three years.
Program Power: The Gamecocks' score of 7 in this category is solid, but it pales in comparison to the five SEC programs ranked ahead of them, all of which scored 8 or higher. "I think they're in the middle of a heyday right now," Haney says. "But if they don't cash in soon, they're going to have trouble keeping up with Florida and Georgia in that division."
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Coaching: Only eight schools on this list scored better in the coaching category than the Cardinals (they tied with South Carolina) -- a testament to the growth Louisville has made since Charlie Strong took over. "They and Texas A&M are the two teams right now where you can really feel the momentum building," McShay says. "Louisville has the right people in place at the leadership positions and the right recruiters."
Current Talent: The Cards scored lower in this category than the rest, but things are certainly trending in the right direction. "Watching tape ahead of their bowl game with Florida last year, I thought they were going to get blown out. They had some young players who were just kind of getting their feet wet," McShay says. "But after that win, they've got some street cred." They also have Teddy Bridgewater, the front-runner to be the first QB taken in the 2014 draft.
Recruiting: Louisville currently has the 20th-ranked class for 2014, and its upcoming move to the ACC should provide a boost. "Getting into the ACC gets them more visibility and exposure in the southeastern states, which gives them a chance to upgrade their recruiting efforts," Luginbill says. "And they're already pretty well entrenched in Georgia and Florida."
Title Path: Louisville has a very soft schedule for 2013, and its biggest issue could be earning enough respect in the computers and polls to get a BCS title shot if it goes undefeated. Following the ACC move, the Cardinals will still have a more manageable title game route than a lot of the teams ranked ahead of them.
Program Power: "You hear a lot about 'commitment to football' at the elite level," Haney says, "and it speaks to Louisville's commitment level that it would spend so much to retain Strong this offseason. That's a hot athletic department right now, and not just in football. I think No. 16 might be a little low on this list for them going forward, which is saying a lot."
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Coaching: "In my opinion, Mike Gundy is one of the top 15 coaches in the country," McShay says. The bigger question our panel had was whether Gundy, whose name came up in connection with other jobs this offseason, will still be coaching the Cowboys in three seasons.
Current Talent: McShay ranked the Cowboys 21st in the country in terms of overall talent, and with Tracy Moore, Josh Stewart and incoming freshman Ra'Shaad Samples, the receiver position figures to be a strength going forward. "They're always going to be near the top of the country in terms of offensive stats, but they've got to find a way to bridge that gap and play better defense," McShay says.
Recruiting: The Cowboys don't pull in top-10 recruiting classes the way many of the teams on this list do, but they've been effective at finding good players for their system, particularly at the offensive skill positions. "They play an exciting brand of football, and it seems like every year you have good athletes looking at them and deciding that they can go there, put up huge numbers, and make it to the NFL," McShay says.
Title Path: As is the case for the other Big 12 teams on this list, the lack of a current powerhouse program gives the Cowboys a shot.
Program Power: "When you walk around their facilities, you can understand why they've been able to make the jump that they have," Haney says. "But this isn't Phil Knight money we're talking about here, and Stillwater is just not that big of a place." In other words, T. Boone Pickens alone isn't enough to earn an elite rating in this category. "Oil money is prevalent at a lot of schools," Haney adds. "It's just that at Oklahoma State, there's a face for it."
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Coaching: "Al Golden is one of the best young coaches in the country," Schlabach says. "I think he's there for the long haul. If they can get over the sanctions, there aren't many jobs in the country better than Miami." Haney adds: "Coaches I've talked to in that league think Golden is a guy who will win a bunch of games there."
Current Talent: There are several young players already in the program who should give Miami fans optimism. RB Duke Johnson, WR/TE Derrick Griffin, CB Tracy Howard and S Deon Bush are all underclassmen who have the potential to be impact players for the Canes. A veteran-laden O-line should be a strength in 2013, but the defense has some issues to overcome.
Recruiting: The Hurricanes signed the eighth-ranked class in 2012, 15th in 2013 and currently have the 12th for 2014. "They continue to sell the whole mindset and aura of 'the U,'" Luginbill says. "For whatever reason, it still resonates."
Title Path: The potential for an NCAA-imposed postseason ban remains a possibility, but if you take that out of the equation, Miami's championship path appears fairly straightforward. "In that league, the door is open," Haney says.
Program Power: Miami took a hit in this category, in part because of the U's poor facilities and in part because of the remaining potential for NCAA sanctions. But with the facilities in the process of being upgraded, and the appearance of stability in the program, the Canes should be OK. "I think as long as Miami can keep Al Golden, they'll have a chance to recover from any sanctions they face," Schlabach says.
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Coaching: Only five programs in our top 25 earned higher marks in coaching than TCU (it tied with Michigan and Texas A&M). "Of all the coaches I've visited, [Gary] Patterson was probably the most organized," Haney says. "When I was there in April last year, he was showing me a practice schedule for August and September."
Current Talent: The Horned Frogs recorded only a 5.2 in this category, but there are several young players who could play key roles in the coming seasons, including RB Aaron Green, WR LaDarius Brown, LT Aviante Collins and DE Devonte Fields.
Recruiting: TCU could rise up this category in future years. "With the move to the Big 12 Patterson can compete with anyone now in recruiting," Schlabach says. "I don't think there's any question that they've had talented players, but they were beating teams with better talent. I think we'll see that talent gap close in a couple of years."
Title Path: TCU struggled to earn the respect of pollsters during its Mountain West years, but that should change with the move to the Big 12.
Program Power: The $164 million renovation of Amon G. Carter Stadium was completed just last year, and that isn't the only sign that this program is trending in the right direction. "I think TCU is just going to continue to grow," Haney says. "They've got the perfect location for recruiting purposes, and with Patterson as head coach, they're set."
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Coaching: "If you can bet on one thing in college football, it's Virginia Tech showing up and winning 10 games a season," Schlabach says. "Frank Beamer has won more consistently than any coach in the country." However, how much longer Beamer will be there remains to be seen. "I rated them a little lower, because I think Beamer's future there is probably somewhere in the three-to-five-year range," Haney says. "And I don't know what happens to that program after he leaves."
Current Talent: The Hokies ranked the lowest in this category among the teams that made our top 25. "Their talent level has slipped in recent years," Haney says. QB Logan Thomas could help alter that perception with a big senior season, but in general, Virginia Tech isn't going to overwhelm opponents with raw talent.
Recruiting: The Hokies currently have the 23rd-ranked class for 2014, behind the strength of four four-star commits. But even during their most successful seasons, this is a team built more on development than elite-level recruiting. "You can't recruit all that easily in Blacksburg," Schlabach says.
Title Path: The schedule opens with Alabama this year, but in most seasons, the Hokies are favored in the vast majority of their games. However, with four other ACC teams making our top 25, the path to a league championship looks like it's getting more difficult.
Program Power: No one aspect jumps out at you in this category, but Tech's consistency level has been impressive. "They've been solid for a really long time," Haney says.
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Coaching: Larry Fedora earned UNC good marks for a coach still early in his tenure with the team. "The jury's still out on Fedora," Haney says, "but there's potential there." McShay adds: "I would put him in that third tier of coaches right now, but I do think he can be successful."
Current Talent: "They have pretty good talent, but I think they're coming back to the pack," McShay says. "It's not like it was a few years ago when Butch Davis was there." QB Bryn Renner, TE Eric Ebron, LT James Hurst, DE Kareem Martin and S Tre Boston are all potential NFL prospects.
Recruiting: The Tar Heels are coming off a top-25 class in 2013, a group that featured 11 four-star prospects, six of which came from the state of North Carolina. "They're in a decent recruiting area," Haney says. "If they're going to be successful, they're going to have to keep things going in recruiting."
Title Path: UNC has a stiff road to a title game. Not only does it have to beat more talented programs in order to win its league, but earning a national title game opportunity isn't a sure thing coming from the ACC.
Program Power: "Looking at the big picture, this has always been a basketball school," McShay says. "They've got the facilities, they have good talent, and it's a great school, but is football ever going to truly compete with basketball in Chapel Hill? I don't think in the future we'll be talking about UNC as a perennial top-10 team, but if Fedora can turn things around and do it the right way, he gives them a chance at being a perennial top-20 team."
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Coaching: Jim Mora Jr. got off to a fast start in leading his Bruins to the Pac-12 title game last year. "When he was hired, people in the sport weren't really sure how he would do," Haney says. "But you really have to commend him for the job he's done. He's assembled a very smart staff, and things have come together in a hurry."
Current Talent: This is a roster trending in the right direction, starting at QB. "Braxton Miller, Teddy Bridgewater and Johnny Manziel are getting the attention this offseason," Huard says. "But Brett Hundley is right there creeping into that class. He just needs his level of consistency to start matching his considerable gifts." Backing up Hundley this year will likely be incoming freshman Asiantii Woulard, who won the Elite 11 competition last season and was ESPN's top-ranked dual-threat quarterback.
Recruiting: The Bruins have established some momentum on the recruiting trail, coming off the No. 12-ranked class in 2013. "The fact that they're starting to win battles in L.A. both on and off the field is big for them," Haney says. "They're becoming the program of record in Los Angeles. It's impressive that Mora has done that in such a short time."
Title Path: USC, Oregon and Stanford are just a few of the obstacles standing in the way of a UCLA title run.
Program Power: "To me, this comes down to the athletic department's commitment," Huard says. "Are they willing to pay to keep their coaching staff and provide improved facilities the way USC, Oregon and Washington have done, instead of just resting on the L.A. media market and recruiting area? That's the multimillion dollar question." But there's no doubting the Bruins' momentum. McShay says: "They just have the feel of a program rising."
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Coaching: The biggest question surrounding Auburn football is whether former offensive coordinator turned new head coach Gus Malzahn can turn the program around. "Can they get back to seven to nine wins pretty quickly? I think so," Haney says. "Malzahn and [new defensive coordinator] Ellis Johnson are as good at coaching their sides of the ball as you'll find in the country."
Current Talent: "I think the talent level dropped off dramatically after the national championship season," Schlabach says. "Malzahn was the right hire, and with his offense they'll improve quickly. But it'll take a couple of years to get the talent level back up. It's just so competitive in the SEC West that you can't have one bad recruiting year. And they had a couple."
Recruiting: The Tigers currently rank 14th in ESPN's 2014 class rankings and have already received commitments from five in-state four-star prospects.
Title Path: "I think the biggest factor working against Auburn is that Alabama is right down the road in the same division," Schlabach says. Having to face LSU and Texas A&M, our No. 3- and No. 8-ranked teams, doesn't help things either.
Program Power: Unlike some of the other programs near the bottom of this list, Auburn has some institutional factors working in its favor to get things turned around. "There's a sense of history there, and the national title from two years ago gives you something to build on," Haney says. The Tigers also rank in the top 10 of total revenue.
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Coaching: The Bears were able to sneak into the top 25 largely based on the strength of their coaching. "It was pretty incredible what they were able to do last season after Robert Griffin III left, and I think that demonstrated just how good a coach Art Briles is," Haney says. "He can take the talent he has and build his system around it."
Current Talent: RB Lache Seastrunk has the look of Baylor's next offensive star, but the real key to the Bears' season figures to be their D. "They've got to start playing better defense," Schlabach says. Haney adds: "If they can build depth and talent on that side of the ball, they're a program to watch in that league."
Recruiting: Baylor already has 19 commitments for the 2014 class -- all of whom are in-state prospects -- and currently ranks 16th in ESPN's class rankings.
Title Path: There's an opening at the top of the Big 12, but there's enough depth that the Bears could have a tough time breaking through. "There's only so much room in that league for contenders," Haney says.
Program Power: Baylor doesn't have the history, fan base or resources of most of the teams on this list, which will make it tough to rise in these rankings going forward. "Nothing against Briles, but we might be looking at their ceiling," Haney says. "It's hard to be a perennial Big 12 title contender when you're located in Waco."
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Coaching: The Trojans had the worst score in the coaching category of any team in the top 25, which was partly a reflection of USC's recent performance and partly a reflection of the questions surrounding Lane Kiffin's job security. "That whole program is in a 'prove-it' state for AD Pat Haden," Huard says. "And Lane is right there in the crosshairs. Haden didn't hire Kiffin, and Kiffin knows it."
Current Talent: Surprised to see the Trojans so low on this list, with ratings of only 6.2 and 6.4 in the talent and recruiting categories? "Doesn't surprise me," Luginbill says. "What a lot of people don't understand is that while they were appealing those sanctions, none of those scholarship reductions came into play. We hadn't seen the effects of what their minimized roster is going to do to them. I think the long-term effects have yet to truly manifest themselves." One silver lining for USC fans: "If they can stay healthy, they have the top-end talent to make some noise this year," Huard says.
Recruiting: The scholarship reductions will continue to have an impact on the trail as well. "The issue in recruiting is that they can't afford to miss," Luginbill says. "In any given year, if you hit on 65 percent of your recruits, that's a successful class. That's a bigger issue when you're only signing 15 prospects per class -- you have to make correct assessments on guys to make sure they pan out."
Title Path: USC has three Pac-12 programs ranked ahead of it in Stanford, Oregon and UCLA. The Trojans have some work to do if they want to re-establish themselves as the league's top team.
Program Power: While the sanctions and coaching uncertainty are obstacles in the near future, the program's resources create the potential for a quick turnaround. "Over the long haul, if it doesn't work out for Kiffin, the USC job will be a very desirable job," Huard says. "And their facilities, recruiting turf and tradition will allow them to be right back in the mix."