Haney: CFB Future Power Rankings

Travis HaneyJul 7, 2014, 03:16 PM ET
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CFB Future Power Ranks | 10 future stars | Chat wrap | 2013 FPR

It's Insider's second go-round projecting college football's next three years in our Future Power Rankings.

CATEGORIES (weighting)

What did we learn from our first edition? For one, teams can make a substantive move in just a year's time. Just look at Auburn, which jumped from 23rd to fifth after a run to the championship game. USC, now with coaching stability, made the biggest leap (25th to sixth). Oklahoma, UCLA, FSU and Baylor were among other risers, and you'll soon read why.

On the other side, we were high a year ago on Florida and Michigan. Oops. The Gators' injury-plagued 4-8 season dropped them from No. 4 to No. 14, while the Wolverines, who lost five of their last six games, fell from fifth to 20th. We know Will Muschamp's job is in danger, but is that an omen for Brady Hoke's future in Ann Arbor?

Alabama is again our No. 1 team, but with two losses to end the season, its lead shrank. Is that a subtle signal that the Tide might have peaked under Nick Saban?

We'll examine those topics and more in the Future Power Rankings.

Here's how we compiled it: Our panel -- myself, Brad Edwards, Brock Huard, Tom Luginbill and Mark Schlabach -- provided 1-10 ratings in five different categories that we found to be comprehensive in determining current positioning, as well as a projection for the 2015 and 2016 seasons.

Here are the top 25 college football teams over the next three years:

Alabama Crimson Tide
SEC FPR RANK: 1

The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category. Category averages are weighted by importance to generate overall score.

Coaching: Saban did not receive a perfect 10, as he did a year ago. Maybe the one panelist who gave him a nine dinged him for how he managed the final second of the Iron Bowl.

But seriously, Saban is still well ahead of No. 2 Urban Meyer (9.2) and No. 3 Bill Snyder (9.0). (Have to appreciate that Snyder gets that kind of love, even if K-State didn't break the Top 25.)

Edwards thinks 2014 is a big year for Saban because it will show whether he can adapt his defense to better handle tempo offenses. Look at how Saban's defenses mightily struggled last year against not only Texas A&M, but also Auburn and Oklahoma.

"You put them all together and you realize, 'You know what, Alabama might have an issue with this,'" Edwards said. "I happen to believe Saban and [defensive coordinator] Kirby Smart have done enough to deserve the benefit of the doubt. Let's see what they can come up with this year before I decide the dynasty is over. Saban is now recruiting to find those types of players [to defend tempo offenses]."

As for the best coach in the state?

"I want to see Gus Malzahn beat Nick Saban one more time before I say he's a better coach," Edwards said, "which is a conclusion a lot of people are already making."

Current talent: There are more positional questions than in the past few years, especially the offensive line and cornerback spots. Rival coaches are even rumbling about it. "I don't know about them," one SEC coordinator said. But do not be fooled for an instant into thinking the Tide have suddenly become as barren as a bachelor's refrigerator in terms of talent.

Bama still has the top running back group in the country with T.J. Yeldon, Kenyan Drake and Derrick Henry, who was a bright spot in the otherwise drab Sugar Bowl performance. The time could be now for LB Reuben Foster and FS Landon Collins to shine on defense. MLB Trey DePriest will be the defense's rock.

And what about QB Jake Coker? His old coach at FSU, Jimbo Fisher, believes Coker is capable, which is why Coker nearly beat out last year's Heisman Trophy winner to start at FSU.

Recruiting: This is why Alabama earned association with the word "dynasty" -- it started winning almost every major recruiting battle, and the program became the closest thing there is on the planet to the NFL's minor league system. It has not dipped, and there's no reason to believe it will as long as Saban is around; he will not let it slide.

Title path: It's going to happen, and it could happen this year: The SEC is going to knock itself out of the playoff. The strength of the top half of the league could turn out to be a bad thing in some seasons.

The Tide are regularly part of a kickoff game of some kind, playing the likes of Clemson, Virginia Tech or West Virginia, but the nonconference slate is typically manageable. The conference schedule always works for and against the SEC. For the Tide, Auburn is the new-slash-old menace.

The rating suggests that it isn't the ideal road to the playoff, but it should not be preventive for a power program such as Alabama.

Program power: Like the coaching category, Bama still received four 10s and a nine. The takeaway: It's hard to remain perfect.

"We all know that every dynasty comes to an end, but when you look back on every dynasty, you know where the turning point was," Edwards said. Will we say it was the Iron Bowl and Sugar Bowl, perhaps? "I think what you have is a lot of people trying to be the first one to predict the end of the dynasty," Edwards said. "They want to be the ones to say they didn't miss it. I think they're jumping the gun a little bit."

Which is why Alabama is still No. 1. But one program is making up ground in a hurry ...

Florida State Seminoles
ACC FPR RANK: 1

The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category. Category averages are weighted by importance to generate overall score.

Coaching: Fisher (and his staff) improved by nearly a point and a half from last year. Fisher was always respected by fellow coaches, but last season did wonders for his rep nationally.

"The question was whether he was more of a recruiter," Schlabach said. "In three years, he had upgraded FSU's talent level tremendously, but we hadn't seen the on-field results."

Fisher's peers always told me how uptight he coached, with that tone trickling down to his players. QB EJ Manuel, I had heard, was typically paralyzed by the fear of incensing his coach. Jameis Winston and a core of veterans got Fisher to chill; it resulted in a long-awaited championship.

What might be construed as a bit surprising is that the rating didn't take a hit with Jeremy Pruitt heading to Georgia, meaning FSU will be on its third defensive coordinator in three seasons. I heard Pruitt's replacement, Charles Kelly, speak last month at a coaching clinic and I thought he was outstanding. He's dynamic, personable and knows the game inside and out.

Current talent: FSU being "back" is a long-obsessed-about national narrative. Well, here's how back FSU is: A coach in the Big Ten told me not long ago that the Seminoles are still as loaded as any team in the country. Everyone is taking notice.

"They've got first-rounders at every position," he said. "It's where it was when [Bobby] Bowden was there." As far as our panel, FSU is the only team rated higher than Alabama in terms of talent. And that's after the Seminoles had 18 picks selected in the past two NFL drafts. Beyond Winston, who looks like a top-10 lock, the Noles return four of five offensive linemen, including Cam Erving. On defense, top NFL prospects dot both the line and the secondary.

Recruiting: If Fisher built FSU on the Bama model, which Fisher learned when he was on Saban's offensive staff at LSU, the Seminoles are doing a great job of matching the Tide on the recruiting trail. Even in retooling the majority of the staff a year ago, Fisher found some real recruiting all-stars -- and good position coaches, such as running backs coach Jay Graham and Pruitt/Kelly.

Title path: The Seminoles' road in 2014 is more challenging than last year, beginning with the Cowboys Classic against Oklahoma State, plus the ACC additions of Louisville and Notre Dame. The Noles haven't added any 2015 or 2016 opponents of note, but they actually haven't shied away from having a decent home-and-home series in recent years. The reason the 2012 and 2013 schedules got watered down is because West Virginia swapped leagues and had to drop a series.

Florida remaining mediocre would help greatly, because it's still a "name" opponent, but I would not count on that. As of now, the schedule, while no joke, is not stopping FSU from doing what it wants to do as a program.

Program power: Bowden obviously made FSU a brand, but Fisher has done something quite incredible by righting things so quickly. Step back and think about it: He was on staff during an incredibly awkward ouster of a legend, yet he took over, figured out how to be a head coach and rapidly turned the Seminoles into what we were used to in the 1990s. It's no wonder FSU is up to No. 2.

"He's as much like Saban as any of his former assistants," Schlabach said of Fisher. "I think he's re-established FSU as one of the country's premier programs."

Ohio State Buckeyes
BIG TEN FPR RANK: 1

The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category. Category averages are weighted by importance to generate overall score.

Coaching: Meyer once again rates just behind Saban, per our panel. That makes sense, even with last year's season-ending thud that kept the Buckeyes from playing FSU in the BCS National Championship.

Edwards sees it as a chess-and-checkers thing when it comes to Meyer and the Big Ten. "I think the entire Big Ten is in danger of getting left behind by Ohio State," said Edwards. "For the majority of the Big Ten schools, the most important thing has been winning a Big Ten title and winning the Rose Bowl. That still means more to them than any other conference.

"Urban came in, and he wasn't coming in with the Big Ten mentality. He was coming in with the Florida-SEC mentality. He wanted to compete for national titles. That's the attitude he's taking."

Current talent: Braxton Miller is my pick to win the Heisman, but he was a Jim Tressel recruit and is entering his final year. Still, Miller is just one example of OSU's high-end talent. Defensive end Joey Bosa was an immediate-impact prodigy last season and the D-line is now loaded with high-end NFL prospects. LB Raekwon McMillan could be another one this year. On offense, Dontre Wilson and Jalin Marshall could easily break out as skill players in 2014.

Meyer expressed disappointment that the Buckeyes had to redshirt a half-dozen defensive freshmen last year (they aren't always as ready as Bosa was). That disappointment will likely morph into excitement this fall, when young players like CBs Eli Apple and Gareon Conley crack the rotation. The depth chart was strong when Meyer arrived, and has only strengthened since.

Recruiting: Meyer and his assistants were highly rated in this area a year ago, and they remain so in 2014.

Ohio State's success in recruiting has a lot to do with Meyer's SEC mentality, which we discussed above. Incoming freshmen are also obviously attracted by the talent OSU already has on board. But on top of all that, Meyer's decision to hire former Penn State ace recruiter Larry Johnson Sr. to coach the defensive line has given this staff an extra weapon on the recruiting trail.

Johnson's fingerprints were all over the recent commitments of two RecruitingNation five-stars, LB Justin Hilliard and DE Jashon Cornell. Recruiting is in great shape overall. Particularly next to Big Ten peers.

Title path: FSU was the only other team rated higher, but perhaps Ohio State should have been No. 1. As Edwards said: "They have one game, against the Michigan State Spartans."

Buckeyes fans would argue that the difficulty of the nonconference schedule was amplified with the addition of the Virginia Tech Hokies, but a matchup with the Hokies doesn't have the same sizzle it had three or four years ago. A schedule including Virginia Tech likely will not be perceived much differently by the selection committee than one with Alabama opening against West Virginia. The Buckeyes do make the trip to Virginia Tech in 2015.

They begin a home-and-home with Oklahoma in 2016, and add a trip to North Carolina in 2017. They also didn't know the California Golden Bears were going to stink when they scheduled that series. So it's not as if OSU has been cowardly in its scheduling.

Program power: A playoff run, let alone a national title, could put Ohio State in the same class as Alabama and FSU. As is, the programs aren't far apart from each other. "I don't think they look at themselves as competing with the rest of the Big Ten," Edwards told me. "I think they're competing with Alabama, Florida State, Oklahoma, USC and teams like that."

That's not good news for the Big Ten.

"I think Ohio State is going to keep getting better," Edwards said. "I think [the Buckeyes are] going to run away from that conference."

LSU Tigers
SEC FPR RANK: 2

The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category. Category averages are weighted by importance to generate overall score.

Coaching: We know Les Miles is a bit kooky. We also know he wins a bunch of games -- an average of 10.6 in nine seasons -- and that some LSU fans still want to run him off. (Saban is difficult enough to follow, let alone coach against.)

I was the only panelist to give Miles a 9. "He's the dumbest smart guy I know," one coach told me last summer." Smart coaches I talk to are onto his hustle; they tell me Miles wants you to think he's a dope. Then, at the end of the night, you look up and he's beaten you once again.

Miles has done a great job hiring top-shelf recruiting-and-development assistants -- and then replacing them once those guys move on. Second-year OC Cam Cameron might be one of the best under-the-radar hires in the past 5-10 years. And DC John Chavis, picked from the carnage of Phillip Fulmer's tenure at Tennessee, was a genius hire.

Miles knows what he's doing. You don't luck your way into a 123-45 record against good competition as a head coach.

Current talent: With a mix of youth and (relative) age, these Tigers are typically excellent. A ton of young talent -- including promising freshman QB Brandon Harris, RB Leonard Fournette and WR Malachi Dupre -- could mean the Tigers jump higher than fourth in our 2015 edition. They needed offensive firepower for the future, and they secured it. Thanks to a slew of early departures, several inexperienced players were forced into action last fall on defense (FSU went through a similar transition a few years ago). The early development paid off, though. In Tre'Davious White and Rashard Robinson, the Tigers have one of the better young corner tandems in the country.

FSU and LSU have lost more NFL talent the past two years than most programs do in several years' time. Yet both still have incredibly talented rosters. I think LSU will win another title in the next two or three years.

Recruiting: Discussing how hard it is to find big defensive linemen, a Big 12 DC once told me that "there are only so many places where those guys are walking the earth." Louisiana is one of those spots, which is why the Tigers are so consistently exceptional in the trenches.

With the above in mind, this feels funny to say, but when it comes to LSU recruiting, keep an eye on Texas A&M. Since Kevin Sumlin took over, the Aggies have gone to battle several times with LSU on the recruiting trail and have won several times. Though the trio I mentioned earlier is from Louisiana, A&M pulled WR Speedy Noil from New Orleans.

Houston is another battleground for the two schools. It's going to be a fun fight to watch.

Title path: LSU knows how difficult the SEC West is. The Tigers won the country's most difficult division in 2011 and lost to a team from that very same division in the national title game. In 2007, the Tigers won the national championship, improbably, with two losses.

Every team from the SEC West or Pac-12 North got low marks from the panel in this category. Though a team from one of those two divisions will likely be a regular part of the playoff, it seems unlikely the same team will survive until the postseason each year. Simply by playing in the SEC West, the Tigers have as rough a road to a title as anybody. Plus, in a move that neither school likes, Florida and LSU will continue to play each year, making each team's title path that much more difficult.

Program power: Given that LSU has ranked at Nos. 3 and 4 in our two versions of the FPR -- even without winning a title -- it's clear the Tigers' brand is strong. Still, to me, there's a danger of getting lost in the SEC West. I'd argue that, as of this moment, A&M has more brand power than LSU. It's as if the idea of the Tigers has somehow become stale, even as the team wins 10-plus games per season. That could be rectified with an SEC title.

Auburn Tigers
SEC FPR RANK: 3

The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category. Category averages are weighted by importance to generate overall score.

Coaching: I'll speak for the group when I say the 5.6 rating for Malzahn last season might as well have been an "N/A."

We needed a year to establish our feelings about Malzahn as a head guy at a major program. But there is no way that we anticipated a national runner-up finish. We wound up boosting Malzahn and his staff by 3.2 points, and rating them higher than established winners like Miles, Bob Stoops and Steve Spurrier.

"Malzahn is in anyone's top-five list for coaching," Huard said. "His résumé, as short as it is, is packed with success."

With this category included, Auburn hopped aboard a rocket ship from 23rd to fifth in the Power Rankings. "I did [Gene] Chizik's second-to-last game against Georgia," Huard said, referring to 2012. "To see in one year what the right coaching with the right personnel could do ... it was incredible."

Current talent: The problem wasn't Chizik's ability to recruit, so this should not have been nearly as low as it was a year ago. There was talent present, and that became obvious once Malzahn returned, coaching many of the players he had recruited and signed as an offensive coordinator.

It's this staff's second (and last) year with QB Nick Marshall. The Tigers have an underrated WR duo in Sammie Coates and juco transfer D'haquille Williams, and they should help Marshall make a mark in his last go-round. The Tigers are also deep again at RB, led by another juco, Cameron Artis-Payne.

DC Ellis Johnson told me S Josh Holsey was the linchpin for this defense. He's back after injuring his knee midway through last season. Keep an eye on DE Carl Lawson, who tries to fill the void left by Dee Ford.

Recruiting: The staff Malzahn assembled was really impressive, perfectly suited for recruiting in the state and the Southeast. Johnson was key in sparking South Carolina's current recruiting efforts. Dameyune Craig, who played QB at Auburn, returned after a stint at FSU.

The best teams in our rankings, if you notice, have solid recruiting staffs. Making those key hires has become an increasingly important part of a head coach's gig. That's good news for Auburn, which received four 9s in the category.

Title path: We keep telling you how difficult the SEC West is. The best evidence is that Auburn is now the third team from the division in the FPR top five. And the annual Georgia rivalry game adds an additional hurdle. If the Tigers win the state championship, they'll have a good shot at bigger prizes.

Program power: Auburn has terrific tradition and branding. I was recently asked to vote on the top 10 stadiums in the country, and I put Jordan-Hare No. 1. When the Tigers are good -- 2010- and 2013-level good -- it's as loud as any place in the country.

"In one of our production meetings, Gus [Malzahn] was point-blank in telling us that Auburn is one of 12 jobs in America that you can compete for a national title every year," Huard said. "They shouldn't have been between 20 and 25, where we had them ranked [last year]. There's too much history and commitment."

USC Trojans
PAC-12 FPR RANK: 1

The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category. Category averages are weighted by importance to generate overall score.

Coaching: This category obviously spiked in the wake of Lane Kiffin's firing and Steve Sarkisian's hiring, increasing by 3 points.

There is optimism with Sark, because he knows the territory. But then there are those who say he was a .500-ish coach at Washington, and wonder whether USC is too big for him. Pat Haden just replaced one Pete Carroll-era offensive coordinator with another. Will that work?

"I'm not sure on them," Schlabach said. "I need to see more."

Me? I love Sark's enthusiasm. He is diligent in his efforts to make practice fun for his players. That might sound cheesy, but it's an important trait when you start thinking about how difficult it is to balance getting young adults to both respect and like you.

And a rarity: Sarkisian held onto offensive coordinator Clay Helton and receivers coach Tee Martin. Usually head coaches, especially if it's the side of the ball they know well, bring in their own guys. Helton and Martin are highly respected and they have great recruiting relationships in the area and even into SEC country; keeping them was a really wise move.

Current talent: Where the Trojans are good, they are really good. DT Leonard Williams is a projected top-five pick in 2015 and WRs Nelson Agholor and Darreus Rogers will play on Sundays.

But then there are the continuing depth issues related to the NCAA-enforced scholarship reductions. The WR position drops off significantly from the two players I just mentioned and the TE spot has really gotten thin. So has the secondary.

By 2016, most of the numbers issues will have been absorbed. Until then, it's a real handicap. It would be surprising if USC could be anything other than be a not-quite-there team for the next season or two.

Recruiting: As one coach once put it, "Who else gets to recruit to that city, with that scene and those girls?" I guess UCLA is the answer, but you get the point. USC is the one with tradition and resources (though Jim Mora, due up later in this post, is doing well with what he's been given).

"[AD] Pat Haden is a pretty smart guy, a Rhodes Scholar," Huard said. "Arguably the greatest attribute that Steve was going to bring was familiarity with Southern California and the [high school] staffs in that area. I don't think there was a higher attribute on Haden's radar than infusing talent, and I think they're going to do that with the high school and junior college familiarity. You weren't going to find anybody better than Steve for that."

Title path: Sarkisian is not returning to the same situation as when he was last at USC. The Pac-12 has a growing case as the best conference in the country.

"The difference [between] the Pac-12 and the SEC is the slimmest it's ever been," Huard said. "This isn't the Pac-10 anymore. This isn't the same as when Pete [Carroll] was dominating. The coaching is so much better. It's going to be a brutal conference to try and run and do what they did before."

Program power: The noise has dipped in the Coliseum, but it would not take much to get it back. As evidenced by the Trojans' jump to the FPR top 10, there is momentum. They have to make strides in the next couple of seasons -- and then make a leap once the scholarship numbers level.

Oklahoma Sooners
BIG 12 FPR RANK: 1

The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category. Category averages are weighted by importance to generate overall score.

Coaching: Looking back, it is surprising that Stoops and his staff had a 6.6 rating a year ago. Surely he had earned more than that, right? But that's how much the national perception of OU had slipped. A 2013 Bedlam upset on the road followed by a thorough, important Sugar Bowl victory against Alabama, and Stoops is back among the coaching elite based on this poll.

How did it happen? Stoops' decision in 2012 to bring back his brother to run the defense is turning out well. And then last year he had to fire veteran assistants -- some of them close friends -- to try to shake things up.

Again, it worked. I have been told by those close to the program that the infusion of new assistants has made an enormous difference both in terms of recruiting and coaching the on-field product. The Sugar Bowl was the climax of that effort.

Current talent: What the Sooners seem to have is a better team, even if that means a less talented one than the underachieving 2011 group that I covered as a local beat writer. They have a cohesive unit with three- and four-stars playing roles, rather than entitled blue-chippers who presume that they can sleepwalk to a title game and a first-round grade.

Schlabach was raving to me about QB Trevor Knight, who had an eye-opening performance against Bama. "He's the most impressive kid I've talked to all year," he said. "He reminds me of Tim Tebow. He has the same confidence, same personality. I think he has the same leadership skills."

Recruiting: Wait a sec. Oklahoma is changing its uniforms? That's a fashion moment of significance. While the stodgy, old-guard fans will cringe, the move is meant for recruits, who excitedly tweeted all sorts of emojis upon learning of the news. Mission accomplished.

Again, give Stoops credit. He's adapting. His record of sustainability during the 2000s was incredible and underappreciated. When that started to subside, he sought out -- and is still seeking, evidently -- ways to still appeal to kids. That deserves a nod. Going to the Bay Area and snagging RB Joe Mixon, a freshman who could play a big role this season, is evidence that OU still has it. The Sooners have been better in Texas than they were a year or two ago, too.

Title path: No team of note has it easier. No one.

Still-down Tennessee (2014, '15) is a breather from the daunting home-and-homes AD Joe Castiglione loves to schedule. The Sooners pick up Ohio State in 2016. That will be appointment watching.

The schedule is the biggest component of OU's playoff candidacy in 2014, for what that's worth. The Sooners are good, but if they played in the SEC West, where would they be projected to finish? Third? Fourth? (Yes, I realize I'm saying that just after they beat Alabama.)

Program power: Luginbill made a good point when I spoke with him: What would help the perception of Stoops, as long as he is at OU, is cashing in when expectations are at their highest. The Sooners failed to do that in 2011, but they are again ramped up for 2014.

Oklahoma really, really should be in the playoff this season, given the schedule ahead of it. As Schlabach said, "Somebody has to win the Big 12 ..."

Georgia Bulldogs
SEC FPR RANK: 4

The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category. Category averages are weighted by importance to generate overall score.

Coaching: Let's put it this way: Last year and its injury situation notwithstanding, would other coaches have done more with Georgia's talent and recruiting base than Mark Richt has? The Bulldogs have sort of been close a couple of times, but are they a legit playoff threat moving forward? At No. 8, I suppose that's a gray area.

None of this is to say that Richt is some sort of failure. After all, he is up nearly a point in our ratings. Maybe that's the result of the coaching job that he did to get the Bulldogs through last season's trials.

Or maybe the boost is as a result of the upgrade at defensive coordinator, from Todd Grantham -- who was considered overrated by even those on the payroll -- to FSU's Pruitt.

Current talent: Pruitt might be able to elevate that side of the ball in time, but some, Luginbill included, believe the interim could be shaky. Quite possibly three of the most talented young players -- Tray Matthews, Josh Harvey-Clemons and Shaq Wiggins -- transferred or were dismissed since last season.

"It's as down talent-level-wise on defense as I've seen certainly in Mark Richt's tenure," Luginbill told me. "They don't have depth. ... I don't know outside one or two guys that would have started for Florida State last year. Coaching is one thing, but they've got to replenish their depth and talent pool."

Sunnier news: If a RB wins the Heisman, I am convinced it will be Todd Gurley. Then again, the award could be either won or lost depending on how new (but veteran) QB Hutson Mason performs. It's been quite some time since UGA had QB questions.

Recruiting: It begins and ends with Atlanta. It isn't Texas, California or Florida, but it's a nice consolation. Granted, there are a lot of programs working the capital of the South, but they don't carry the name of the state's flagship. Georgia has an inborn advantage, wearing the silver britches.

But it hearkens back to the same question: As much as Richt does, could he do more? And would another coach do more with the talent in Atlanta?

Title path: It's better to be in the SEC East than West, and we are not anticipating a sudden shift in power back to the East. All of the 2014 division favorites are flawed, in various ways. And Georgia reached the title game in consecutive years (2011-12), so the Bulldogs know the way to their backyard in Atlanta.

Georgia also wraps a home-and-home with Clemson this season.

Program power: Richt has no doubt been a consistent winner, but not being able to break through in a big way has kept Georgia from pushing the teams listed above. Will it remain that way, with Bulldogs fans wondering what 5 more yards in the SEC title game two years ago would have done for the program and ultimately Richt's legacy?

Pruitt's work retooling the defense could very well determine that.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
IND FPR RANK: 1

The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category. Category averages are weighted by importance to generate overall score.

Coaching: "I think Brian Kelly has proven himself. He's won everywhere," Schlabach said. "They went to a national championship game when no one expected them to."

Plus, Kelly has shown that he is able to deal well with the attention and scrutiny that comes with being the coach at Notre Dame, even during a run to the national title game. Kelly must be feeling comfortable because he intends to call plays again this fall. Former offensive coordinator Chuck Martin, who took the head-coaching job at Miami (Ohio), had previously called them.

On defense, Bob Diaco left for UConn and took the 3-4 with him. Brian VanGorder will install an NFL-brand 4-3, one that can sometimes prove complicated for college players to learn and execute.

Current talent: Where's this 2014 team? You'll likely see the Irish start somewhere in the middle of the top 25.

"I don't think they're as good as we thought they were in 2012," Schlabach said, "and I don't think they're as bad as they were last year."

Schlabach added that he wants to see how much QB Everett Golson, who sat out last season, progresses as a passer. I just saw him at the Elite 11 finals in Oregon, where he was a counselor, and Golson has added about 15 pounds from 2012. His arm was accurate and strong. Golson, hinting at a more wide-open offense, told me there's significantly more depth at WR than there was in 2012. He likes RB Greg Bryant as an offensive breakout candidate. Bryant, RecruitingNation's No. 2-rated back in 2013, was redshirted last fall.

On defense, the familiar names -- Stephon Tuitt, Prince Shembo, et al -- are gone, but there is a new infusion of talent that includes LB Jaylon Smith and CB KeiVarae Russell.

Recruiting: Luginbill said the staff has put increased emphasis on finding linemen, often going into the Southeast to pluck them.

"I think the ACC deal [playing a partial ACC schedule] is going to help with that," Luginbill said. "The skill guys are everywhere, and I think Brian Kelly knows that, but he has to get interior people to compete with the best of the best."

Have they found them? Sort of, according to Luginbill. He said a player like Atlanta's Isaac Rochell arrived a year ago, but the DE needed more time to develop than, say, Tuitt. They'll eventually emerge, Luginbill believes.

Title path: The move to (almost) join the ACC could also make for a better road to the four-team playoff. The load is a little lighter, in theory, and the committee can now associate the Irish with a conference.

"If you're dropping Michigan and playing five ACC opponents, I think they probably have a better path to getting in the four-team playoff," Schlabach said.

Program power: "As mediocre as Notre Dame has been the last 20 years, it's still a top-five job in the country because it's Notre Dame," Schlabach said. "There seems to be a heck of a lot more stability and progress than there was with Charlie Weis. That team that [lost to LSU in 2006], we can now look back and agree, was a one-hit wonder.

"Kelly seems to have a plan in place, and they're making progress."

Could the NFL come calling and disrupt that plan? "I'd be surprised," Schlabach said. "I think he's exactly where he wants to be."

Texas Longhorns
BIG 12 FPR RANK: 2

The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category. Category averages are weighted by importance to generate overall score.

Coaching: Something I wrote recently irritated Texas fans. I think a couple of things were overlooked in that story.

One, coaches I know think Charlie Strong is a heck of an X's-and-O's football coach. They believe he will win in Austin, though it might look and sound unconventional compared to what people are used to there.

Secondly, it probably doesn't matter whether he can deliver a strong speech; winning is what matters most. He seems determined to do that his way, and most people I know believe he will ultimately be successful in Austin.

Now, was Strong the No. 1 choice for Texas? I was reminded again this summer by those close to the program that the Saban thing was not just a smokescreen. There was legitimate interest. The Longhorns aimed for the moon, but it's not as if they completely whiffed in hiring Strong. He received a 7 from the panel, but remember that Malzahn was given a 5.6 a year ago. That first season greatly shapes our perception.

Current talent: The perception of coaches I talk to is that Strong and his assistants will motivate his players to play harder than the previous staff. "I think they've got a chance [in the Big 12] this year," one coach told me. "Well, if David Ash is the quarterback they have a chance."

That coach evidently does not think sophomore Tyrone Swoopes is ready. Ash is returning from a concussion that cut short his 2013 season. With Malcolm Brown, Johnathan Gray and Joe Bergeron, the Longhorns might have the best RB group outside the SEC. DT Malcom Brown, DE Cedric Reed and CB Quandre Diggs have all-conference potential on the other side of the ball.

Recruiting: It will be interesting to see how Strong goes about recruiting the talent-rich state.

"I think one thing we should have seen, if we had our eyes open, is that loading up on four- and five-star players doesn't mean you're going to win," Edwards said. So maybe Strong carries over his approach from Louisville, finding more modestly talented players who are motivated by being less heralded in the recruiting process.

"You know who has done that? Baylor," Luginbill said. "But Baylor isn't Texas and Texas isn't Baylor."

When Strong was at Louisville, many of those types of players came from Florida. Will Strong continue to look there? If so, how much? There is pressure on the coach at Texas to take Texas players. Does Strong even care about that? My early impression is that he doesn't. His track record for evaluation has been outstanding; I am sure that was a big reason he got the job.

"Just because Texas is no longer getting the big-name guys, it doesn't really matter," Edwards said. "There's too much talent in that state for anyone recruiting relatively well."

That's especially true if you're the biggest brand in the state.

Title path: The rivalry with Texas A&M still remains, even if the schools no longer play. They are still constantly compared to one another. And when it comes to the road to the playoff, there's very little to compare. For all the benefits that the SEC provides A&M, there is a downside.

"I say Texas will get [to the playoff] before A&M because the road is so much easier," Edwards said. "If the talent gets where it should be, they've got to beat Oklahoma, win that one game. A&M has to go 5-1 against a really tough six-game schedule."

Program power: Texas spends the most and it earns the most. It has every imaginable resource. It's the best job in college football, and coaches rarely argue otherwise.

So why isn't it a unanimous 10 in this category, like it would have been in Mack Brown's heyday? Strong has to show he can win big there first.

Clemson Tigers
ACC FPR RANK: 2

The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category. Category averages are weighted by importance to generate overall score.

Coaching: Dabo Swinney does an outstanding job serving as the face of the program, but it's no secret that our 7.4 rating is also due to two terrific coordinators in Chad Morris on offense and Brent Venables on defense.

So if one or both left, would Clemson drop in our rankings? Possibly, though Luginbill says we should at least see whom the Tigers would hire. He said his suggestion for Swinney would be Auburn OC Rhett Lashlee.

"He would make sense. He fits the bill," Luginbill said. "If they hired someone like that, I don't think you'd see a drop-off."

Current talent: It's an overhaul on offense, but the defense has a chance to be one of the best in the country. DE Vic Beasley and DT Grady Jarrett are All-America candidates on a D-line that features six seniors. CB Mackensie Alexander has a chance to be a breakout performer in the secondary.

As for that offense, Luginbill echoed my thought that freshman QB Deshaun Watson could be playing by October. That's not necessarily a knock on Cole Stoudt, named the starter after the spring, but Morris told me a QB with running ability would be a big plus.

The defense will be asked to keep the Tigers in games while the offense comes together. The youth will eventually be a bonus, but playing Georgia and FSU by Sept. 20 isn't how you would draw it up if you were Swinney. WR and OT are particular concerns, especially in those early matchups.

Recruiting: The Tigers, currently No. 2 behind Alabama in our RecruitingNation class rankings, are surging. That includes one five-star and 15 four-star commitments. The staff has done well in Atlanta and Florida, even when the home state has not produced enough talent to go around between Clemson and rival South Carolina.

Title path: Generally, the ACC would provide an easy road, but Clemson has lost to FSU each of the past two seasons and it would be a major upset if the Tigers were to beat the Seminoles in Tallahassee, Florida, on Sept. 20.

The other problem is that Steve Spurrier has had Swinney's number. Clemson has lost five consecutive games to South Carolina, constituting the Tigers' longest losing streak in the series' 100-plus-year history. If those things continue, we might as well have rated Clemson at a 0 for title path. The Tigers cannot get into the playoff losing to those two teams, especially considering the timing of the South Carolina game. But beyond those obstacles, and maybe Notre Dame when it is on the schedule, Clemson is well positioned.

"Relative to the rest of the conference, I think Clemson is too talented to go away," Edwards said.

Program power: Luginbill suggested that no team in the ACC -- including FSU, or even Notre Dame -- has better commitment to winning than Clemson. There is no debate or strife if the football program needs anything; it just happens.

Schools that are committed to winning often do just that. That's why Clemson, which just won its first BCS bowl game, is ranked as highly as it is.

Texas A&M Aggies
SEC FPR RANK: 5

The bar graphs reflect the average points given by the voters for each category. Category averages are weighted by importance to generate overall score.

Coaching: Kevin Sumlin could have had the USC job or a handful of NFL jobs if he wanted them. But he wants to make A&M a winner, and the strides have been admirable so far. The Aggies have shown they can beat anyone, including Alabama and Oklahoma. They've also shown that they have to overcome a shaky defense to do so.

DC Mark Snyder is highly respected by his peers, but Sumlin's hand could be forced if the defense -- 109th in yards per play in 2013 -- does not show some semblance of improvement.

"That defense was a disaster a year ago," Huard said. "They didn't want to hit. They didn't want to tackle."

In short, the personnel is lacking. Rival coaches were literally laughing at some of the players who had to play big snaps last season. I recently heard an interesting name for a Snyder replacement: Muschamp. But a lot would have to happen for that to come to pass.

OC Jake Spavital is a rising star in the game. His work to keep Johnny Manziel focused and on task is not to be undervalued. That was a daily challenge.

Current talent: The Aggies are now in the position of replacing the most exciting QB of our generation.

"Everyone is intrigued to see what lies after Johnny Football," Huard said. "Is it that different than Florida after Tebow or Colt McCoy at Texas.

"I've got to see life after Johnny. I really, really do. Anyone who says it's no problem, I just think that's putting a whole lot of faith into a lot of unknowns. As much as I respect and appreciate Sumlin, that dude [Manziel] was a game-changer at quarterback."

This year, it will be either sophomore Kenny Hill or freshman Kyle Allen, but those close to the program are already calling '15 commitment Kyler Murray "a more polished Johnny Football."

Now those are some expectations for a kid with another semester in high school ...

Recruiting: Murray's decision included, A&M might be the hottest recruiting ticket in the country. It currently has the No. 3-ranked class, according to RecruitingNation.

Luginbill wondered if the Aggies are getting too big, too fast when it comes to recruiting . But that's a question for another day.

For now, A&M has to get players on campus, especially on defense. This fall the Ags will add No. 1 DE Myles Garrett, No. 9 DT DeShawn Washington and No. 12 OLB Otaro Alaka, a late victory for A&M over Texas. In the 2015 class, A&M has a commitment from five-star DT Daylon Mack.

Title path: As far as the Aggies have come, you see how far they have to go to truly be on the same level as Alabama, LSU and Auburn. Starting this season at South Carolina was not a favor, either.

Program power: While most programs are cutting back on stadium expansion, A&M is adding seats and completely overhauling Kyle Field at the not-so-modest cost of $450 million.

Sumlin loves telling the story that a quarter of that money was privately raised in a week's time; there's plenty of support, which is why Sumlin did not take those other jobs.

With support also comes pressure, but the Aggies seem to be having a good time right now building a program.

Oregon Ducks
PAC-12 FPR RANK: 2

Coaching: Frankly, as of right now, there isn't a tremendous amount of faith in second-year coach Mark Helfrich.

"I think Oregon will be a seven-win program in three years," someone familiar with the program told me this week while I was in Portland, Oregon, for the Elite 11 finals. "[Helfrich] seems like a nice guy, but I don't think he's the right guy for the job."

Edwards wasn't that direct, but he agreed there are questions after Year 1. "It's too early to really say with any certainty what kind of coach he is," Edwards said. "The odds are against being able to promote the offensive coordinator as many times in a row and it being successful each time."

The Stanford loss last fall was one thing, Edwards added, but getting crushed by Arizona was another. Recall that the Ducks were saying that week that the Rose Bowl was beneath them.

"Everyone said that would not have happened under Chip Kelly," Edwards said. "You would not have had guys complaining about the Rose Bowl and then come out flat in a conference game. That was kind of a strike one on Helfrich in the minds of a lot of people."

Add to that a change at DC with Nick Aliotti retiring after 17 years. That's more uncertainty, even if his replacement, Don Pellum, had coached Oregon's LBs for 13 years.

"I don't think there's a close No. 2 when it comes to the pressure to win right now," Huard said. "That's not a hot-seat conversation. It's a reality of where their program is, to the heights that Kelly took it. You kind of have to win now or else."

Current talent: A big reason for Huard saying that is that Oregon has such an experienced team in 2014. For now, with QB Marcus Mariota and CB Ifo Ekpre-Olomu leading the way, the Ducks are loaded.

They should be a playoff team. But Oregon, thanks largely to Stanford, has had a way of falling just short of big expectations.

"If you don't get over that hump with an NFL franchise quarterback, and with the way the conference is improving around you, when do you win?" Huard said.

Recruiting: The past three times we've ranked Oregon classes 18th, 26th and 27th. (The Ducks are currently 18th.) That does not preclude a program from success, but it doesn't suggest elite-level talent, either. The Ducks have been outstanding at ID'ing players for their system, but is that sustainable in an increasingly difficult conference?

There are real questions about who will follow Mariota, or what that plan is. Four-star Travis Waller, who participated in the Elite 11 finals and The Opening, did not draw rave reviews from our recruiting analysts.

Title path: "Even if Chip [Kelly] were still there, I don't know that it would make a huge difference," Edwards said. "I think the fact that USC is getting its scholarship numbers back changes the landscape of that conference. It no longer sets up where Oregon and Stanford can just dominate and it basically comes down to who wins the [Pac-12] North."

It's fair to ask: How open is Oregon's window?

Program power: Despite a somewhat gloomy picture being painted, Oregon still does have one heck of an ace in Nike owner Phil Knight.

He supported the endeavor to make the Oregon brand what it is. You think he's just going to let that wither?

Knight is the biggest reason that the Ducks are still an 8.8 in this category.

Florida Gators
SEC FPR RANK: 6

Coaching: In going to the Sugar Bowl, the 2012 team overachieved. Then the mangled 2013 squad won four games.

With those mixed-bag results in mind, what's the magic number for Will Muschamp to save his job? The panel was torn.

"I think [he's back in 2015]," Schlabach said. "Regardless of what Florida fans want to hear, I think [AD] Jeremy Foley is going to be patient with him." Muschamp told Schlabach last fall, after the pile of injuries, that not even Roger Staubach at QB would have saved Florida at the end of last season. "He really does think they're going to be better," Schlabach said. "He's excited about this team. He's excited about [new OC] Kurt Roper."

Edwards is leaning toward a coaching change at UF.

"I don't think it's as simple as 'you need to show improvement,'" Edwards said. "I think Foley wants to see something to lead him to believe that Muschamp is the type of coach who can win a national title. Ultimately, that's the expectation at Florida. They should be contending for national titles on a regular basis.

"If he doesn't give the AD a chance to believe [that], then I don't think Muschamp is back. ... I don't think 8-4 is enough."

Let's say it doesn't work out for Muschamp. Wouldn't there still be reason to be hopeful about the future at Florida? It is very similar to what just happened at both USC and Texas.

Current talent: When healthy, Florida is the most talented team in the SEC East. Our ratings back up that thought: While the Gators are an 8 here, Georgia is a 7.8 and South Carolina is a 7.2.

The O-line has to show improvement under Roper, and it should (if healthy). The same goes for QB Jeff Driskel (if healthy). If Roper is a QB whisperer, and that's his rep, then this is a supreme challenge. Physically, Driskel is an NFL talent, but he needs to actually play to that level.

Virginia transfer Jake McGee could have a very big year at TE. Roper said the position is very important in his system.

CB Vernon Hargreaves could probably start in the NFL right now. DL Dante Fowler could have a big year in the eyes of pro scouts, too.

Recruiting: The Gators have averaged the fourth-ranked class since Muschamp took over, so, no, that hasn't been an issue recently. And it shouldn't be, given the location of the UF campus. They should be just as loaded as FSU is currently.

Keeping those guys healthy, though, is another matter.

Title path: This goes back to the initial "magic number" conversation. In addition to the SEC East schedule, Florida plays the defending national champ in Tallahassee and has its annual cross-divisional game against LSU.

"Even if they're vastly improved from a year ago, they could still go 8-4 [because of the schedule]," Schlabach said. "[Muschamp] really needs to beat Georgia and be competitive against FSU."

Program power: As Edwards said, regardless of the schedule's difficulty, the expectation is to be in contention for national titles. The resources are plentiful. The recruiting turf is as good as it is anywhere. And there's the added motivation that FSU is now "back."

Stanford Cardinal
PAC-12 FPR RANK: 3

Coaching: Someone should check to make sure Schlabach is not actually working as David Shaw's agent.

That's a joke. But he's a fan.

"I would put him in the top three coaches in the country right now," said Schlabach, who gave Shaw a 9.

"We always talk about what Stanford doesn't have and by the time the season's over they are in a BCS bowl," Schlabach said, adding that the NFL plucking Shaw is "the biggest threat to Stanford's success."

Current talent: It's another year in which there is significant turnover in Palo Alto, California. Huard sees another strong O-line, but wonders about the front seven on defense. "The senior-laden crew that just moved on to the NFL played so well together because they grew up together and built a chemistry in their 3-4 scheme," Huard said. "[DC] Derek Mason moves on, the ID of their team -- the front seven -- moves on and the conference keeps moving on up.

"This is Shaw's stiffest challenge yet."

I like DE Henry Anderson and LB A.J. Tarpley quite a bit, and I'm high on SS Jordan Richards, but Huard's point is valid. Stanford lost a lot of snaps on that side -- plus its coordinator.

Running back is another position to monitor. Then again, it was a mystery last year, when Tyler Gaffney emerged as another 1,000-yard rusher. Is it Barry J. Sanders' time? He has been used mostly as a screen specialist to this point.

Recruiting: The model is unique to everyone except probably Notre Dame. It's a national scope, with academics as a big part of the foundation. It has worked extremely well for the better part of a decade.

Even if the Cardinal are not always battling Alabama for the same recruit, or the same kind of recruit, Stanford finds perfect fits for its system. No one in the country is more improbably sustainable than Stanford.

Title path: As Huard hinted, the improving Pac-12 provides a challenge for everyone, including the Cardinal. In the division, Chris Petersen's hire at Washington means there is one more hurdle to clear to reach the league's title game.

Program power: "Every year we say Stanford can't do it again, they do it again," Schlabach said. "I think they are the pre-eminent program on the West Coast. They have a proven model. And they have Oregon's number."

UCLA Bruins
PAC-12 FPR RANK: 4

Coaching: I hadn't really considered it, but Huard thinks Shaw might not be the only Pac-12 coach who winds up in the NFL.

"I'll be really curious to see what that sustainability is there," Huard said. "[Jim] Mora is a volatile guy. He's a passionate, intense guy. He reminds me of what Harbaugh did at Stanford.

"He agitates and instigates and changes the culture. Harbaugh moved back to the NFL. Carroll went back to the NFL. If he ultimately follows [other Pac-12 coaches], how sustainable is that program following him?"

Current talent: It's time for the 12th-ranked class in 2013 to stand out. LB/RB Myles Jack already has. But it's time for prodigious youngsters such as WR Eldridge Massington, DE Kylie Fitts and OG Caleb Benenoch. They could determine the team's ceiling, which I think is actually quite high. UCLA might have the most experienced returning secondary in the country.

Of course, QB Brett Hundley spurning the NFL is a big reason why UCLA has become a trendy playoff pick. (More on that in a sec.)

Recruiting: UCLA isn't cranking out top-five classes, but Mora has done a nice job of elevating the program's profile in the city, state, region and country.

Hundley was a huge get for the previous staff. But Mora has followed with his possible successor, Asiantii Woulard. And I've heard great things about '15 commitment Josh Rosen, the big-armed, 6-foot-4 prospect who is RecruitingNation's top-rated pocket passer.

Title path: As far as those trendy 2014 playoff projections, at least consider that the Bruins play both Oregon and Stanford out of the Pac-12 North. And they have to go to Arizona State and Washington, plus a Week 3 trip to Texas. If they survive all that, they would again have to play (likely) either Oregon or Stanford in the Pac-12 title game.

And as we continue to say, it's a league on the rise. It appears it will only get more difficult to win in the coming years.

Michigan State Spartans
BIG TEN FPR RANK: 2

Coaching: "[Mark] Dantonio is East Lansing tough," Huard said. "There are fake tough guys, and he isn't one of them. [DC Pat] Narduzzi and Dantonio don't need to rewrite their playbooks with fancy new schemes. They do what they do very well.

"While I don't expect them to win in Eugene [Oregon] in Week 2, I don't expect them to beat themselves, either."

Current talent: A year ago, Connor Cook was battling for the backup QB job. Now he's rising up draft boards, a potential first-rounder next spring. It helps that he will throw to senior WRs Tony Lippett and Keith Mumphery, both of whom improved greatly once Cook won the job midway through last season.

Michigan State also returns one of the top five RBs in the country, in Jeremy Langford.

Defensively, Narduzzi still has a ton with which to work. DE Shilique Calhoun is an all-conference performer, and FS Kurtis Drummond and CB Trae Waynes are, as well.

Recruiting: "There's a false perception that their roster is littered with two- and three-star kids," Luginbill said. "There are more four-stars than people think. They recruit better players than people think."

It's true. The Spartans didn't have a single five-star in the past two classes, but they did have 13 four-stars.

They do a nice job recruiting outside their region, too. All-American CB Darqueze Dennard, for one, grew up in rural Georgia.

Title path: If not for an early stumble against Notre Dame, before they found Cook, the Spartans would have played for the national title last season. So the path is just fine, thank you. They're again the primary roadblock to Ohio State's chances. Even if MSU loses close at Oregon, I would bet that it could still win out and get in the playoff hunt.

Program power: Despite last year's breakthrough success, Michigan State is still a bit low in this category. Perhaps we have to see some offensive sustainability -- or a win at Oregon -- to really buy into the Spartans fully.

South Carolina Gamecocks
SEC FPR RANK: 7

Coaching: The only people who don't like Steve Spurrier, I am convinced, are Redskins and Georgia fans. Oh, and Clemson folks. And even those fan bases would profess approval of Spurrier, in a weaker moment.

There's no way around it: College football is more fun when Spurrier's teams are good (even if your team is on the butt end of his barbs). And his South Carolina teams have been good. Still, they have played for just one conference title (2010) -- despite beating the SEC East champ the past three seasons.

"He took a jab at Nick Saban for not winning more SEC championships," Schlabach said, "but you could argue that he should have more SEC East titles with how Florida, Tennessee and Georgia have been down."

Will the spry-but-69-year-old Spurrier outlast the three-year window of this exercise? Schlabach and Luginbill say yes.

"I think he's going to hang on as long as he can, until he gets an SEC championship at South Carolina," Schlabach said.

Luginbill: "As long as coaching is fun and not a burden, he'll do it as long as they will let him. I see a 5-10-year window. I don't see long-term recruiting effects in a negative fashion."

As someone who has watched a middling South Carolina season (or two, or three) up close, all I'll say is that window could shrink in a hurry if the Gamecocks again regress to the eight-win level.

Current talent: Spurrier loves QB Dylan Thompson, but Thompson starting will require a bit of an offensive philosophy change. Thompson isn't equipped to run as much of the zone-read offense (what Connor Shaw was so good at) so you have to wonder if that change will be seamless. Spurrier is probably excited to incorporate more passing, but, again, the run game is what has made South Carolina rise.

What helps: RB Mike Davis is a dark-horse Heisman candidate, in part because he will run behind the best O-line that Spurrier has had at South Carolina. Credit OL coach Shawn Elliott for that evolution. It was a mess before he arrived from Appalachian State.

On defense, the DL is a shell of what it was two years ago, but the LBs are more versatile and aggressive. If DC Lorenzo Ward finds a couple of "C.J. Mosley Lites" and gets consistent play from the secondary, the Gamecocks could be fine, but they'll likely be in a bunch of close, close games.

Recruiting: The in-state well, at least the one that produced prodigious talents such as Alshon Jeffery, Marcus Lattimore and Jadeveon Clowney, has dried a bit. But Spurrier has hired solid recruiters who have worked well in Atlanta, Florida and even the Northeast. QBs coach G.A. Mangus has gotten the Gamecocks into Pennsylvania and New Jersey, though James Franklin's arrival at Penn State could curb that.

If the cycle shifts back so that the state of South Carolina is again fertile, the Gamecocks could remain sustainable for several more years.

Title path: It isn't tremendous, but if not for odd-ball losses to Auburn (2011) and Tennessee (2013), the Gamecocks could have played for additional SEC titles -- and an elusive first-ever BCS bowl bid. If Spurrier is serious about a conference title, South Carolina needs to stop losing as a favorite.

To his credit, as mentioned earlier, Clemson has become an afterthought for the Gamecocks. It has made a huge, huge difference in terms of morale for the state's flagship school.

Program power: Our rating (7.2) is fairly modest, but the reality is South Carolina is riding as high as it ever has. It has three consecutive school record-setting 11-win seasons, including bowl victories against Nebraska, Michigan and Wisconsin. Plus, five straight wins versus Clemson and the No. 1 pick in the 2014 NFL draft.

What's clearly missing: that elusive SEC title. If Spurrier got that and the Gamecocks reached the playoff, he would likely ride into the sunset and head to his Florida beach house.

Baylor Bears
BIG 12 FPR RANK: 3

Coaching: This might seem a bit low for the Big 12 champs, but the UCF loss likely hurt the Bears. And they haven't shown if they can continue to sustainably win, though I suspect that they will.

Huard said his brother, a coach at Georgia State, visited Baylor this offseason and was impressed by what he found.

"Their system may be simple on the whiteboard, but they seemingly have answers for everything a defense throws at them," Huard said, adding that Art Briles might have been a Saban-level star if he had started his college career at a younger age.

Knowing him, I suspect Briles, who doesn't even do a radio call-in show, is fine with the way things turned out. He wasn't even overtly interested in the Texas job. He's fired up about Baylor's arc and, in particular, its new riverside stadium.

Current talent: The offense has been one of the country's best recently, and it will be again. QB Bryce Petty is the real deal, a genuinely nice kid with an equally nice skill set.

Then you place him with young stud RBs Shock Linwood and Devin Chafin and a WR group, which even with Robbie Rhodes' dismissal, has Levi Norwood and Antwan Goodley. I think it's still one of the best position groups in the nation.

Can DC Phil Bennett's defense continue to improve? The unit was ninth last year in efficiency, but that was largely due to senior presences such as LB Eddie Lackey and S Ahmad Dixon. Briles said he believes the DL, led by Penn State transfer Shawn Oakman, will be strong enough to overcome any deficiencies in the back end.

Recruiting: Luginbill thinks the balance of recruiting and success might be getting out of whack for Baylor.

"You don't wave a magic wand," he said. "Does the expectation level and does the fan base, notoriety and exposure exceed the pace of where you want to get?

"Are they going to expect Baylor to recruit to the level of Oklahoma and Texas and winning 10, 11, 12 games a year when the program is still in the infant stages? How do you temper that enthusiasm?"

Specifically, I know Baylor was disappointed that it missed on '15 QB Jarrett Stidham, who instead picked Texas Tech.

"That kid couldn't make a bad decision," Luginbill said. "He'll be great in either offense."

Title path: Baylor has not gotten on board with scheduling even remotely challenging nonconference games. I think it could hurt it if the selection committee is down to two or three teams. The Bears would have been left out a year ago, I believe (Briles doesn't).

The Big 12 is currently a two-team league, but Texas figures to again soon join that top shelf. Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and TCU could make noise, too.

Baylor is fairly well positioned, but it's not that far away from again being marginalized. It's critical in the next couple of years that the Bears prove last year was no one-hit-wonder performance.

Program power: Petty repeated something this week at Elite 11 that Briles told me in the spring: Baylor believes that it is now the hunted.

"Everyone knows the Big 12 title now goes through Waco, Texas," Briles told me this spring.

I reminded both of them that Oklahoma would likely still be the media's Big 12 favorite. So the chip-on-the-shoulder era at Baylor is not yet over.

Briles' passion and conviction are to be taken seriously, but Baylor is still on the ascent. It isn't "there" yet, even if it has a cool, new stadium.

"Much like Oklahoma State, it's hard to put the Bears in the group of 15 or so teams with a legit shot at a title every year," Huard said, "but their speed, system and under-the-radar wealth may produce that dark horse every five years to get into the playoff race."

Michigan Wolverines
BIG TEN FPR RANK: 3

Coaching: No program fell more in our rankings than Michigan, which dropped 15 spots following a 7-6 season that included losses in six of the last eight games.

"Brady [Hoke] needs to win," Schlabach said. "The problem is, Urban [Meyer] has turned OSU into a juggernaut and now Dantonio has built a really good program at Michigan State."

He added that he thinks OC Doug Nussmeier is an upgrade over Al Borges, a veteran whose game plan had gotten stale.

Current talent: "I think they need to show marked improvement," Schlabach said. "They have to get better on both lines of scrimmage more than anything.

"Everyone is blaming [QB] Devin Gardner, but the line was so bad and they did not have any real run game."

Derrick Green and De'Veon Smith appear to be capable runners, but will the line be improved enough for max impact? Not from what I'm hearing.

With vets DE Frank Clark, LB Jake Ryan and NB Blake Countess, the defense could be relied upon to keep games close.

Recruiting: Here comes a painful comparison for Michigan fans: Chizik-era Auburn, without the Cam Newton title year. Michigan had the Nos. 6 and 7 classes in 2012 and 2013. If you recruit that well and you do not produce, it begins to work against you.

And then there's that menace to the South.

"I can't imagine Michigan is just going to let Ohio State go," Edwards said, "but I don't think Michigan is comfortable spending the kind of money and using the kind of resources to compete with Ohio State. I think it goes against the academic image they lean on.

"But you've got to become more of a football factory if you're going to compete on that level."

Title path: The gap from Michigan to Michigan State and Ohio State does feel wide at the moment, but remember that a beleaguered Wolverines squad did manage to push the Buckeyes to the brink last season.

Notre Dame rolls off the schedule after this season, so that could be helpful. Then again, the start of the 2015 schedule is really pretty bizarre, regionally: at Utah, Oregon State, UNLV, BYU. Michigan is still in Ann Arbor, Michigan, isn't it?

Program power: Momentum is definitely working against Michigan. But we said the same thing a year ago about Oklahoma, a program with similar history and tradition (albeit a far more stable coaching situation). Hoke's program is at a crossroads. He could be Muschamp entering 2015, or he could be Bob Stoops. That's one heck of a spectrum.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
BIG 12 FPR RANK: 4

Coaching: The Oregon comparisons are compliments.

"There's the link to a prominent booster [T. Boone Pickens], but that should not overshadow the coaching job [Mike] Gundy has done for a long time," Huard said of Gundy, who is 77-38 at his alma mater. "He feels a lot like Chip [Kelly] did at Oregon. [He's] innovative, all-in, and a very good teacher and mentor to both the staff and players." Is he really all-in, though? What about those flirtations with Arkansas and Tennessee? I have lost count of how many people tell me there is internal friction between Gundy and AD Mike Holder and president Burns Hargis.

Gundy has created sustainability in a place where it seems unlikely. But is that now being threatened for myriad reasons?

Current talent: The Cowboys replace as many starters (17) as anyone in the country -- and they have defending national champion FSU in the opener in Dallas.

"I hope that we improve and get better by Week 6," Gundy told me this spring. "And I know who we play Week 1. I'm not a dummy."

There was some hope that freshman QB Mason Rudolph could challenge for the job, but I've been told in the past month that OSU is now just wondering if he will stay on campus. Limited-thrower J.W. Walsh will be the quarterback, barring surprise.

WR/RB Tyreek Hill is going to be a blast to watch on an otherwise so-so 2014 team.

Recruiting: Gundy admitted to me this spring that it's a real challenge, compared to others in the region. Stillwater, Oklahoma, makes Austin, Texas, feel like NYC. Even Norman, Oklahoma, feels cosmopolitan.

Given that, the staff has done an outstanding job to make Oklahoma State a destination for young players. The resources and the pro pipeline are solid. Baylor and Texas Tech can only hope for similar success stories in desolate depots.

Title path: The historical narrative is that OSU simply could not win in Austin or Norman, but those games have gotten much, much more competitive. The Pokes are winning some of those now, thanks to their rise and OU's/Texas' decline.

One point of contention between Gundy and the administration, I have been told, is nonconference scheduling. Gundy would prefer it remain vanilla, but it doesn't seem like he won that battle if FSU is the team's first game this season

Program power: Oklahoma State was a nothing program -- Barry Sanders and a dream -- but Pickens and Gundy have brought it along to make it somewhat relevant.

The state of affairs could be even better. Remember that the Cowboys were seconds away from another Big 12 title and Fiesta Bowl berth in 2013, if not for a long TD drive from then-offensively inept Oklahoma.

Gundy, and Miles (at LSU) before him, has provided the standard for programs with limited histories.

Penn State Nittany Lions
BIG TEN FPR RANK: 4

Coaching: As energetic and positive as Franklin is -- and he is -- you have to first credit what Bill O'Brien did in the face of crisis.

"The program is in much better shape than anyone expected," Schlabach said. Franklin, who worked wonders at Vanderbilt, is capable of taking the next steps in Happy Valley.

"He's a guy that can build a program that's relevant again," Schlabach said. "I think (DC) Bob Shoop is really, really good and I think with Franklin's recruiting prowess that he will be able to attract really good players there despite the NCAA sanctions and everything else."

Current talent: "The fact that (QB Christian) Hackenberg went there gives them a fighting chance," Schlabach said.

Again, give the previous staff credit for being able to sway a young star QB who knew coming in that the postseason was a far-off dream.

Now it's about attracting more Hackenberg-type talents.

Recruiting: Think Franklin and his staff are having an impact? The Lions are currently fourth in our '15 RecruitingNation rankings. I watched Elite 11 QB Brandon Wimbush throw some while I was in Oregon. The New Jersey native, one of nine committed ESPN 300 prospects, looks outstanding. He's athletic, with a good, solid frame and he can sling it. Franklin is recruiting as if there were no NCAA restrictions. Imagine what PSU will be like when there aren't any hindrances.

Title path: Of the newly created Big Ten divisions, the Lions are in the much tougher one. But by the time Franklin gets everything settled, could Michigan or Michigan State slip enough to open the door for an epic duel with Ohio State?

Program power: Beaver Stadium is a terrific place to watch a game. What happened to those children is still the tragedy, without a doubt, but it's also unfortunate that the recent and current players, as well as fans, have had to suffer.

O'Brien restored dignity to the program. Franklin will take the spark of hope and turn it into a fire.

Virginia Tech Hokies
ACC FPR RANK: 3

Coaching: There's intense respect for Beamer across the college football world, but the program has been trending downward for the past two or three years.

"You certainly hope it doesn't turn into another Bobby Bowden situation at Florida State, where you have a guy trying to hang on after such a successful run," Schlabach said. "He definitely has earned his place among the top coaches in the country, given what he's done at a place like Virginia Tech.

"I don't think people appreciate what he's done there. It's as impressive as what Bill Snyder has [done] at K-State."

Two different panelists pointed to OC Scot Loeffler as a potential downfall. "It seems to have been a trouble spot the last few years," Schlabach said.

Current talent: "The way they won was the defense and special teams were great and the offense was good enough," Schlabach said. "Now the special teams have slipped, the offense has been below mediocre and the defense has really had to carry the weight."

Maybe transfer QB Michael Brewer can help stabilize things, but it doesn't evoke a lot of confidence that a Texas Tech castoff is your offense's savior. The skill positions are still question marks and it has been years since the OL has performed well.

Recruiting: Schlabach made the point that, even if Virginia hasn't piled up wins, coach Mike London has been successful recruiting the Tidewater area.

"I think the Virginia Tech job has gotten much more difficult," he said.

It's not as if the Hokies were regularly recruiting wunderkinds, but they always seemed to find proper products for their system. Something has gotten off track.

Title path: Yes, Duke deserves some recognition. But if Duke is winning your division, you probably play in a pretty wide-open division. Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Miami and Virginia Tech could trade the ACC Coastal title every year and no one would blink.

Program power: Beamer built this program from nothing. Can he keep it from slipping farther? Louisville and Notre Dame (sort of) coming to the ACC doesn't help.

Louisville Cardinals
ACC FPR RANK: 4

Coaching: Consider that Bobby Petrino, in his return to Louisville, earned the same rating as Spurrier, Dantonio and Miles. That's respect.

The panel was not asked to rate Petrino on his social skills, but we all agree that the man can coach college football. Louisville and AD Tom Jurich seem to keep finding coaches of this ilk, though Strong at least has his reputation intact.

Current talent: It isn't what it was a year ago. That can be safely said, even beyond first-round pick QB Teddy Bridgewater. I can't fully explain why the panel has the talent rated marginally higher than 2013; maybe someone was just feeling nicer this year.

Prepare yourself for a ton of TDs from new QB Will Gardner to returning playmaker DeVante Parker.

The defense, now coached by former Georgia DC Grantham, will miss draft picks DE Marcus Smith and S Calvin Pryor.

Title path: Joining the ACC is both a plus and minus. The Cardinals would have been completely marginalized in terms of the playoff if they had stayed behind in the American, but now they'll play an increasingly difficult schedule that, for instance, will include Miami, Clemson, FSU and Notre Dame this year.

Louisville adds a kickoff game against Auburn in 2015, plus a home-and-home with a dangerous Houston program. The Cards, fueled by recent success in just about every sport on campus, are not being shy about scheduling tough.

Program power: UL was trending the right way after that 2012 Sugar Bowl takedown of Florida, but the 2013 UCF loss stunted things and then Strong's decision to leave for Texas proved even more damaging.

Petrino was a risky-but-intriguing hire. Let's put it this way: Some notable programs such as Nebraska and Wisconsin didn't crack the top 25, but Petrino's club did. We're watching.

Miami (FL) Hurricanes
ACC FPR RANK: 5

Coaching: "(Al Golden) has a pretty impressive track record and those that know him really believe he is the right guy for 'The U' in the 21st Century," Huard said.

Current talent: When I was in Houston recently, I ran into former Canes DB AJ Highsmith. He said the injury this spring to QB Ryan Williams was a setback, but there is some hope that freshman Kevin Olsen or BYU/Kansas transfer Jake Heaps can emerge. Highsmith told me that RB Duke Johnson, coming back from a knee injury, was running well and is expected to be a full go for camp and the season.

He also said the defense, returning nearly everyone for a second consecutive season, should be improved. LB Denzel Perryman is a monster.

Recruiting: I was caught by surprise to see that Golden has had two top-10 classes and the other was ranked 15th. I knew he had been good on the recruiting trail but not that good.

Miami is currently a respectable 14th for the '15 class.

So the Hurricanes are getting the players on campus. The success must surely follow, right?

Title path: David Cutcliffe is a great coach, but there's no reason for Duke to beat Miami for a division title. In fairness, the Hurricanes would have won the Coastal the previous season if they didn't opt to intentionally sit out of the ACC championship game to appease the NCAA.

Miami going to Nebraska on Sept. 20 is an intriguing meeting of teams with potential. Recall that UCLA went to Lincoln last year in a similar situation and embarrassed the Huskers.

Program power: Closing the FPR with a run of ACC teams, Miami is different because of its place in the sport's history. It has resources and recruiting cachet that many of the programs listed above hope to one day garner.

When I met Golden last summer, he was understandably preoccupied with how hard the NCAA hammer would come down on the program. Turns out, it wasn't that bad and now it's behind the program.

There's no excuse now. The division is there for the taking. It's time for Miami to take a step forward.