Here’s a look at the Super Bowl prospects of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished the season 9-7.
Buccaneers Super Bowl barometer: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were slightly above middle of the pack in 2016. Their next goal is to reach the playoffs, which they narrowly missed this season after finishing 9-7. That would then make them a contender.
Assessing the foundation: The Bucs are missing a few pieces. They need more speed at wide receiver and receiving targets who can get yardage after the catch and after contact. Mike Evans can't be the only guy. They also need to improve protection for quarterback Jameis Winston and create more holes in the running game.
Running back Doug Martin, who is currently in a drug treatment facility, is no longer owed $7 million in guaranteed money. If the team opts to part ways with him, it will need another back to shoulder the load in their run-first offense. The Buccaneers should prepare for the possibility of life without him.
Defensively, safety needs an upgrade, although Bradley McDougald, Chris Conte and backup Keith Tandy stepped it up down the stretch and were a big part of a five-game winning streak. Earlier in the season, though, this was a glaring weakness.
The team also needs to solidify its kicking situation, as Roberto Aguayo was the least accurate kicker in the NFL this season, making just 71 percent of his field goals and going 4-for-10 from 40-plus yards. Considering the Bucs had three games decided by three points or less and won all three, they were lucky here. Aguayo attempted just one field goal from 50 yards. The team has already brought in some competition in John Lunsford.
Coaching-wise, Dirk Koetter had a pretty good first season, with clock management being his biggest area for improvement. His willingness to consider taking a step back from offensive playcalling to devote more time to being a head coach shows he’s honest with himself about his strengths and shortcomings, and won’t let ego get in the way. Signing defensive coordinator Mike Smith to a multiyear deal was a home run.
In three years as general manager, Jason Licht has drafted a number of current starters, Winston, Evans, offensive tackle Donovan Smith, guard Ali Marpet, linebacker Kwon Alexander and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III. Defensive end Noah Spence is also a viable contributor as a pass-rusher. Despite these successes, however, pundits will quickly point to his selection of Aguayo in the second round of the draft as a misstep. There were a couple high-profile free-agent signings that didn't pan out his first year as GM as well, and he has been much more selective about them since. His big acquisitions last season, defensive lineman Robert Ayers and cornerback Brent Grimes, both made big splashes. Offensive lineman J.R. Sweezy's injury was a huge disappointment.
Judging the quarterback: Ball security remains the biggest issue for Winston, whose 18 interceptions were second most in the league behind Philip Rivers. Opponents capitalized on those mistakes and other errors by the offense, scoring 81 points off of turnovers, eighth most in the league.
Winston’s play under duress was quite good this season, posting a 51.8 completion percentage under pressure, third best in the league. His 12 touchdowns thrown under pressure were more than any other quarterback in the NFL.
Outside the pocket, he threw 13 touchdowns, tied with Aaron Rodgers for most in the league. His 117.1 passer rating outside the pocket was also first in the league, and his 61.5 percent completion percentage outside the pocket was third in the league. He did, however, have a costly fumble against Dallas when flushed from the pocket and needs to demonstrate more awareness when trying to make plays while on the move.
Winston put together three fourth-quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives this season -- against Carolina (twice) and San Diego. He now has six in his NFL career. Those are big positives. He needs to continue improving in the red zone and on the deep ball.
His leadership and ability to rally teammates this season, even on defense, was exceptional -- that’s an intangible that can’t be taught. It’s a trait that helped him deliver a championship to Florida State and could eventually propel him to do the same in Tampa, with the right supporting cast.
Realistic ways the Bucs can improve their chances to contend for a Super Bowl:
1. Lock up Evans. This is a no-brainer, but expect him to command a high price tag (deservedly so). At 23, he's put together three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. Pay him.
2. Surround Winston with more weapons. The Bucs will have a little more than $65 million in cap space, fifth most in the NFL. They could use that on a big-time or above-average wide receiver who is 30 or younger, like potential free agents Alshon Jeffery, Kenny Britt, Terrelle Pryor, DeSean Jackson and Kenny Stills.
3. Solidify the ground game by preparing for life without Martin. If they can get Sweezy healthy, this would be huge, too.
4. Upgrade at safety. This was a position neglected in last year's draft. The unit showed significant improvement during the season and Tandy was a huge bright spot, but they need an absolute stud here.
5. Keep bolstering the pass rush. You simply cannot have enough good pass-rushers, especially with quarterbacks Rodgers, Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees and Cam Newton all on the schedule next season.