PHILADELPHIA -- The tone was set for what promises to be an unprecedented offseason for quarterback movement when the Detroit Lions agreed to send Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams for Jared Goff, a pair of future first-round picks and a third-round pick in the 2021 NFL draft.
The blockbuster deal last weekend got the NFL world buzzing, and sent amateur detectives off searching for clues on what it meant for other quarterbacks and teams in limbo, particularly Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Goff/Wentz parallels
It's remarkable how closely the careers of Goff, 26, and Wentz, 28, have been tied together. Represented by the same agency, they trained together during the pre-draft process before being selected No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in 2016. Each helped his team to three playoff appearances in five years, including a trip to the Super Bowl. (Wentz was injured in December 2017 while playing against Goff and the Rams and missed the postseason.)
Both were rewarded with giant second contracts, with Wentz signing a four-year, $128 million extension in June 2019 before Goff secured a four-year, $134 million deal three months later.
Will they now be traded in the same offseason?
The relationship between Goff and Rams coach Sean McVay reportedly became strained in 2020, just as it had between Wentz and former Eagles coach Doug Pederson, who was fired in January after he and owner Jeffrey Lurie failed to see eye-to-eye on a vision for the the team's future. When McVay was asked last month whether Goff would remain on the roster in 2021, he said he couldn't answer any of those questions until he evaluated everything. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni provided an almost identical answer when asked about Wentz's future at his introductory news conference last week.
The change at coach is where these parallels split.
It is to be determined whether the Sirianni hire will create a path forward for Wentz in Philadelphia. But the Goff trade shows that it's typically not a good sign when a team is noncommittal about their onetime franchise QB, and it's possible to move a quarterback who has recently been locked into a megadeal even when his value is depressed.
But at what return?
The catch is the Rams needed to sweeten the deal with the Lions in order to unload Goff's contract, whereas the Eagles would be looking for significant compensation in exchange for Wentz. Those two things don't add up.
It doesn't make a ton of sense for the Eagles to reduce their options at QB and absorb a $30 plus million dead-cap hit in 2021 by trading Wentz without getting decent value back. Wentz's contract isn't terribly cumbersome for an acquiring team -- he is to make $23.5 million on average over the next two seasons, and it's fairly easy to get out of the deal after that -- but there's obvious risk involved given Wentz's play fell off this past season and there's no guarantee he will rebound.
Finding the sweet spot in terms of proper compensation could be a challenge.
Surveying the market
The best-case scenario for the Eagles is that a competition for Wentz's services develops. A number of teams, including the Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, San Francisco 49ers, New England Patriots, Washington Football Team, Chicago Bears and New York Jets, all reportedly inquired about Stafford. There is no shortage of teams looking to shake things up at QB.
Wentz, though, is obviously not as hot a commodity as Stafford after finishing 34th in completion percentage (57.4%) and first in interceptions (15) and sacks (50) in 2020.
Timing is an issue here as well. If the Eagles are to trade Wentz, they're highly incentivized to do so before the third day of the league year -- currently slated for March 19 -- before his $22 million base salary for 2022 becomes fully guaranteed and his 2021 roster bonus of $10 million is paid out.
Some QB-needy teams will want to wait to see how April's draft plays out before going the veteran route, inevitably shrinking Wentz's market.
All roads lead to Indy?
The most relevant detail of the Stafford trade from Philadelphia's perspective is where he landed -- or, more specifically, where he did not land.
The Colts have long been viewed as the most logical destination for Wentz given the presence of coach Frank Reich, who was the Eagles' offensive coordinator when Wentz was at his best and helped him to a near MVP season in 2017.
Wentz's former quarterbacks coach, Press Taylor, recently joined the Colts' staff as well, putting two of the coaches Wentz trusts the most -- Reich and Taylor -- in one place. It feels like a safe bet Wentz would do his part to help facilitate a trade there should a split with the Eagles become inevitable.
It is yet to be seen how hard the Colts might pursue him, but the longer the Colts are in the market for a new quarterback, the better from the Eagles' standpoint.