How do we know that the NFL playoff picture is heating up? Because we had our first three eliminations. The Cleveland Browns' 11th loss in as many games officially closed the door on their minuscule chance of reaching the postseason, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. The San Francisco 49ers (1-10) and New York Giants (2-9) also have run out of mathematical options, per NFL Research.
The NFL's other 29 teams remain alive, some in better shape than others. As always, we’ll take a closer look at the top candidates below. The following 12 teams would make the playoffs if the season ended Monday night.
AFC
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-2)
Squeaking by the Green Bay Packers on Sunday night allowed the Steelers to keep alive their hopes of clinching home-field advantage for the playoffs. In the meantime, they could seal the AFC North as early as next week with a victory over the Bengals combined with losses by the Ravens on Monday night to the Texans and the following week against the Lions. Sunday’s results changed the AFC tiebreaker and allowed the Steelers to leapfrog the Patriots even though both teams won. The Steelers now own the tiebreaker based on a better record against common opponents.
2. New England Patriots (9-2)
Sunday's victory over the Dolphins was the Patriots' seventh in a row and maintained a three-game lead in the AFC East with five to play. They could all but lock up the division with a victory next week at the Bills, the first of three consecutive road games. Worth noting: The Patriots are 5-0 on the road this season and 4-2 at home.
3. Tennessee Titans (7-4)
The Titans gained a game on the Jaguars in the AFC South, courtesy of a pair of games decided late. The Titans edged the Colts with a DeMarco Murray touchdown with 5 minutes, 59 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. A few hours later, in Arizona, the Jaguars lost on a 57-yard field goal with one second remaining. That's all it took for the Titans to leapfrog into the AFC South lead, thanks to the head-to-head tiebreaker earned in Week 2.
4. Kansas City Chiefs (6-5)
Everyone wants the Chiefs to bench quarterback Alex Smith and promote rookie Patrick Mahomes II, and maybe they will. But the decision is complicated by the fact that, despite Smith's struggles and a 1-5 slump in their past six games, the Chiefs still lead the weak AFC West. Their advantage is down to one game over the Chargers, so perhaps it's now or never with Mahomes. Suddenly, a Week 15 game against the Chargers is looming with added importance.
5. Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4)
The end of a four-game winning streak was enough to drop the Jaguars into second place in the AFC South. But they've got a chance to rebound with three consecutive games at home, a huge advantage in the playoff push. It starts with a game against the Colts. If the Jaguars really are going to make their first playoff field in 10 years, now is the time to show us.
6. Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
Incredible as it might be, given their early-season injury woes and a 1-4 slump, the Ravens have managed to put themselves into realistic playoff contention. Their victory Monday night over the Houston Texans lifted them into a tie with the Bills, over whom they own the conference tiebreaker at the moment. (The Ravens are 5-3 in the conference, while the Bills are 4-3.)
In the hunt: Buffalo Bills (6-5), Cincinnati Bengals (5-6), Los Angeles Chargers (5-6), Oakland Raiders (5-6).
NFC
1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
The Eagles' romp over the Bears made them the league's first team with double-digit wins this season. They have a five-game lead in the NFC East, meaning they can clinch the division as early as next week. But if there's any vulnerable spot on the Eagles' remaining schedule, it's the next two weeks: consecutive West Coast games at the Seahawks and Rams. And there is more than one team poised to leapfrog them in the top-heavy NFC.
2. Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
Week 12 put the Vikings in commanding position for the NFC North title: a three-game lead with five left to play. They further benefited from the Saints' loss to the Rams, putting what amounts to a two-game lead over both teams for the No. 2 spot if tied with either. Those tiebreakers are crucial because, like the Eagles, the Vikings are entering the most vulnerable portion of their schedule in Weeks 13-14; they're facing consecutive road games at Atlanta and Carolina.
3. Los Angeles Rams (8-3)
At a moment when some thought they were about to fall back to the pack, the Rams grabbed a key tiebreaker advantage in defeating the Saints. They also maintained a one-game lead over the Seahawks, who faced a far easier opponent in the 49ers. If everything holds, the Week 15 game at Seattle could determine the NFC West title.
4. New Orleans Saints (8-3)
The Saints held on to the NFC South lead despite the loss to the Rams, because of their head-to-head tiebreaker over the Panthers earned in Week 3. But they have no more breathing room as they head into a Week 13 showdown with the Panthers. A loss would drop them into second place in the division, eliminating the first tiebreaker and putting a premium on the second (division record); a Panthers win would give Carolina a third division victory compared to the Saints' two.
5. Carolina Panthers (8-3)
A four-game winning streak has put the Panthers at the brink of claiming the NFC South lead. It won't be easy, though. Even if they win what will be a bruising game at the Superdome, they'll return home to host the Vikings. Consider it a two-week gauntlet that will determine just how good the Panthers are.
6. Atlanta Falcons (7-4)
The Falcons are doing their part to keep alive everyone's dream of three NFC South teams in the playoffs. They've earned head-to-head tiebreakers with each of the two primary challengers, Seattle and Detroit, and really can't be ruled out for the division title. They've got two games remaining against the Saints and then host the Panthers in Week 17.
In the hunt: Seattle Seahawks (7-4), Detroit Lions (6-5)