A fairly significant event in our world occurred Monday night at FedEx Field.
No, it was not the diminishing forecasts of the Washington Redskins’ playoff push. (That's covered over in ESPN's playoff picture post.)
It was the Carolina Panthers’ sixth win of the season, one that produced a four-spot swing in the 2017 NFL draft order. Had they lost to the Redskins, the Panthers would be projected at No. 7 with two weeks remaining in the season. Their 26-15 victory pushed them out of the top 10, to No. 11.
A reminder: This order is a projection using ESPN's Football Power Index, a metric that takes into account record and tiebreakers (reverse order of strength of schedule), but also incorporates team quality and strength of future opponents. It is not a snapshot of the draft order if the season ended today.
Record: 0-14
FPI odds of top pick: 84.5 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 100 percent
Comment: The Browns are limping to the finish line in a way that inspires every expectation of an 0-16 season. They've scored 13 points or fewer in six consecutive games and they've also lost each of those games by at least 13 points. They're 4-27 in December games dating back to 2010, and the only teams standing between them and a winless season are the Chargers (5-9) and Steelers (9-5).
2. Record: 1-13
FPI odds of top pick: 15.4 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 100 percent
Comment: This proud franchise has been 1-13 on two other occasions in its history, in 1978 and 1979. They finished up 1-1 in each of those seasons to end up with 2-14 records. That means the 49ers have the chance to set a franchise record for fewest wins and lowest winning percentage in team history. They might blow it with a victory Saturday at the nearly-as-hapless Rams, but they'll contest their Week 17 game only if the Seahawks rest their starters.
3. Record: 2-12
FPI odds of top pick: 0.1 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 98 percent
Comment: The Jaguars' tiebreaker against the 49ers, should they lose out and the 49ers win a game over the next two weeks, doesn't look good. So, barring an unlikely turn of events, the only movement the Jaguars can expect is downward if they do something silly and start winning games under interim coach Doug Marrone. If they do, it will come in a spoiler role. The Jaguars play at the Titans on Saturday and travel to the Colts in Week 17 -- two teams in the AFC South playoff race.
4. Record: 3-11
FPI odds of top pick: 0.0 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 90.5 percent
Comment: The Bears have all but cemented themselves in the top 5 for the first time since 2005 when they drafted Texas running back Cedric Benson. They host the Redskins this week at Soldier Field, where they are 3-4 this season. They haven't won on the road in 2016, which doesn't bode well for their Week 17 game at Minnesota.
5. Record: 4-10
FPI odds of top pick: 0.0 percent
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 57.1 percent
Comment: Since the start of Week 8, the only teams the Jets have defeated are the Browns (0-14) and the 49ers (1-13). It doesn't look great for them in Week 16 at the Patriots, but even if they lose out and finish 4-12, they'll need some help to move up any further in the draft than No. 5.
6. Tennessee Titans (via Los Angeles Rams)
Record: 4-10
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 54.1 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 100 percent
Comment: The good news is that the Titans are a lock to get a top-10 pick out of the Rams as return in the Jared Goff trade. The bad news is that the No. 6 spot is sitting precariously as the Rams prepare to host the 49ers in Week 16. The Titans will be watching that game closely. At the moment, their own first-round pick is projected to fall at No. 22 -- subject to change based on whether they make the playoffs.
7. Record: 5-9
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 0.1 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 75.1 percent
Comment: Trouble looms for the Chargers, and we're not talking about their pending departure from San Diego. Their Week 16 opponent is the Browns, a team better equipped than any other to provide the Chargers with a sixth victory. That might be all it takes to drop them out of the top 10, although a Week 17 game against the Chiefs could provide late salvation.
8. Cleveland Browns (via Philadelphia Eagles)
Record: 5-9
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 0.1 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 75 percent
Comment: The odds look good for the Browns to have a pair of top-10 picks in 2017. This one is courtesy of the Carson Wentz trade, and the Eagles' struggles keep pushing it up the board. But Philadelphia shouldn't feel too bad. The pick they acquired from the Vikings in exchange for Sam Bradford is currently projected at No. 14.
9. Record: 5-8-1
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 0.2 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 77.1 percent
Comment: While one of the 2015 NFC Championship Game participants fell out of the top 10 this week, the Cardinals kept their spot by losing the fourth of their past five games. Their streak of three consecutive winning seasons is over, and they're a decent bet for their sixth top-10 pick in the past 13 years.
10. Record: 5-8-1
FPI odds of top-5 pick: 0.1 percent
FPI odds of top-10 pick: 59.7 percent
Comment: The Bengals are assured of their first losing season since 2010, and their remaining schedule provides a promising template for a top-10 pick. They're at the Texans (8-6) in Week 16 and host the Ravens (8-6) in Week 17, both of which are fighting for playoff position.