Cowboys reporter Todd Archer and Packers reporter Rob Demovsky take an in-depth look at Sunday’s game between Dallas and Green Bay at Lambeau Field.
The series has been lopsided recently, with the Packers winning the past four meetings in Green Bay. This season's contest pairs the Cowboys' top rushing offense against the Packers' top run defense.
DALLAS COWBOYS
Record: 4-1
First, NFC East
The Cowboys' past two trips to Lambeau Field have been miserable for different reasons.
In 2014, they felt like the divisional round playoff game was ripped from their clutches when Dez Bryant’s catch was overturned. In 2015, they failed to reach 100 yards passing in a 28-7 loss that was as hapless as the offense had been all that season.
They return to Lambeau Field on Sunday, however, feeling confident with the NFL’s best rushing offense and a rookie quarterback in Dak Prescott who has yet to have a pass intercepted in 155 attempts.
But the ghosts of Lambeau are real. The Cowboys have lost four in a row in Green Bay.
Only four Cowboys set to play on Sunday have experienced a win there.
“They have good players and they have good coaches, and typically, they play well at Lambeau -- but they also play well in a lot of places, so I think that’s where it starts,” Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said. “Certainly, it’s a challenging place from an environment, crowd noise and everything else that comes with playing on the road. In a lot of cases, they play up there where the conditions, the weather conditions, can be challenging for an opposing team coming in. I think it goes back to how good their team has been, and the biggest thing we have to do is focus on getting our team ready for a challenge this week. They’re a good team, there’s no question about that.”
COWBOYS' X FACTOR
The Packers’ pass rush is among the best in the league, with Clay Matthews, Julius Peppers and now Nick Perry, who leads the defense with 4.5 sacks. But the Cowboys have allowed just seven sacks this season, with four coming in one game, against the Washington Redskins; the biggest reason why is not just the protection, but the ability of Cole Beasley to win early on routes to allow Prescott to get rid of the ball quickly. Beasley leads the Cowboys with 27 catches for 332 yards. Eighteen of his catches have gone for first downs. He is a mismatch player, and the Packers' uncertainty in the slot will give the Cowboys an advantage. If the Packers want to devote more attention to Beasley, then the Cowboys will need Terrance Williams or Brice Butler to win outside.
WHY THE COWBOYS WILL WIN
The Cowboys fear no defense with how they are running the ball. That’s how they felt in 2014, when DeMarco Murray ran for 1,845 yards. A year ago at Lambeau, they ran for 171 yards against the Packers, and that was with a miserable passing game. Ezekiel Elliott leads the NFL in rushing, and the Cowboys are the best third-down team in the NFL (50 percent). They also have converted in the red zone. The best teams run the ball into the end zone, and the Cowboys have 11 rushing touchdowns, which is the second most in franchise history through five games. “This is a physical game, so I feel like the most physical team wins the game,” Elliott said.
WHY THE COWBOYS WILL LOSE
At some point, Prescott has to look human, or at least like a rookie, right? Lambeau Field is a difficult place to play, even if Prescott has gotten off to a 2-0 start on the road. The Packers’ run defense is the best in the NFL. If they can contain Elliott, then the pressure will be on Prescott to make plays through the air. If there is one thing Prescott has not shown yet -- and you can’t say he won’t do it -- is the ability to push the ball down the field. And Prescott could be without Bryant for a third straight game. In Week 4 at San Francisco, the quarterback was able to lead the Cowboys back from a 14-0 deficit. But the Packers are not the Niners, and this game is at Lambeau Field, where the Cowboys have lost four straight.
COWBOYS PREDICTION
During their four-game winning streak, the Cowboys are playing to their strengths: relying on the run game to set the tone, passing efficiently and playing well enough to keep the opposition out of the end zone. Perhaps the Cowboys are getting the Packers at the right time, with the way Aaron Rodgers is struggling. But perhaps Rodgers will enjoy seeing the Cowboys. He has five touchdown passes, with no interceptions, and has completed 65 percent of his passes in the past two games against them. -- Packers 27, Cowboys 23.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
Record: 3-1
Second, NFC North
Don’t believe in the Packers' NFL-leading run defense just yet? That’s understandable, given the breaks they’ve gotten in the first four games: Jacksonville didn’t have Chris Ivory; Adrian Peterson couldn’t finish the game in Minnesota; Detroit didn’t have Ameer Abdullah; and the Giants didn’t have Rashad Jennings.
Yes, the Packers have allowed just 42.8 yards rushing per game, but they haven’t faced anyone like Elliott yet. It will be strength against strength: Green Bay’s No. 1-ranked run defense against Dallas' top-ranked run game.
“People are going to challenge your strengths,” Packers coach Mike McCarthy said this week. “I mean, that’s a strength of ours right now that we’ve exhibited the first four weeks, and we have the No. 1 rushing offense in the league coming to town. So it’s going to be part of the game that we’re all looking forward to.”
PACKERS' X FACTOR
The Packers have one of the most productive pass rushes in the league so far this season. They rank fourth in sacks per opponent dropback, getting home 8.6 percent of the time. And it’s not all because of Matthews or Peppers -- their big-name pass-rushers. Neither leads the team in sacks. That belongs to Perry, the former first-round pick who has spent most of his career battling injuries. He is finally healthy and has 4.5 sacks. After four games, he already has set a single-season career high for sacks. “It’s more important to focus on -- if Nick continues to play that way, it better serves the defense,” Packers linebackers coach Winston Moss said. “Clay is better off when [Perry’s] out there trying to make all the plays he can make, given the opportunities he’s given.”
WHY THE PACKERS WILL WIN
At some point, Rodgers and the passing game will hit their stride. Maybe it’s this week against a Dallas defense that Rodgers has shredded in the past. He has never thrown an interception against the Cowboys in six career games, including playoffs, and has eight touchdowns combined in his past three games against them. Given Rodgers' accuracy issues and timing with his receivers this season -- he ranks last among all qualified quarterbacks in completion percentage (56.1 percent) -- there’s certainly no guarantee he will bust out this week; but it’s also entirely possible. “We watch the tape; we don't really look at the numbers as much as other people, and he's just an outstanding player,” Garrett said of Rodgers. “They have so many weapons on offense, and they do such a good job of putting those guys in position to have success. So we fully recognize the challenge that he and the Packers' offense presents.”
WHY THE PACKERS WILL LOSE
If this turns into a game played on the ground, the Packers could be in trouble. Not only do the Cowboys bring in the most dominant running game in the league powered by perhaps the best offensive line in football, but the Packers have all kinds of questions about their running game. Eddie Lacy couldn’t finish Sunday’s game against the New York Giants because of an ankle injury, and his backup has been worse than terrible. James Starks has averaged just 1.8 yards per carry on 24 attempts this season. Lacy was on track for his second straight 100-yard game before he got hurt in the third quarter last week, and Starks managed just 33 yards on 12 carries. McCarthy called it Lacy’s “best game this year” but added that he has “no concerns about James” if the Packers have to go with Starks.
PACKERS PREDICTION
It would be unrealistic to expect the Packers’ run defense to put up the same kinds of numbers against Elliott and the Cowboys that it has through four games. Any reasonable success on the ground will make things far easier for Prescott. Given how off-kilter the Packers’ passing game is, if the Cowboys can control the time of possession battle, it could be an unproductive day for Green Bay. -- Cowboys 28, Packers 24.