You saw ESPN Insider's annual NFL QB Tiers project, right? Take another look at the players atop the list, as voted on by a cross section of general managers, coaches and personnel people.
You'll see that eight of the top 11 quarterbacks are at least 32 years old and, as a group, they average 35.4 years. That's nearly 10 years older than the average age of the rest of the NFL, a fact sure to set off a new round of hand-wringing about the future of the most important position in sports.
I'd worry less about aging superstars, however, and more about a trend that connects the three sub-30 quarterbacks among that top 11. Cam Newton (27), Russell Wilson (27) and Andrew Luck (26) all get hit a lot -- and at much higher rates than most of today's 30-somethings when they were in their mid-20s.
So it's fair to ask: Can the NFL's best young quarterbacks make it to the advanced stage that Tom Brady (39), Carson Palmer (36), Tony Romo (36), Eli Manning (35) and others have reached? And if they can't, will the NFL have enough talented young quarterbacks at that point to take their places?
No qualified quarterback has been hit on more dropbacks, either in the pocket or while on the run, than Newton since ESPN Stats & Information began tracking contact rate in 2006. Newton has absorbed contact on 23.6 percent of his dropbacks since entering the NFL in 2011, as compared to, say, 4.5 percent for Peyton Manning and 7.6 percent for Drew Brees over the same period.
(Contact rate tracks the number of plays in which a quarterback is hit but doesn't account for multiple hits on one play.)
Last season, as the chart shows, Tyrod Taylor (age 27) led the NFL in contact rate (22.8 percent), followed by Wilson and Newton. Among the other most frequently hit quarterbacks were Luck, Teddy Bridgewater (23) and Marcus Mariota (22).
Newton, Wilson and Luck are strong and highly conditioned athletes, but it's difficult to envision them extending their prime to their late 30s while absorbing hits at current rates.
"I think quarterbacks learn that over time," said New York Giants coach Ben McAdoo, who has spent the past two seasons shepherding Eli Manning into his mid-30s. "It takes time. It's hard to throw them into the fire right away and expect them to be that quick. The game has to slow down for them to a certain degree. It's a fast game and everyone on defense can run now, even the 300-pounders. They have to learn that."
Of that, there is no doubt. And to be fair, the quarterback can't control some of what causes these hits, from scheme to offensive line talent. But it's worth noting that Eli Manning, for instance, was getting hit on 5.7 percent of his throws in 2006, when he was 25. Brady, at 29, was hit at a rate of 8.1 percent. Brees, then 26, was hit 4.9 percent of the time. Peyton Manning, who was 30 then and went on to play until he was 39, was hit on only 3.0 percent of his dropbacks.
The only player who matched the contact frequency of Newton and Wilson that season was Michael Vick, whose career as a full-time starter sputtered in his early 30s even after missing two full seasons while serving a prison sentence.
The good news is that Newton and Wilson already have demonstrated better passing skills than Vick ever did. And in Newton's case, at least, the contact rate has dropped slowly, from a high of 25.4 percent in his second season to a career-low 21.7 in 2015.
Wilson, on the other hand, is going the wrong way. His contact rate increased from 18.4 percent in his rookie season to a career-high 21.9 in 2015.
Some of the reasons are obvious, of course. No quarterbacks have run more than Newton (473 carries) and Wilson (411) since the start of the 2012 season. Luck ranks No. 7 on that list with 222 carries.
But equally as important is the time that young quarterbacks typically take to throw the ball, especially those who want to capitalize on their mobility.
Take a look at the chart. In 2015, the average time between the snap and throw in the NFL was 2.48 seconds. Taylor took the most time, with an average of 2.82 seconds, followed by Bridgewater at 2.81 seconds. Wilson and Luck tied for No. 4 at 2.67 seconds, while Newton was No. 7 at 2.61 seconds.
Generally speaking, it's assumed that young quarterbacks run more judiciously as they age. But to extend their careers into Brady, Brees and Manning territory, today's crop also will need to throw more quickly. McAdoo's comments reflect an NFL consensus that the transition is natural and reasonable to expect.
After all, Newton has said he takes harder hits in the pocket than in the open field. Wilson, meanwhile, has spent the offseason shedding weight he previously gained to absorb hits better, believing improved quickness will trump sturdiness. And after missing nine games last season because of a lacerated kidney, Luck said last month that he's working on "situational awareness and getting rid of the ball quicker" to avoid future injuries.
In reality, we're entering a new paradigm of NFL play. No one can say for sure if these products of the spread/run option era can transition to more traditional pocket passing, or if the supply model must change. If today's best young quarterbacks are worn down by heavy early contact, and if quarterbacks tend to get better with age, how many high-level quarterbacks will the NFL have 10 years from now?
It should be noted that we already have a handful of young(er) quarterbacks who naturally release the ball quickly and avoid contact, most notably Derek Carr (2.44 seconds before the throw for a 6.9 percent contact rate). And there is precedent for player improvement in this area; Ben Roethlisberger has cut his contact rate from an average of 12.2 percent from 2006 to 2013 to 5.7 percent last season. (See the video for more.)
It's no big deal, though. All we're talking about here is the future of the position. Carry on.