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For all the NFL's recent personnel dramatics, from the stunning dismantling of the Philadelphia Eagles to Ndamukong Suh's decision to move to Miami to the ongoing soap opera starring Adrian Peterson, the most important takeaway has been a clear expression of the depressing state of the quarterback position.
While Suh was preparing to accept a $114 million contract from the Dolphins, the Cleveland Browns were cleaning up after a bidding war for -- yes -- Josh McCown's services. After they acquired running back LeSean McCoy, whose new contract will pay him $16 million in 2015, the Buffalo Bills actually gave up a draft choice to secure Matt Cassel. With free agent Brian Hoyer reportedly close to signing with the Houston Texans, soon Jake Locker (!) will be the most attractive name available on the market.
The NFL's quarterback shortage is no secret, but this year's scramble originates from morbid fear. Teams are fighting over backup-quality starters because the 2015 draft class is one of the weakest in recent memory. No one -- save the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who own the No. 1 overall pick -- wants to enter the draft hoping to elevate its quarterback depth chart, much less find a starter.
I contacted ESPN's Steve Muench, who spends the year scouting college prospects for Scouts Inc., to get a better understanding of this class. To be clear, the drop-off is steep after Florida State's Jameis Winston and Oregon's Marcus Mariota. No one else has a grade higher than the fourth round. "This is a bad, bad class," Muench said.
Because the position is so overvalued, of course, we can expect some of those fourth-round talents to rise into the second and third rounds. In recent history, that's the cutoff for finding a decent NFL quarterback in the draft.
As the chart shows, it has been 10 years since a quarterback drafted in the fourth round or lower has gone on to start as many as 20 games. The middle class of quarterbacks -- your Andy Daltons, Colin Kaepernicks, Mike Glennons and others -- are now going to be off the board no later than the third round, and probably before.
So who will push into that group? (Full disclosure: We collaborated on a similar exercise last year.) Muench suggested three prospects for this year, with a big qualifier: None measure up even to the incomparable Jimmy Garoppolo -- the 2014 sleeper whom the New England Patriots drafted with the No. 62 overall pick. Here they are, ranked by their Scouts Inc. grades, with Muench's extended thoughts:
School: Colorado State
Muench: "He's got a good build at 6-foot-2 and 213 pounds, and he's got bigger hands (10 inches), which really helps him get a good grip and spin the ball. When you watch his tape, you see good pocket mobility, more than enough arm strength with some streak throwing. But when he's in rhythm, he's accurate. He's got to work on how he handles pressure and be better at diagnosing pre-snap reads, but in the end he gets the job done a lot of the time. You look at his game last year against Boston College, and he throws two interceptions in the first quarter of the game. He comes back in the second half, makes better decisions, gets in a rhythm, and throws a touchdown to win it in the end. That's Garrett Grayson in a nutshell."
School: Baylor
Muench: "He's a hot name for obvious reasons. He had those stats at Baylor, especially throwing for 510 yards against TCU. He's a leader in the locker room. From everything we've heard, you're going to be hard-pressed to find a guy you want in your locker room more than him, and that's really important for a guy coming out. You either have that or you don't. Most people know the other sides. He has to adjust to a pro-style offense after what he played in at Baylor, the way he reads the field. His decision making has to speed up, and he has to develop the footwork dropping from under center. So we see him as more of a project than some people might realize. He has great intangibles, is a great leader with slightly above-average arm strength, but I'm not sure he can drive the ball in certain situations. He's a good athlete, but not a great one. He'll have big issues getting his footwork down, and he has a lot to learn about playing in the NFL."
School: UCLA
Muench: "He's a fascinating prospect. He's not quite Logan Thomas, who was the workout star last year with outrageous height-weight-speed, but he's that guy this year. He's got that 36-inch vertical, those 10 1/2-inch hands, the 4.6 speed. From a physical standpoint, he's everything you would want. And he can be very accurate when the first read is there. The concern with him is if you take away that first read, as NFL defenses do, how good is he going to be? How effective is he going to be checking down and finding the next guy? For whatever reason, he kind of regressed at the end of the season. His last two games, he struggled, and then he didn't go to the Senior Bowl. He ended his career about as poorly as you can heading into the draft evaluation season. But he did throw well at the combine. We've all seen teams reach for a guy like this. Maybe they learned from the Jake Lockers or the EJ Manuels, but he'll be intriguing to teams in the same way."
The next grouping, based on Scouts Inc.'s evaluations, includes Oregon State's Sean Mannion, East Carolina's Shane Carden, and Southeast Louisiana State's Bryan Bennett. It wouldn't be a surprise to see one of them move close to the fourth-round barrier as well. But the NFL has already spoken, in its own way. There is little expectation that a rookie not named Winston or Mariota will impact the league in 2015.