Another in an Inside Slant series on innovation in and around the NFL. For all Inside Slant posts, follow this link.
Early in the fourth quarter Monday at Lambeau Field, Jordy Nelson sprinted from the Green Bay Packers' 40-yard line to the Atlanta Falcons' 37. The Packers' receiver cut toward the middle of the field on a post route, caught Aaron Rodgers' pass at the 12 and turned upfield again for a 60-yard touchdown.
In almost real time, ESPN's production truck had received multiple data points about the play, from Nelson's speed (in miles per hour), to the precise yardage he ran, to the distance between him and the defenders who were trying to cover him. During the ensuing replay, television viewers saw that Nelson actually ran 65.2 yards to complete the route and score.
That information is a beta version of sorts for the NFL's "Next Gen Stats" project, one that began quietly this season but could expand as early as 2015. The ultimate goal is to provide not only broadcasters but also in-stadium fans with a new level of understanding about what's happening in front of them. Eventually, teams could have access to data that would help them monitor the health, workload and conditioning of players during games, a similar stream to what many already receive in practice.
"The key thing here is that sports is going to move in the same direction that many industries already have," said Jill Stelfox, vice president/general manager of Zebra Technologies, the NFL's partner in this project. "At some point, there is going to be a standard set of data that is collected and be available for people to use that will be the fundamental starting point of how you analyze your players and team."
The process relies on RFID (Radio Frequency Identification Signals) technology, which the automotive industry uses to track efficiency on the assembly line. The NFL partnered with Zebra this summer to insert a pair of GPS-like chips into the shoulder pads of every player. This year, 17 stadiums are outfitted with 20 receivers that collect RFID signals from the chips. (Full list here.) Zebra then ships selected data from an in-stadium server to the game's broadcasting truck for possible use.
As early as next season, the information could be available to fans at the game via scoreboard replay or, eventually, a handheld/in-seat device. Meanwhile, the NFL's competition committee is sorting through logistics and best practices of providing the raw data to teams as well. (As we discussed this spring, many of the league's teams already have signed on with companies that provide data tracking during practice.)
At the moment, I'm not sure how much value there is for a fan in knowing that Jordy Nelson ran 65.2 yards to catch a 60-yard pass, or that the Falcons' Roddy White was running 20.06 mph to get open while the defensive back who was trying to cover him was topping out at 18.74 mph.
But as the program evolves, Stelfox said, more information will be available and in different ways. Customized settings on a handheld device could show fans which players are getting tired, based on slower speeds or velocity, or identify an offensive line that is getting stronger as the game continues. There are also fantasy implications; knowing the speed of receivers relative to defensive backs could help inform lineup decisions. And if enough data is available, the practice of drafting entire defenses and special teams could be discarded in favor of individual player selections.
Ultimately, though, I'm guessing the best value here will be for teams to capitalize on technology already in use by some 400 sports leagues around the world. In Australian rugby games, for example, coaches routinely consult a live data stream during games to help make substitution decisions. NFL coaches could receive raw yardage totals which, compared to a season average, could help determine more precisely who is tired and who is nearing a danger zone for injury.
"These are products that are available and have been available for a while," Stelfox said. "In sports, it's new, so you take it slowly."
As with anything, there are downsides and potential unintended consequences. I spoke recently with a prominent player who wondered if teams would make new and possibly negative evaluations of player performance based on information it never before had. If a player's average speed drops in Week 5 or during a random Thursday practice, will they have been judged to have dogged it? If a defender's force and velocity while tackling falls during a season, will the information be used in contract negotiations as a sign of diminished skills?
The NFL is a few years away from that point. Even then, smart teams will take advantage. Skepticism and tradition will hold others back, and we'll see just how much it matters.