Here’s a look at the Super Bowl prospects of the New Orleans Saints, who finished the season 7-9:
Saints Super Bowl barometer: Middle of the pack
Assessing the foundation: New Orleans has the most important pieces in place -- a Super Bowl-caliber coach and quarterback in Sean Payton and Drew Brees, who already won one together in 2010. But the past seven years, including three straight 7-9 seasons, have proven that’s not enough. The Saints have made some poor spending decisions in free agency and have missed on too many draft choices, while their defense has been historically bad in some recent seasons, including 2012, 2014 and 2015.
The good news? Payton and general manager Mickey Loomis seem to have identified several of the biggest deficiencies that have been holding them back. They have spent the past couple of years rebuilding everything from the locker room culture to the young talent base to the scouting department to the coaching staff to the defensive scheme. And the results have been promising so far. Everyone from players to coaches to management agree that they’re on the cusp of a playoff run. They lost seven games in 2016 by six points or less. And Brees played as well last season as he had in the past five years, flanked by an outstanding young receiving corps. It’s not crazy to think they could catch fire in 2017 like the similarly built Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers.
The bad news? Brees turned 38 in January and is heading into the final year of his contract. So the Saints are running out of time to get things right.
Judging the quarterback: Brees still ranks among the NFL’s elite for now. He led the league with 5,208 yards in 2016, ranked second with a completion percentage of 70.0, ranked third with 37 TD passes and ranked fifth with a passer rating of 101.7. He did throw 15 interceptions, though, and he fell short in the most important statistic of all: wins.
Brees is a driven competitor who seems determined to keep thriving into his 40s. So it’s realistic to believe he’ll give New Orleans a shot to win another Super Bowl for at least two or three more years. But the bigger question mark is whether the Saints might consider moving on sooner, especially if they find a quarterback they love in this year’s draft. Brees is under contract for only one more season, though he proved by signing a one-year extension last summer that he would rather stay in New Orleans than exploit the open market.
Eventually, the Saints will need to find an heir for Brees. Obviously they would much prefer to stumble into their own version of Dak Prescott in the middle rounds, rather than have to use a first-round pick -- or worse yet, trade up from the No. 11 pick. But all options will have to be considered from now on.
Realistic ways the Saints can improve their chances to contend for a Super Bowl:
Make defense more dynamic: The Saints took a step in the right direction under coordinator Dennis Allen in 2016, showing signs of becoming a middle-of-the-pack defense (which would qualify as a huge improvement). If they add a dynamic pass-rusher this offseason, along with a solid cornerback and linebacker, they could take an even bigger step in 2017. Again, I’ll use the 2016 Falcons as an example after rookie safety Keanu Neal and rookie linebacker Deion Jones made such a huge impact.
Stay prolific on offense: “Middle of the pack” is good enough on defense as long as the offense remains elite. That was the case for most of 2016, thanks largely to the breakout performance of rookie receiver Michael Thomas. The top priority on that side of the ball will be to keep shoring up the offensive line, where right guard Jahri Evans and right tackle Zach Strief won’t be around much longer.
Win the close ones: Payton and Brees talk all the time about how many games in the NFL come down to the last possession. Well, the Saints proved it in 2016, when they ranked second in the NFL with 12 one-score games (and finished 5-7 in them). And, boy oh boy, did they lose some of those games in spectacular fashion, including a blocked extra point returned for a two-point conversion among several other special teams gaffes.