RENTON, Wash. -- Swank homes in the distance along Lake Washington's shoreline provided a fitting backdrop for Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider during lunch in the team's cafeteria Sunday. The football picture has never been prettier in Seattle, but as with those waterfront dream homes, the Seahawks will require maintenance. A hefty bill coming due raises questions about sustainability for the defending Super Bowl champs, and they know it.
"The challenge when you do pay your quarterback, it definitely changes," Schneider said.
Quarterback Russell Wilson is earning $750,000 per year on the rookie contract he signed as a third-round draft choice in 2012. That is about 3.8 percent of the $20 million annual average he might command once he becomes eligible for a new deal after the 2014 season.
The current bargain price tag for Wilson has helped the Seahawks supplement their roster with luxury buys central to their success. What happens when that dynamic changes? Will the team ultimately need more from Wilson, and can he deliver? I posed those questions to Schneider and others in the organization in search of a blueprint for keeping open Seattle's championship window.
The collective bargaining agreement locks Wilson and other 2012 choices into team-friendly rookie deals at least through the upcoming season. Wilson is signed until March 2016, but an extension should be forthcoming next offseason. Wilson will be looking for long-term security. The Seahawks -- having already re-signed core players Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman and Doug Baldwin with time remaining on their deals -- are expected to take a similar route with Wilson.
Direct effect of Wilson's deal
Even with Wilson earning relatively little, the Seahawks subtracted several familiar performers from their roster this offseason. Receiver Golden Tate, tackle Breno Giacomini, defensive tackle Clinton McDonald, defensive ends Red Bryant and Chris Clemons, and cornerbacks Walter Thurmond and Brandon Browner no longer fit into Seattle's plans and/or budget. All landed elsewhere. The Seahawks ideally would have kept Tate, in particular, but some of the other departures had been anticipated for some time. Replacements are on the roster, mostly in the form of draft choices.
Defensive end Cliff Avril, whose inside bull rush in the Super Bowl enabled Malcolm Smith's pick-six off Peyton Manning, could be difficult to afford when his deal expires next offseason. Powerhouse back Marshawn Lynch, a holdout early in camp, has a $9 million salary-cap figure in 2015, when he will be 29. There is some thought that this could be his final year in Seattle. That was part of the thinking all along, as teams often are OK with getting three seasons from a significant extension.
Linebacker K.J. Wright will be the team's top free agent next to Avril. Looking further out, signing Wilson to a top-level contract could make it tougher to keep left tackle Russell Okung and middle linebacker Bobby Wagner, who are signed through the 2015 season.
Wilson has earned the respect of teammates through his play and preparation. Paying him top dollar should create no resentment, particularly after the team took care of Sherman, Thomas, Baldwin and Bennett this offseason.
Schneider's biggest concern
The Seahawks are in very good shape overall. They have depth on their roster and a proven system for drafting and developing players. Coach Pete Carroll's comfort level with younger players in key roles will remain crucial as the team emphasizes cheaper labor in some positions. So far this offseason, rookie tackle Justin Britt is looking like a viable replacement for Giacomini, to cite one example. But as specific needs arise, teams with high-priced QBs can face dangerous temptations.
"You have to be continually drafting players to step up in the next year," Schneider said. "What you have seen happen is teams draft specifically for need because of that, and when you start drafting purely for need is when you screw up."
Every failed draft choice can look like a reach for need in retrospect, but some examples are straightforward.
Before coming to Seattle, Schneider spent 1993-1996 and 2002-2009 with a Packers organization that won two Super Bowls and did a lot of things right as one of the most disciplined organizations in professional sports. But in 2001, when Green Bay was coming off a fourth-place finish in the old NFC Central, the Packers were desperate for a pass-rusher. They traded with Seattle in the first round to select Jamal Reynolds with the 10th pick. Reynolds never started a game. Dan Morgan -- who had 386 tackles in 59 career games -- went 11th in the same draft. The Seahawks took Steve Hutchinson -- who played 12 seasons in the NFL -- with the pick acquired from the Packers.
A year later, in 2002, the Packers paid a premium in free agency for veteran pass-rusher Joe Johnson in another move that backfired. The Packers' best pass-rusher wound up being Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, an undrafted free agent the team had brought to camp in 2000.
Must Wilson do more?
While speaking with 26 GMs, coordinators, coaches and other NFL insiders for our recent QB Tiers package, a veteran offensive assistant explained what it would take, in his estimation, for Wilson to ascend to the top tier. The answer stuck with me because of the assumption it made about the impact a new deal for Wilson would have on the roster.
"When they pay him and that defense goes to the middle of the pack and he starts throwing for 250-plus yards a game, then he is there," the coach said.
Seattle might be able to maintain a formidable defense with Sherman, Thomas and Bennett remaining in prominent roles. The Seahawks will continue to enjoy scheme continuity under Carroll even if defensive coordinator Dan Quinn becomes a head coach, as he very well could next offseason. Carroll and the personnel department have so far shown great ability to find and develop players for their scheme. But at the very least, it's unrealistic to expect Seattle to maintain a defense as historically great as the 2013 unit proved to be.
Seattle averaged 32.1 dropbacks per game on offense last season, the second-lowest figure in the league behind San Francisco (31.4). No one close to Carroll expects him to suddenly abandon his run-oriented offensive philosophy that focuses on protecting the football, but if the defense falls off a bit and Lynch eventually departs, there's a good chance Wilson will need to carry more of the load.
Can Wilson carry the offense consistently?
The word "carry" is too strong. Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Andrew Luck were the only QBs in the first tier in our survey. Evaluators think the first four have carried their teams somewhat consistently. They think Luck has done so over a shorter run and possesses all the tools required to do so annually.
Most evaluators think the other quarterbacks must be managed to a greater degree. Some question whether Wilson could function well enough without his defense and running game providing so much cover. Some remain unconvinced about Wilson's abilities as a pocket passer, even though he has 43 touchdown passes, 15 interceptions, a 103.6 passer rating and the NFL's sixth-ranked Total QBR score (70.0) from inside the pocket over the past two seasons. Only Manning, Colin Kaepernick, Brees, Rodgers and Brady rank higher in that category over the same span.
The fact that Kaepernick and Wilson are on that list -- and that Robert Griffin III had outstanding in-the-pocket numbers as a rookie in 2012 -- suggests that QBs known for making plays with their legs could have a harder time gaining recognition for the other things they do. Evaluators consistently question those QBs' abilities as traditional pocket passers. Should they? That is a discussion for another time.
"You cannot knock a guy for being in the style that we are asking him to be in," Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell said after a recent camp practice. "With that being said, Russell is still one of the most explosive quarterbacks throwing the ball down the field. His yards per attempt, the explosive plays, all those things are a huge part of our offense. He is still getting those plays."
People waiting to see whether Wilson can succeed while dropping straight back in the pocket play after play might be waiting forever, or at least until Carroll is gone.
Setting reasonable expectations
Seattle has not lost a game by more than seven points since Week 9 of the 2011 season, the longest streak in the league. That type of consistency is hard to maintain, but the Seahawks are in better position than most to avoid a significant drop-off.
Egos and competing interests tend to play leading roles when teams fail to maintain excellence over time. That happened in Seattle, before Carroll and Schneider arrived. The Seahawks' current leadership appears synchronized as effectively as any in the league.
Young, talented defensive leadership is in place with Sherman, Thomas and Chancellor. On offense, the Seahawks face lingering questions along their line. They probably must answer those questions more successfully in the future as their margin for error shrinks. That will be a theme across the board once their quarterback is earning roughly 25 times his current salary.