This is not a rip job on Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton. In polling a large cross-section of NFL coaches and executives, prevailing opinion says at least a dozen NFL teams would be better off with Dalton in their lineup. But the issue, in the face of the Bengals' looming contract extension negotiations with their QB, isn't whether Dalton is good enough to start. He is. The issue isn't whether the Bengals can be a playoff team with him. They already have been one.
The issue is what to do when a QB such as Dalton finishes his team-friendly rookie contract. The Bengals have been one-and-done in the playoffs for three years running despite the flexibility that comes with having a young, drafted quarterback earning $1.3 million per year under the rookie wage scale. What happens if Cincinnati pumps up Dalton's average to $15 million or more a year? The roster will become more difficult to maintain, and Dalton might not improve enough to overcome the difference.
The case against re-signing Dalton is not an easy one to make. Any coach or exec will tell you just how horrible it feels when your team lacks a viable starter. The dread becomes consuming. That partly explains why teams felt OK paying $18.1 million a year for Jay Cutler or $17.7 million a year for Matthew Stafford, even though neither QB had been exceptional or consistent before signing for those respective amounts.
These dynamics make the Bengals' QB outlook compelling as Dalton, a player without the raw abilities that made Cutler and Stafford first-round draft choices, enters the final season of the four-year rookie deal he signed as a second-round pick in 2011. The case against re-signing Dalton is philosophical, not personal. Is it practical? Will the Bengals or another team dare to turn the short-term advantages associated with cheap QB labor into a long-term edge by continually moving on from drafted middle-tier starters instead of paying them market value? They should, and here is why.
The beauty of cheap QB labor
Five of the NFL's eight division winners from last season featured QBs playing on rookie contracts negotiated under the current wage scale. The other three division winners lined up with Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers -- three of the Big Four QBs, along with Drew Brees. Those four warrant the fat salaries veteran starters are commanding these days, but paying others as though they're worth it heightens risk.
While cheap QB labor might not be a prerequisite for winning in the absence of an all-time great quarterback, recent cases have given teams reason to question whether paying top dollar for less-than-top QB play diminishes roster flexibility too much.
From 2011 to 2013, 15 quarterbacks outside of the Big Four combined for 31 seasons in which they earned at least $9 million on veteran contracts, and only four of those were playoff seasons. Those 15 QBs -- Matt Cassel, Cutler, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Joe Flacco, Kevin Kolb, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Matt Schaub, Stafford and Michael Vick -- generally have not enjoyed great team success while earning high salaries over that three-year span.
Eli Manning was a notable exception when his 2011 New York Giants won the Super Bowl, but that was a wild-card team that had trouble sustaining success in subsequent years. Last season, Ryan ranked 10th in Total QBR (61.1) for a team that finished 4-12 thanks to injuries and roster decay. What role did Ryan's high salary play? How did the salaries for those 14 other high-priced QBs affect things? Those questions are tough to answer, but we do know teams with cheaper QBs playing on rookie deals have had some success.
Six of the 12 NFL playoff teams from last season started lower-priced QBs signed under the rookie wage scale. Those six teams combined for a 6-5 postseason record, including a 4-3 mark against teams with higher-priced QBs on veteran contracts. Three of the final four teams standing in the NFC, including the eventual Super Bowl champions, enjoyed increased roster flexibility thanks to their lower-priced QBs.
That's hardly a definitive sample, but it's evidence worth considering.
Eleven of the 32 projected starters for 2014 are playing on rookie contracts, not counting players drafted in 2014. All but one of them, Sam Bradford, were drafted since the rookie wage scale went into effect. The list includes Dalton, EJ Manuel, Geno Smith, Jake Locker, Nick Foles, Russell Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Andrew Luck, Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III. Some of those QBs haven't done much yet, but at least they're not siphoning off significant resources that could be used other ways.
Eli Manning, Roethlisberger, Cutler, Ryan, Rivers and Stafford are all scheduled to count more than $15 million against their teams' salary caps in 2014 while playing on veteran contracts. NFL coaches and executives generally rank those players higher than they rank Dalton. If inflated QB contracts are at least partly responsible for holding back those teams, the effect could be greater for the Bengals if they pay Dalton similarly.
A terrifying reality
Overpaying a QB such as Dalton sounds better than going into a season with a starter weak enough to doom the season. AJ McCarron, the quarterback Cincinnati drafted in the fifth round this year, probably won't be ready anytime soon. Most coaches would rather pay too much for Dalton than suffer through the type of season Arizona endured in 2012 when Ryan Lindley and John Skelton were the Cardinals’ starters. Jacksonville has known that pain in recent seasons. Lots of capable people lost their jobs in both places.
To casually suggest the Bengals should part with Dalton isn't a solution. The team might have to select a viable QB early in the 2015 draft or otherwise acquire one. Time exists for the team to do its homework in case the price for Dalton becomes prohibitive, but this would not be an easy decision.
"With quarterbacks, a lot of it is about the opportunity cost," an NFC executive said. "It's not easy to switch out your quarterback. You have to find someone else you can win with."
Dalton set career highs last season in yards per pass attempt (7.3), touchdown passes (33), interceptions (20), passer rating (88.8) and Total QBR (55.8). The figures for yards per attempt, passer rating and Total QBR were right near the league averages for qualifying quarterbacks over the past three seasons. The QBR score ranked 46th out of 109 single-season figures for qualifying QBs since 2011.
The Bengals could do much worse than Dalton, in other words. And if he does progress as the team hopes he will in 2014, paying a higher price could make more sense.
Taking the plunge
The current labor system hasn't been in place long enough for teams to swap out one young, viable QB draft choice for another. I don't think we're going to see it happen anytime soon, if at all. Teams with GMs and head coaches under pressure to win in the short term fear the unknown. While the 2012 Seahawks unexpectedly replaced Matt Flynn with the freshly drafted Wilson when coach Pete Carroll was coming off consecutive 7-9 seasons, that move falls outside the paradigm because Flynn was not an established starter or a player Seattle had drafted.
More recently, the San Francisco 49ers were set up as well as any NFL team to at least consider such a move in the name of long-term roster management. With a consistently strong defense, first-rate offensive line, outstanding coaching and a deep pool of recent draft choices, the 49ers could have considered letting Colin Kaepernick play out his rookie deal while they drafted another low-cost alternative. Doing so could have turned their short-term advantage -- cheap QB labor via the rookie wage scale -- into a long-term one. But the risk would have been high, even for a team that has won more than 70 percent of its games with Kaepernick and predecessor Alex Smith.
The 49ers are 1-for-1 on that front unless you think the team would have been better off keeping Smith at his $8 million annual rate. Imagine if they had traded Kaepernick this offseason to a team such as Oakland for a package including the fifth overall pick in the 2014 draft. They could have maneuvered to get another QB either through the draft or by other means. It would have defied convention, but remember, this team has won 76 percent of its games since Jim Harbaugh took over, and the 49ers have done it with two starting QBs no one considered to be franchise players before Harbaugh had them.
Going that route might have been preferable to paying $19 million a season for Kaepernick unless you think he's a special player. Opinions in the league are not unanimous.
A team with stable ownership and an established head coach with a talented staff would be in prime position to consider plugging in drafted quarterbacks every three or four years while using leftover resources to build the roster. Philadelphia could be a candidate. New England would make sense if the team wasn't in such good hands at QB already.
"If they had an average QB, they might churn them," a GM from another team said of the Patriots, "but once you have an above-average one, it stops. If you have a guy that proves he is up to winning, no matter if he is not quite what you want, it is damn hard to move on."
The Bengals' options
The plan in Cincinnati will be to help Dalton by leaning harder on the running game. New offensive coordinator Hue Jackson has made that a priority. If Dalton takes a significant step forward, the Bengals will greatly improve their chances for postseason success, in which case Dalton could put himself in line for Cutler money. As things stand, one GM said he thought Dalton might command $14 million to $16 million a year.
"How much do you go beyond that threshold?" the GM asked.
That is a question the Bengals might have to answer, particularly if Dalton remains on his current course of incremental improvement. If they decide to pay Dalton in that upper tier, the reasons will be understandable. However, that won't necessarily make it the best strategic move.