The San Francisco 49ers had some options with quarterback Colin Kaepernick after watching him suffer three game-changing turnovers in the fourth quarter of their NFC Championship Game defeat this past season. They could have made him play out his rookie contract. They could have named him their franchise player next offseason and waited to see if another team would give up a couple of first-rounders for him.
Critics would have ripped them for taking chances at the most important position, but remember, during Jim Harbaugh's tenure, this team has won a higher percentage of its games with Alex Smith starting (.759) than it has won with Kaepernick in the lineup (.724).
Instead of playing it coy, the 49ers announced Tuesday that they had gone all-in with Kaepernick, signing him to a six-year deal that is expected to make him one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the game (update: the deal is not as lucrative as initial reports suggested, making this a very sensible deal from the team's standpoint).
Kaepernick's work ethic makes this an understandable bet for the 49ers, a bet worth making, in my view. There's a very good chance the 49ers will go deep in the playoffs and possibly even win the Super Bowl next season. The price for Kaepernick was only going to go up, most likely, particularly now that San Francisco has improved its weaponry at receiver.
My own feeling from watching the 49ers is that Kaepernick's performance fell off in 2013 largely because the team ran low on offensive weapons. I also feel as though Kaepernick needs to learn when to suppress the big-play mentality that made him an appealing alternative to Smith. The big plays are great, but a little restraint in the NFC title game would have gone a long way for the 49ers.
I've made a few trips and lots of calls around the league this offseason to poll NFL decision-makers on quarterbacks. Those efforts remain in progress (and a full post examining the rankings is forthcoming), but with Kaepernick reaching his big extension Tuesday, this is a good time to look at some of the preliminary findings.
What follows is a list of QBs in line for new deals, arranged based on preliminary voting among 15 decision-makers I've consulted so far. Note that players drafted in 2012 cannot rework their deals until after the 2014 season.
1. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts
Luck has won games for a team with relatively little defensive help and while playing in an offense that has not benefited from an effective running game. Luck has often been the team's best rusher, in fact. He becomes eligible for a new deal after this upcoming season is through.
2. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Wilson hasn't been asked to carry his team consistently. He has done it on occasion, and done it very well. But with only two years as a starter for a team with a dominant defense and running game, some of the comments I heard fell on the more conservative side. People want to see more, and again, Wilson is one of the passers who is ineligible to negotiate until after 2014.
3. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Newton's ranking in the eyes of those I've polled is in line with Kaepernick's, although the Panthers have time to make a decision on the former No. 1 overall pick after exercising the option in his rookie deal.
4. Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles
Passing for 27 touchdown passes with only two interceptions this past season caught people's attention enough to move Foles into this position, although it's obvious that some are giving him the benefit of the doubt with less than a full season under his belt as an NFL starting QB.
5. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs
Smith is solidly in the third tier, with most thinking he will remain there. He did become a more aggressive player late this past season, however, and the results were positive. Sustaining his late-season uptick will be hard now that the Chiefs will be facing the NFC West in the scheduling rotation.
6. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
Dalton is right there with Smith in the third tier, and it's fair to wonder how much upward mobility he has. The Bengals can negotiate a new deal with him at any time.
7. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
Quite a few people to whom I've spoken have said they would have ranked Griffin much higher before his injury. As with Luck and Wilson, he can't negotiate a new pact until after 2014.
8. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins
Tannehill played to mixed reviews, although some see upside and think his performance will spike with improved pass protection. He will be eligible to negotiate after the 2014 season.
9. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams
Some loved Bradford coming out of college and hold out hope for him to meet expectations, but he'll have to stay on the field, and he hasn't shown that ability yet.
10. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans
The Titans didn't pick up the option on Locker, which means that this is effectively a make-or-break campaign for him in 2014 with a new head coach prowling the sidelines. For players like Locker and Bradford, we're not saying that they're necessarily bad players, just that they haven't shown a consistent ability to stay on the field.