The Kansas City Chiefs could not beat Andrew Luck in the playoffs last season. They will have to overcome another strong-armed quarterback, Jay Cutler, to succeed in contract negotiations with their own starter, Alex Smith.
That is because the deal Cutler signed with the Chicago Bears in January set some financial guideposts on a course the Chiefs presumably do not want to follow too closely.
On the surface, this should be a straightforward negotiation for Kansas City. The Chiefs are credible when they say they value Smith. They traded two second-round choices to acquire him after all. Nothing I heard from coach Andy Reid or anyone else during a recent visit to Chiefs headquarters suggested the team was wavering.
Smith, having learned early in his career that money does not ensure professional happiness, is not the type to make unreasonable demands. Re-signing Smith was never particularly problematic during his career with the San Francisco 49ers -- not in 2011, when all parties initially figured a fresh start was in their best interests, and not in 2012, after the team investigated Peyton Manning's availability.
But the Cutler deal presents challenges for the Chiefs as they potentially pursue a contract extension with Smith.
Smith’s likely asking price
Smith and Cutler both have first-round draft pedigrees. Both know what it’s like to bounce from one offensive scheme to another with supporting casts of varying quality. Smith is 30. Cutler is 31. Both learned new systems under offensive-minded head coaches in 2013. If you look at their conventional stats over the past three seasons, Smith can make a case that he is worth Cutler money: $18.1 million a year with $22.5 million guaranteed at signing and another $31.5 million in conditional guarantees.
Smith can also point to a 30-9-1 starting record over that span, plus a playoff victory. Cutler is 22-14, with no playoff berths during that time.
Smith has completed a higher percentage of his passes over the same three-year period. He has missed fewer games. He has thrown more touchdown passes (53 for Smith, 51 for Cutler) with far fewer interceptions (17 for Smith, 33 for Cutler). His 92.5 passer rating beats the 85.1 mark for Cutler.
Smith’s three-game playoff résumé since 2011 includes nine touchdown passes, zero interceptions and a 108.6 passer rating, punctuated by a memorable victory over the New Orleans Saints that featured Smith’s 28-yard touchdown run and memorable winning TD pass to Vernon Davis. Smith also tossed four scoring passes in the Chiefs’ 45-44 wild-card defeat to Indianapolis last season. Cutler, meanwhile, has a 1-1 career postseason mark, with both appearances in 2010.
For all those reasons, Smith could reasonably ask for the $18.1 million per year Cutler commanded from the Bears, even though Cutler played out his deal. A salary-cap manager for another team figured Smith would ask for at least that much. He thought the team would be in the $12 million to $14.5 million range, and that $15 million to $16 million might get the deal done ultimately.
The agent and Eli Manning
Eli Manning’s contract with the New York Giants expires after the 2015 season. What does that have to do with Smith? Agent Tom Condon represents both players. Concessions made on the Smith deal could come into play when it’s time to revisit Manning’s deal, even though the situations are different. Agents must take into account these sort of big-picture considerations.
“I assume Tom will use this to set up a raise for Eli and use it for a benchmark for something,” an NFC executive suggested.
Chiefs general manager John Dorsey will try to avoid entering into a contract that hamstrings the team from a salary-cap standpoint. Kansas City will want a structure that allows it to reassess each offseason. The 49ers secured such flexibility in their deal with Colin Kaepernick, conceding a higher annual average ($19 million) for less money fully guaranteed at signing ($13 million).
Condon got $42 million guaranteed at signing for Matt Ryan last offseason. His QB client list also features the Manning brothers, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford and Sam Bradford.
Cutler’s contract, negotiated by agent Bus Cook, carried $22.5 million in money guaranteed at signing and another $31.5 million in injury-only guarantees. That deal represented a bigger bet than I would expect the Chiefs to make on Smith, whose winning percentage and traditional stats tell only part of the story.
Huge difference on third down
There are reasons Chicago should feel better about placing a larger bet on its quarterback.
Cutler takes far fewer sacks than Smith and has functioned at a much higher level on third down, helping to explain why Cutler has a higher Total QBR score over the past three seasons (57.0, compared to 52.3 for Smith, with 100 as the maximum, 50 as average and 65 the general cutoff for Pro Bowl-caliber play).
Their QBR figures are both right around 70 since 2011 when we remove sacks from the equation, but there are other significant differences. Smith has been significantly better than Cutler on first down, when opponents had to account for either Jamaal Charles in Kansas City or the diversified ground game San Francisco possessed when Smith was the 49ers’ starter. Smith has 22 touchdowns, four picks and 32 sacks on first down. Cutler has one fewer TD, eight additional INTs and two additional sacks. Not surprisingly, Smith’s 66.8 QBR score on first down dwarfs the 48.7 figure for Cutler.
Third down presents a tougher test for quarterbacks because opponents know a pass is coming. That is where Cutler has made his mark, not only relative to Smith but to the league at large. While Cutler and Smith have nearly identical TD-INT ratios on third down over the past three seasons, Cutler has taken only 24 third-down sacks, half the total for Smith. That is one reason Cutler ranks seventh in the league since 2011 in third-down QBR (69.6). Smith is 27th out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks at 33.7.
Last season, Cutler’s third-down QBR (89.7) ranked second in the league and was far better than the 48.4 figure for Smith. The fact that Cutler trailed only then-teammate Josh McCown (95.0) in third-down QBR suggests the Bears are onto something under coach Marc Trestman. At the very least, the Bears have the weaponry to maximize their investment in Cutler -- particularly on third down, when bigger targets such as Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery are appealing. It’s tough to say the same is true for the Chiefs.
Overall, Cutler has taken 27 fewer sacks than Smith since 2011 despite playing behind offensive lines that weren’t nearly as good. Cutler’s passes have also traveled 9.4 yards past the line of scrimmage on average, compared to 7.1 for Smith, suggesting a higher degree of difficulty. That 7.1 figure for Smith is the lowest in the NFL among 32 qualifying quarterbacks.
Closing thoughts
When Smith was with the 49ers, offensive coordinator Greg Roman described him as possessing a coach-like internal governor that enabled Smith to avoid risky decisions. A coordinator from another team studied Smith in detail and thought the 49ers were managing the game for him through a menu of plays and throws that weren’t very enterprising. Another defensive coach saw similar signs with Smith in Kansas City for much of last season, but his final six games, counting playoffs, seemed encouraging.
Reid and Chiefs offensive assistant Brad Childress said they thought Smith was becoming more comfortable in the offense and possibly more aggressive as a result. Smith threw 16 TD passes with only three INTs from the Chiefs’ 11th game forward, counting playoffs. He trailed only McCown, Peyton Manning, Kaepernick, Cutler and Philip Rivers in Total QBR (68.2) over that span. Facing Oakland, Indianapolis (twice), Washington and San Diego had to help. Those teams ranked between 21st and 28th in defensive EPA last season.
In 2014, Smith and the Chiefs face four rugged defenses from the NFC West. They have taken some hits on their offensive line and did not appear to upgrade significantly at wide receiver. For that reason, Smith might be wise to accept a deal sooner rather than later. Without a deal, Smith would be a candidate for the franchise tag next offseason, which could drive his price past $18.5 million.
Either way, Cutler’s deal awaits as a meaningful measuring stick. What puts the Chiefs in a bit of a bind is that Smith, while certainly justified in asking for Cutler money, probably won't be worth it in the end.