Quarterbacks drive the car in the NFL, but they need help. Supply them with insufficient horsepower and even the good ones will bog down to some degree.
We saw it last season when Eli Manning's offensive line fell apart. We saw it when Tom Brady seemingly at once lost all his key weaponry, and when Colin Kaepernick lost both Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree for stretches. Matt Ryan certainly missed Julio Jones. Even the eventual Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks hit some rough patches offensively when quarterback Russell Wilson lost both projected starting receivers, Percy Harvin and Sidney Rice.
A look ahead shows 10 notable wide receivers under age 35 entering contract seasons: Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, Crabtree, Jordy Nelson, Hakeem Nicks, Cecil Shorts, Torrey Smith, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Roddy White. Their teams must decide over the next nine months how much value each holds. Right now, Calvin Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Harvin, Mike Wallace, Dwayne Bowe and Vincent Jackson are the only NFL wide receivers earning more than $11 million per season, but they figure to have company within the next year, as these other 10 "name" receivers enter the final year of their contracts.
With the help of two NFL GMs, an offensive assistant and a defensive coordinator, I ranked them in order of their likelihood to cash in on big deals next offseason, led by a player considered a "must" to re-sign by one of our sources.
Bryant
Bryant lined up on the perimeter for 89.1 percent of his routes last season, the highest percentage for any player on this list. Versatility is great and teams certainly feature players from the slot, but being labeled as a "slot guy" isn't the best thing for a player's value in evaluators' eyes. "It's such a difference when you have outside guys that can stretch the field," a veteran assistant coach said.
Bryant, who turns 26 in November, accounted for 29.2 percent of the Cowboys' receiving yards last season. That was the highest percentage for any player on the list. He also accounted for 39.4 percent of his team's receiving touchdowns, by far the highest for any player on this list and the third highest for any wide receiver, behind Fitzgerald (41.4 percent) and Megatron (39.4).
"You'd better pay Dez Bryant," one of the GMs said. "Jerry Jones had better pay him. The antics you see, that is raw emotion, his competitive flair coming out."
Another GM expressed some concern about paying Bryant top dollar based on Bryant's overall makeup, but both GMs ranked Bryant first on their list, as did the defensive coordinator. "Teams will bid on Bryant," a third GM said, "but not all the teams will be in on that, because of his personality."
Thomas
2. Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos
Thomas, 26, was first on the offensive assistant's list and second to Bryant on all the others. Perceived coachability was part of the equation. Like Bryant, Thomas has size, age and production on his side. Last season, Thomas ran 86.7 percent of his routes from the perimeter, the second-highest percentage for players on this list, behind only Bryant. That in itself doesn't make him highly valuable, but teams value the ability to win outside.
While Thomas has certainly benefited from playing with Peyton Manning, the feeling among evaluators is that Thomas was less dependent on his quarterback than some receivers have been, including former teammate Eric Decker, who has a tougher time getting open and could require passes delivered with greater accuracy.
The offensive assistant placed Thomas over Bryant on his list "only because Bryant has some issues. Bryant is a better player than all those guys with the possible exception of Thomas, who is so technically sound. But Dez can actually take over a game."
The Cowboys used to have a couple of players with that ability, but with DeMarcus Ware up there in years and no longer on the roster, Bryant is the most dynamic player in Dallas.
Crabtree
3. Michael Crabtree, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers had a hard time signing Crabtree as a rookie in part because Crabtree thought he was worth more than what players in his draft slot generally received. That difficult negotiation remains in my mind as Crabtree approaches free agency. He missed some of last season with a torn Achilles tendon, placing greater importance on the 2014 season for setting his value. Will this be another tough negotiation?
"Crabtree and Bryant are probably the two most talented guys on the list," one of the GMs said. "Demaryius Thomas would be up there. Some people will worry about Crabtree's personality a little bit."
Nelson
4. Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers
Nelson and Crabtree virtually tied for the third spot. Nelson has benefited from consistently outstanding quarterback play. Over the past three years, Nelson trails only Welker and Thomas among players on this list in yards receiving per game. He is second to Smith in yards per reception and second to Bryant in touchdowns.
Nelson has competition from his teammate, Cobb, on this list. Nelson is primarily an outside receiver, while Cobb plays from the slot. Nelson polled higher than Cobb on three of four ballots. The defensive coordinator had Nelson sixth, one spot below Cobb. "I would put Jordy after Crabtree, but before Cobb," one of the GMs said.
The other GM joined the offensive assistant in placing Nelson among his top three. "You have to value that outside guy," the second GM said. "But that inside slot receiver can do a lot of damage."
A third GM I spoke with put it this way: "Nelson fits a big role for them. I would have a hard time saying he would be a hugely paid guy, though. He'll generate interest, but not at the $10-$11 million level. I do think he will come in over Eric Decker, though."
Cobb
5. Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers
At 23, Cobb is easily the youngest player on this list. He missed 10 games last season and one in each of his previous two. That leaves him tied with Crabtree for the most games missed over the past three seasons when isolating the 10 players on this list. Cobb caught four passes for 106 yards and two touchdowns after returning for the Packers' final two games, counting a wild-card playoff defeat to the 49ers.
"Cobb and Crabtree are interchangeable on my list," the offensive assistant said. "Cobb is the model person and will always show up on time. Crabtree comes off whinier, and the guy from Seattle [Richard Sherman] got in his head. Cobb is coming from the right program with Mike McCarthy, one with structure and discipline and doing the right things. Crabtree does play outside more, but I'd rather coach Cobb."
Smith
6. Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens
Smith leads all receivers on this list in games played, yards per reception, air yards per target and lowest drop percentage. Why, then, is he only sixth on this list?
"He's a bit of a one-trick pony [as a downfield threat]," one of the GMs said. "He probably could be higher, but is he better than Crabtree or Cobb? Not yet. The Super Bowl year, everyone did well there. He can run, is a helluva kid and he catches the ball a lot better than he did coming out of college. I think [Ravens assistant] Jim Hostler got Torrey Smith to catch the football."
Welker
7. Wes Welker, Denver Broncos
The defensive coordinator ranked Welker fourth, higher than anyone else ranked him, but the coordinator also said he was thinking more in terms of the threat Welker poses right now, not so much the value an older slot receiver might have in the longer-range future. Welker's concussion history is one concern.
"Welker still serves a purpose in the slot," one of the GMs said. "I feel his defined role is more important than the role Cecil Shorts can play, but at this stage of his career, the money isn't going to be great."
Shorts
8. Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars
Shorts has a shorter track record for production than the other receivers on this list. He was less familiar to the analysts as a result. How prominently does he figure into the Jaguars' plans?
Jacksonville used two second-round choices for wideouts this year, buying some flexibility. While running backs seem to be losing value -- the Jags cut Maurice Jones-Drew this offseason -- NFL teams set a record in 2014 by drafting 12 wide receivers in the first two rounds. The surge began the Buffalo Bills' bold charge up the board to snag Sammy Watkins of Clemson fourth overall. Mike Evans, Odell Beckham, Brandin Cooks and Kelvin Benjamin were also first-rounders.
Back to Shorts. His quarterback situation has been horrendous. Jacksonville ranks last by a wide margin in Total QBR (24.7) since Shorts entered the league in 2011.
White
9. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons
None of the four analysts placed White higher than seventh on his list.
Age was one factor. White, 32, and Welker are the only 30-plus receivers on this list.
White also missed three games to injury last season, the first time he has missed games in his career. His production fell off sharply. A return to health will help, but the evaluators were more interested in the younger talent.
Nicks
10. Hakeem Nicks, Indianapolis Colts
Nicks has a prime opportunity to revive his career, but evaluators thought he checked out last season while the Giants were floundering.
"Nicks has more left in him than White does," one of the GMs said, "but three of the last four guys on this list are on the downside and will not command big money at this point."
Nicks, still only 26, is in position to change that, but the fact that the Giants wanted nothing to do with him was a little alarming.
"Most of the time, the good ones are valued the highest by the teams they are producing for," one of the GMs said. "The ones that actually get to the market and are available are the ones you worry about. When they change teams, the likelihood that they produce at the same level not as good."