Twenty-six NFL coaches and personnel evaluators almost unanimously placed Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Drew Brees in the top tier of starting quarterbacks for our recently published QB Tiers project. Most thought Andrew Luck was in the process of joining them (he cracked Tier 1 as the No. 5 QB in the rankings), and that veterans Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger weren't far behind.
Another question lingered. What about some of the other potential Tier 1 candidates? Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Matthew Stafford and Cam Newton are four ascending young players who generated enough discussion during the QB Tiers project to address in some detail here. What would they have to do to reach Tier 1 status? Coaches and personnel people weren't short on opinions.
Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
What he has already: All the physical ability required, and then some.
Biggest question areas: Mechanics and decision-making mindset.
Stafford was the player mentioned first most regularly when I asked coaches and personnel people which QB outside the top tier was best equipped to reach that top status. But one GM said he thought Calvin Johnson, not Stafford, was the biggest difference-maker for the Lions. And for coaches who value the fundamentals that have helped make Brady and Manning so consistent, Stafford can be a frustrating player to watch.
"It's good that he can throw it from every arm angle and everything, but let's complete the ball," an offensive coach said.
A GM took another view, noting that people said similar things about Brett Favre. He said Stafford and possibly Jay Cutler are the only QBs outside Tier 1 with the arm talent to dominate a game the way Favre could back when Green Bay went toe-to-toe with the 1990s Dallas Cowboys. However, having the talent to do it and actually doing it are not the same.
"Mechanically, he is flawed," a different offensive coach said. "He has not been coached very well. Peyton and those guys have worked hard on their footwork. San Diego did it with Rivers and he had not done that. If you get Stafford to do those things, he can be a two for sure."
That coach made Stafford a three. A third offensive coach said the Lions need a more disciplined culture for Stafford to reach his Tier 1 potential.
"If he finds someone to force him to be disciplined, and they run the ball, he can be any of those guys," this coach said. "That guy is way above average physically, really competitive, really quick with the ball -- way faster than people give him credit for, especially his quickness to avoid. He has the whole deal if he is not too far gone with the, 'I just have to make a play and do it my way.' You need someone willing to coach him on a daily basis. He was raised by wolves over there."
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
What he has already: Leadership, decision-making, mobility, Super Bowl pedigree
Biggest question areas: How much his lack of height lowers his ceiling
Wilson has done just about everything right to this point in his career, but coaches and personnel people aren't going to place him in the top tier until they see him carry more of the offensive load from week to week. Of course, it's not Wilson's fault that he has a dominant running back and an even better defense to lighten the load on his shoulder. It's not his fault coach that Pete Carroll throttles back the offense to minimize risk and improve the Seahawks' chances for winning.
The five Tier 1 QBs averaged between 38-42 dropbacks, 33-38 pass attempts and 250-315 passing yards per game over the past five seasons (two seasons for Luck). Wilson has averaged 30.5 drop-backs, 25 pass attempts and 202 yards passing per game.
"I don't know if he’ll ever be the pocket passer to beat you from a spot like all those number ones," a former GM said. "Eventually, people will stop rushing him and make him beat them from the pocket. Time will tell if he can do that at 5-foot-10."
Another former GM noted that Wilson could not carry the Seahawks late last season. Seattle ranked 21st in offensive EPA from Week 14 forward, one spot behind Cleveland.
"To be a one, you can win it by yourself," this former GM said. "Fourth quarter, here is the ball. You're John Elway and you have to go 90 yards. We'll only win because of you. Watch the second half of last year for Seattle and it was a grind. If it wasn't for Marshawn Lynch, they had nothing. I'm a huge fan of Russell Wilson, but if they relied just on him late, they would have been 4-4. He played some bad games, and ball security was an issue."
That sounds harsh, but we're not talking about whether Wilson is a good QB. He is. The question is whether he can join Tier 1. I remember sitting next to a scout in the press box at Soldier Field for a Seahawks-Bears game late in the 2012 season. The scout came into the game thinking Wilson was a nice player. He called him a "monster" after Wilson took over the game and led 97- and 80-yard touchdown drives late in the game to pull out a 23-17 victory. It seemed like a Tier 1 performance.
"When they pay him and that defense goes to the middle of the pack and he starts throwing for 250-plus a game, then he is there," an offensive coach said.
A veteran safety who has played multiple games against Seattle said he wanted to see how Wilson grows in terms responsibilities before the snap.
"I don’t think he really does well reading defenses and checking plays [at this point]," the safety said. "He does a great job getting out of the pocket and extending plays and not taking hits, which I think is the difference between him and [Robert] Griffin III. The reason I like Russell, though, is because he is smart enough not to make mistakes. He knows how to manage a game. He is not trying to win the game on his own. They are going to run the ball, run calculated play-action passes, and when they do throw it, he is making it happen. He will check a play here or there to a good call, but he is not very flashy with it. It is not all on his shoulders."
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
What he has already: Rare physical ability in every area
Biggest question areas: Offensive system/weapons, and offensive pedigree
There is no questioning Newton's physical ability. Some said that ability alone makes Newton a candidate to achieve Tier 1 status. That was not a majority opinion, however.
"I think he is forever a two at the best," one offensive coach said. "He is coming from so far back. He was at Florida a bit, at the JC a bit, then Auburn. There just hasn't been a basis for a football IQ at the level of Rivers and Brees and those guys, and I do not think Carolina is pushing him that way with their scheme. They are going to play what is called, they have a QB-involved run game where he does not audible out of plays because there are too many guys in the box. Is that because of them or him?"
Newton has come closer than Wilson to reaching the per-game averages Tier 1 QBs have shown in dropbacks, pass attempts and passing yardage. Those statistics say nothing about how well a QB is playing, but they do provide a gauge for how much of the load the QB is carrying. If you're a Tier 1 QB, your coaches will want to run the offense through you. Those figures for Newton dropped some last season as Carolina improved significantly on defense.
"You have to throw to win unless you have an extreme situation like San Francisco, Carolina and Seattle," the offensive coach said. "When you get a QB who can do Rivers-type stuff mentally, the whole world opens up to you. If you have a Newton or Kaepernick, it opens up other things. But if you have to throw to win, which you have to do if you do not have a top-10 defense, then it matters to coaches. You can win with those other guys, but you have to play a particular style."
So, can Newton reach Tier 1? "He has the potential, just based on the fact that he has an NFL passer's skill set and has flashed the ability to beat you from the pocket," a GM said.
Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
What he has already: Plenty of arm, good coaching and a playoff pedigree
Biggest question areas: Whether he can become a polished passer
Kaepernick's dynamic running ability has defined him more than his passing. Several coaches and personnel people thought Kaepernick was more likely than Wilson to achieve Tier 1 status, but these people also thought Kaepernick would be more apt to settle into the third or fourth tier. They typically thought Wilson had a higher floor and a lower ceiling, in other words. And they did not think Kaepernick had shown an ability to win with his arm consistently. That theme was strong when I consulted veteran defensive backs as well.
"Kaepernick is OK, but you look at his game, and it's his legs," one safety said. "He has a strong arm, but I don't know if he can make every throw."
A veteran corner put it this way: "He is definitely not on Luck's level. He made a lot of plays with his legs, not as many with his arm or his smarts, knowing the game."
That is understandable. Kaepernick has fewer than two full seasons as a starter. He played in a pistol offense at Nevada. The 49ers have tailored their offense to him as well.
"From a throwing standpoint, I don't know if he will be regarded in the same neighborhood as those [Tier 1] guys," a defensive coordinator said. "He might play to his ceiling and be really good."
An offensive coach also questioned whether Kaepernick would throw the ball well enough to reach the highest level.
"He throws one kind of ball: flat and hard," this coach said. "You miss out on touch throws, arm angles, those kinds of things. But if anybody can get really close, he can because he is a wonderfully high-character person who has not been changed an ounce by what has happened to him. He is a better person than player, and I think that really will go a long way for consistency over time."