Many Miami Dolphins fans are sitting on a cloud of happiness, optimism and anticipation regarding the selection of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa with the No. 5 pick in the 2020 NFL draft.
The former Alabama quarterback is coming off a devastating hip injury in November that some worried would ruin his NFL career, and the coronavirus pandemic means he likely won't hit the practice field with his teammates until late July at the earliest.
So when will Tagovailoa -- the Dolphins' hopeful next franchise quarterback -- be ready to play in a game for Miami?
"I'd say my kids are expecting him. They are big fans. They were excited to get on a phone call with him," Dolphins coach Brian Flores said. "Look, we haven't even seen him. Obviously, with the pandemic and all that's going on, our doctors haven't seen him. We have a long way to go before we can say who's doing what. We have to just get him and have a meeting first. I think it's way too early to speculate on this year and how this is going to go. You guys know we like to take a one-day-at-a-time approach anyway. That's going to be the approach I'm going to have him take as well."
The best path for the Dolphins and Tagovailoa seems clear: The 22-year-old, left-handed QB from Hawaii should redshirt the 2020 season while veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick leads Miami's offense one final year.
This will require patience. And, it doesn't create much excitement, but sitting Tagovailoa is the most prudent move for all parties involved. Given the circumstances, ESPN NFL analyst Dan Orlovsky agrees on the sit-and-start plan.
"It's been a no-brainer to me since the injury happened that he doesn't play this year," said Orlovsky, who was an NFL QB for 13 seasons. "Don't give up what you really want for what you want right now. You want him to be a superstar quarterback for 12 years. Why would you rush him on the field? I don't want him thinking about the injury. I want him thinking that he's the baddest guy on the field in 2021."
Tagovailoa said his doctors told him he "checked all the boxes" and that he is "able to play if need be." But, does he need to play in 2020?
Here are a few of the reasons not to play Tagovailoa:
The Dolphins have a capable quarterback in Fitzpatrick -- who is a locker room and fan favorite and is familiar with new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey's scheme. The Dolphins also are building a young offensive line that could have four or five new starters, so a veteran quarterback would be ideal in this situation. And, with Josh Rosen still on the roster, the Dolphins could use him as the backup to Fitzpatrick. Finally, Flores and general manager Chris Grier have plenty of rope to build this team right, and if 2020 isn't a winning season, then there's time to course-correct before jobs are lost.
Nick Saban tells Stephen A. Smith that Tua Tagovailoa still has a lot to learn when it comes to his durability.
The idea of redshirting a rookie quarterback isn't a novel theory. It used to be the standard for first-year QBs to sit and learn behind a veteran starter -- see Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers (who didn't start a game in his first three seasons sitting behind Brett Favre) and Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes (who sat the first 15 games of his rookie season behind Alex Smith and started in Week 17 only because Kansas City had clinched a playoff spot) as recent examples.
But more frequently, first-round quarterbacks have been thrust into game action. Over the past 10 years, 21 of the 30 first-round quarterbacks started at least 10 games as rookies. Only one first-rounder -- the Tennessee Titans' Jake Locker -- failed to start a game as a rookie. Of those 30 first-rounders, 12 started Week 1 and 25 started six or more games as rookies.
The numbers fly in the face of the Dolphins sitting Tagovailoa this season, indicating that the most common path for NFL teams is starting a first-round rookie quarterback more than half the season.
Miami needs to ignore the numbers, ignore the calls to start Tagovailoa if the season doesn't go well early on, and tread the less common path.
"You make sure everybody knows from [Dolphins owner] Mr. [Stephen] Ross down to the fan base that there's not a single thing that could happen to our football team this year where Tua Tagovailoa steps on the field in a regular-season game," Orlovsky said. "I don't care if we start 0-7 or 0-8."
The Dolphins should follow the Mahomes plan with Fitzpatrick -- who is set to return in 2020 and has shown a willingness to mentor quarterbacks -- functioning as Miami's version of Smith. Fitzpatrick is the perfect guy to keep Miami afloat and teach Tagovailoa the intricacies of being an NFL quarterback with the added benefit of allowing the rookie time to feel comfortable playing again after his hip injury.
Ross, in February, referenced Fitzpatrick's future role with the Dolphins.
"[Fitzpatrick] is a good fit for our team coming back. Certainly we're going to be drafting a quarterback," Ross said. "Ryan Fitzpatrick's 37 this [season]. He'll be 38 next [season]. You know he's not the future of the franchise. But he's a great person, he's a great mentor and he's the kind of guy you want there to introduce the next quarterback."
Flores is a headmaster at the school of competition, so it seems unlikely that early in the offseason he will take Orlovsky's suggestion and rule out any chance of Tagovailoa playing in 2020. However, Grier also credited Flores for being able to take the long-term view in team building. Either way, Tagovailoa says he'll be ready.
"I'm going to go out there and compete as if I'm preparing to be the starter, even if I'm not going to be the starter right away or the entire season," he said.
A reassuring sign that redshirting during the 2020 season could happen is that Tagovailoa and his team have shown a willingness to consider that option. Miami was Tagovailoa's preferred destination after he declared for the draft, sources close to the quarterback told ESPN, and part of the reason is because he believed Ross, Flores and Grier would have the best plan for his long-term success in the league.
So, while seeing Tagovailoa make an incredible recovery from his hip injury to start for the Dolphins 10 months later and go on to win NFL Rookie of the Year would be quite the comeback story, the best decision the Dolphins could -- and should -- make is to redshirt the young quarterback in 2020 so he can put his stamp on the league in 2021.