HENDERSON, Nev. -- When it comes to the Las Vegas Raiders' new regime of coach Josh McDaniels and general manager Dave Ziegler and the future of franchise quarterback Derek Carr, a fork in the road has appeared.
More succinctly, three distinct paths.
So which one do they take? Time will tell. Which one should they take? Depends upon your allegiances and, well, common sense. But if you were to take Carr at his word -- he always tells reporters he's telling them the "truth" in media conferences, right? -- the road should not be long or winding.
So take a walk with us down each path with us.
"My goal when I got here was to give everything I have to this organization, let our fans know that I'm giving it all that I have and I will always continue to do that -- on-season, offseason -- and whether the situation is great or not, that's okay. ... There's still more and I want to do it here. I don't want to do it anywhere else.
"I've said it over and over again -- I'd probably quit football if I had to play for somebody else. I'm a Raider for my entire life. And I'm going to root for one team for the rest of my life and it's the Raiders. I just feel that so strong in my heart. I don't need a perfect situation, I believe that. I don't need a perfect situation to make things right. ... I'd rather go down with ship if I have to." -- Carr, in minicamp on June 15, 2021
The path: With all the guaranteed money on the then-record five-year, $125 million extension he signed with the Raiders on June 22, 2017, paid out, the Raiders simply guarantee the $19.8-plus million remaining on his deal for 2022 and dangle the idea of an extension or a $30 million-plus franchise tag for 2023 as a reward or thank-you note, of sorts.
The reasoning: Carr's words spoke volumes, so take him up on them. The Raiders need to sign Pro Bowl defensive MVP Maxx Crosby and Pro Bowl receiver Hunter Renfrow to extensions that would be less expensive than a QB's. Remember what happened the last time the Raiders put a star edge rusher on the back burner after taking care of Carr, Gabe Jackson, Justin Ellis and Seth Roberts? As Raiders owner Mark Davis told ESPN.com at the time, they figured Khalil Mack would honor his contract and play under the $13-plus million fifth-year option in 2018 before the team would reward him with the richest-ever contract for a defensive player the following year. Nope. A perturbed Mack held out into training camp and the Raiders blinked, trading him to the Chicago Bears.
Carr honoring his deal, while getting guaranteed money in the process, gives the team financial flexibility to address other needs. And it gives both Carr and the new regime a season to acclimate to each other without jumping into something that might not work long term for either party. Because, what if Carr's skill set doesn't mesh with McDaniels' system, and vice-versa? The QB market and money will still be there at the end of Carr's current deal. But it's not about money, right?
"I look forward to taking the first snap in that stadium, and I look forward to taking every snap from here on out -- until I'm done." -- Carr, at the Raiders' renaming ceremony from Oakland to Las Vegas, on Jan. 22, 2020.
The path: The Raiders jump the broom and fully commit to the guy who holds virtually every passing record in franchise history, but a career 57-70 record and no playoff wins in eight seasons, with an above-market extension.
The reasoning: Figures as high as $40 million per season were bandied about last week and then ... nothing. Carr fans insist he is worth every penny, that he led Las Vegas to the playoffs last season with an inordinate amount of adversity and has put up numbers despite having issues on the offensive line or at receiver, that he took a team-friendly deal in 2017 to stay with the Raiders. Except ... it was the richest contract in NFL history at the time. Still, whether he deserves it or not is not the point here; extending Carr shows a commitment from McDaniels and Ziegler and, yes, Davis, that they are the ones willing to "go down with the ship," so to speak, or ride said ship to parts unknown. Hopefully, for them, to a title.
A big debate on social media is whether Carr is a top-10 quarterback and, if so, he deserves to paid as such. Fair enough. But such a commitment would essentially be like buying a house sight unseen, given no one still knows how Carr, who turns 31 on March 28, fits into McDaniels' offense. An extension paying Carr between $30-$35 million per season would seemingly be more palatable.
"My agent [Tim Younger] has a great relationship with everybody in the [Raiders] organization. We do a great job of communicating; we have a great back and forth about a lot of things. There have been a lot of things to communicate about this year. When the time comes, I never want to be a 'face-to-face' guy. I'm going to play quarterback. My message will be talked about. They can do what they want with it. ... I'm not going to have dinner and say, 'We have to do something.' I'm not that guy. I'm going to do my role and let my voice be heard in a different way." -- Carr, after the playoff loss at the Cincinnati Bengals on Jan. 15, 2022.
The path: Trade Carr for a bounty of picks that must include at least one first-rounder.
The reasoning: Yeah, Carr's quote about going down with the ship last summer raised eyebrows in the Raiders building, and his saying he would probably retire rather than play for another team might have been an attempt to depress his trade value. But if the Raiders have seen all they need to from Carr -- he is who he is after eight seasons -- and if someone is willing to help McDaniels with a rebuild courtesy of at least one first-rounder for Carr, what would be the holdup?
Not for nothing, but NFL Nation recently held a QB carnival -- for lack of a better term -- and after kicking the tires on a starter-for-starter trade for Russell Wilson that included safety Johnathan Abram (it was summarily and expectedly rejected by my Seattle Seahawks reporter counterpart, Brady Henderson), I accepted a trade offer from Washington Commanders reporter John Keim.
I swapped Carr for the Commanders' first-round selection (No. 11 overall) this year and a conditional fourth-rounder in 2023 that would become a second-rounder should Carr lead Washington to the postseason in 2022 with at least 10 wins and sign an extension there. I also re-signed Marcus Mariota to be the starter (hey, like Carr, he, too, would be learning a new system under McDaniels and is more willing to extend plays, a prerequisite in the new coach's red-zone offense) and used that No. 11 pick to draft Ole Miss QB Matt Corral. And the new regime is off and running, no pun intended.
Of course, that's all easier said than done, especially since you'd hope the Raiders would have a plan in place if they did move on from Carr. With the Raiders going a decidedly different Patriot Way in the coaching staff and front office, there are at least three QBs who know McDaniels' system intimately that could be on the market soon and would cost less than $40 million per season: Jimmy Garoppolo, Tom Brady and Brian Hoyer. But that's a different story for a different day.