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Las Vegas Raiders NFL offseason preview: New regime comes in with hopes of return to playoffs

How will starting quarterback Derek Carr and backup Marcus Mariota, who is a free agent, factor into the Raiders' plans under new coach Josh McDaniels? Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire

LAS VEGAS -- The Las Vegas Raiders went through a season of upheaval unseen in recent NFL history and came out of it with a winning record (10-7) and the franchise's first playoff berth since 2016, its second since 2002. In less than a year the Raiders have seen the departures of coach Jon Gruden, general manager Mike Mayock, interim coach Rich Bisaccia and both of their 2020 first-round picks -- receiver Henry Ruggs III and cornerback Damon Arnette.

A new regime was hired by owner Mark Davis to bring the football operations into the 21st century in poaching the New England Patriots for general manager Dave Ziegler and coach Josh McDaniels, a development that both excites and upsets a fan base accustomed to abhorring the Patriot Way. Alas, McDaniels is seen as an elite offensive playcaller, and the Raiders do have talent on that side of the ball, from franchise quarterback Derek Carr to elite tight end Darren Waller to Cooper Kupp-like slot receiver Hunter Renfrow.

Defensively, the Raiders will change their identity under defensive coordinator Patrick Graham because while the defense did improve under former DC Gus Bradley, the bar was extremely low and so many of the Raiders' free agents are on that side of the ball. Davis said this is not a rebuild -- rather, a reload centered on taking that next step. Stay tuned.

Projected salary-cap space: $20.95 million

Top free agents: QB Marcus Mariota, CB Casey Hayward Jr., RB Jalen Richard, WR Zay Jones, WR DeSean Jackson, LG Richie Incognito, DT Johnathan Hankins, DT Solomon Thomas, DT Quinton Jefferson, LB K.J. Wright

Potential cut candidates: Two guys to watch are linebackers Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski. They were signed to revamp the LB corps in 2020, and neither player has lived up to the hype, as Littleton was replaced by rookie Divine Deablo last season and a banged-up Kwiatkoski had all kinds of trouble staying on the field. Littleton, though, has a cap number of more than $15.7 million for 2022. Yikes.

The big question: What will McDaniels and Ziegler do with Carr? Well, it depends on whether they see him fitting McDaniels' scheme, as opposed to any kind of haul they might get in return in a trade. Carr holds virtually every passing record in franchise history but has a career record of only 57-70 and, in his eighth season, just played in his first playoff game.

Carr is entering the final year of the then-record $125 million extension he signed in 2017 and is scheduled to make a little more than $19.6 million this season, though all the guaranteed money from his deal is already paid out. A "prove-it" upper-market, short-term extension might be the move here, as Carr is a proven quarterback and gives McDaniels a head start on the most important position in team sports. Unless, of course, McDaniels wants a fresh start.

Best-case scenario for the team's offseason: A content Carr adjusts well to McDaniels' scheme in offseason workouts, and a noticeable improvement in the red zone offense ensues. Also, Graham adjusts his scheme to best fit the edge rushing talent at his disposal in Pro Bowl defensive MVP Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue, rather than forcing them to play in the 3-4 scheme he has featured in his previous stops.

Worst-case scenario for the team's offseason: The Raiders move on from Carr with no real plan in place and free agents take a wait-and-see approach on Las Vegas in general, the new regime in particular, and pass on signing with the new-look Raiders, who still have several areas of need -- including a No. 1 WR, O-line help and cornerback.

Early look at the NFL draft, from ESPN analyst Jordan Reid: Ushering in the Josh McDaniels era is likely to bring many changes. Adding a wide receiver to the current group is a necessity, and getting better up the middle of the defense should be a priority. With the interior defensive line class being strong during Day 2 of the draft, the Raiders could look to target key pieces then.

Top needs: WR, IDL, CB

Top pick: No. 22