It's "best tools" week! For the third straight year, Keith Law lays out his rankings (and reasoning) of the players with the best tools in baseball. Today he evaluates the four key hitting/speed tools that scouts use to evaluate players (see last year's rankings here). Future tools posts: pitching on Tuesday and fielding on Wednesday.
Hit tool
1. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
2. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels
4. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
5. Freddie Freeman, 1B, Atlanta Braves
Altuve is a remarkable story in many ways, not least of which for how the shortest player in baseball rarely strikes out (10.3 percent since the start of 2015, seventh-lowest among qualifiers) yet has consistently superior results when he puts the ball in play (.350 BABIP in that span, 11th-highest). We're used to seeing higher BABIP players who strike out a lot because they're swinging hard and putting the ball in the air when they make contact. The converse is the guy who puts the ball in play often but does so on the ground, hurting his BABIP and his overall value because he doesn't hit for power.
Altuve is the paragon of the modern hitter: His contact rates are high, and he does more on contact than most players. He has also recently taken the American League WAR lead (among position players) from Aaron Judge, and with the Astros a lock to make the playoffs, I like Altuve's chances to win the MVP award, between his performance and the narrative that will surround him.
There aren't any big surprises on this list, but there are plenty of guys with plus hit tools who deserve a mention and perhaps belong in the top five. Anthony Rendon would have been the next name; when he's healthy, he's a pretty complete hitter, and his swing decisions have long been excellent (more on that below). Bryce Harper might not be known for his hit tool, but he makes a lot of contact, and most of it is hard. Carlos Correa is not that far behind the top group, either.
Power tool
1. Joey Gallo, 1B, Texas Rangers
2. Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
3. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins
4. Bryce Harper, RF, Washington Nationals
5. Cody Bellinger, 1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Three of the five players on this list weren't on last year's; two weren't in the majors, and the third, Judge, had just arrived. They're all among the top six hitters in MLB this season in isolated power (Michael Conforto is the other), all are in the top nine in homers, and all are in the top 25 in average exit velocity. Gallo has the most raw power of any player I've ever scouted, and the numbers back it up: He's second in average exit velocity this year and leads all MLB hitters in average distance of batted balls and average height of balls hit in play. Gallo's triple-slash line of .206/.320/.552 is going to end up in articles for years about how a hitter can post a miserable batting average and still be a valuable player. Gallo has been worth 2.6 WAR this season, losing 0.2 for defense and position because of all the walks and power he is producing.
We're also in a real power golden age right now, with home run rates -- especially that of homer as a percentage of total fly balls -- at what appear to be historic highs, so there are plenty of guys with plus-plus power who couldn't crack the top five. Miguel Sano comes to mind. Paul Goldschmidt has some pop. Rafael Devers took a 102.8 mph fastball out of the park -- left-on-left! -- against Aroldis Chapman on Aug. 13. Nelson Cruz, who was in the top five last year, is probably still somewhere in the top 15 or so. And there are a lot of guys with raw power who don't produce enough in games (Mark Reynolds, Kennys Vargas, Mark Trumbo) to crack the list.
Speed tool
1. Billy Hamilton, CF, Cincinnati Reds
2. Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins
3. Dee Gordon, 2B, Miami Marlins
4. Trea Turner, SS, Washington Nationals
5. Jarrod Dyson, CF, Seattle Mariners
Hamilton and Buxton are still the two fastest players I've ever seen. Hamilton has posted the quickest home-to-first run times I've ever gotten from either side of the plate, with those two players ranking first and second in MLB's new "sprint speed" metric, which uses Statcast data to measure outfielders' speed while chasing down fly balls.
Turner has been out since the end of June with a broken wrist, and I think his season has been a bit of a letdown for Nats fans, given how well he hit in 2016, but his speed -- always his best asset -- is intact and remains a big part of his value. Fangraphs has him adding 5.8 runs with his baserunning alone; that's more than a quarter of the total value he has given the Nats this year.
This is also where I make my annual mention of Terrance Gore, who would make the list if he were on a major league roster right now. With 39 regular-season games played, Gore ranks second among non-pitchers for career games played without ever recording a hit, behind only another pinch runner, Oakland's Herb Washington. Washington was used only as a pinch runner, never recording a single plate appearance, while Gore has no hits in nine career plate appearances; this puts him well short of the career mark of no hits in 27 plate appearances, set by Larry Littleton, all in 1981. (Kyle Higashioka is at 20 and Mark Zagunis at 14, all in 2017, but I think each guy will eventually register that first hit.)
Plate discipline
1. Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati Reds
2. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
3. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels
4. Matt Carpenter, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
5. Anthony Rendon, 3B, Washington Nationals
What's so remarkable about Votto is that he swings at the fewest pitches out of the zone of anyone in baseball by a decent margin (per Fangraphs) but ranks well above the league median in swinging at pitches in the zone. That is, he makes arguably the best decisions on when to swing of anyone in baseball, which I'd say is the best definition of plate discipline I can offer.
All of these hitters strike out some because that's part of the game -- and disciplined hitters will still take their fair share of called third strikes. But they're all patient without being passive, though Carpenter might be pushing the envelope in the latter area, and they all recognize pitch types well in addition to distinguishing balls from strikes.
Just missing the list: Corey Seager, part of a three-way NL MVP race along with, not coincidentally, Goldschmidt and Rendon. Seager is quietly off to a Hall of Fame-caliber start to his career. He's already at 12.8 WAR in 292 games over parts of three seasons and could easily cross 14. Of the 41 players to reach 14 WAR in their first three seasons (of any length), more than half are in the Hall, deserve to be or are still active and likely to earn election.