It's "best tools" week! For a second straight year, Keith Law lays out his rankings (and reasoning) for the players with the best tools in baseball. Today he evaluates the four key hitting/speed tools that scouts use to evaluate players (See last year's rankings here). Future tools posts: fielding/throwing.
Hit tool
1. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
2. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds
3. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
4. Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros
5. Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers
This is the most difficult tool to assess both for prospects and for big leaguers. For prospects, the difficulty is in projecting how hitters will respond to major league pitching -- better stuff, much better command, a faster game overall. For big leaguers, however, we can spend hours debating what we mean by the ability to hit. Is it just making contact? Is it hard contact? Is it hitting for average? Does someone such as Christian Yelich, who makes a lot of contact and hits for a high average but hits the ball on the ground more than anyone else in baseball, have a plus hit tool? I settled on the definition I've always used: The hit tool reflects the ability to square up good pitching. That means it isn't just contact but hard contact, particularly line drives, as those are most likely to land for hits.
Goldschmidt was No. 1 here last year as well, and nothing has changed. He makes a lot of hard contact, and though his strikeout total is in the top 10 in the National League, it's a question of approach, as he rarely swings and misses; his swinging-strike rate of 6.9 percent is the lowest of his career to date. … Votto's great year has been overlooked because the Reds are so terrible, but he's among the NL leaders in BABIP, line-drive percentage and hard contact rate, all while doing Votto-like things, including drawing 90 walks and hitting for power. … Trout is the same player as always: the best player in baseball, the most valuable player in the American League with no shot to win the award because the Angels are so bad. … Altuve's main skill at the plate is his ability to make contact -- he's the fifth-most difficult hitter in MLB to strike out since the start of 2015 -- although others are better at reaching base safely on contact. … Seager's going to run away with the NL Rookie of the Year award, and the biggest surprise of his season has been how advanced he is as a hitter. He makes hard contact and ranks just 32nd in the NL in strikeouts.
Power tool
1. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Marlins
2. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals
3. Miguel Sano, OF/3B/DH, Twins
4. Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets
5. Nelson Cruz, DH/OF, Mariners
Power can refer to either raw power -- what a hitter shows in batting practice or is (theoretically) capable of producing in games if he gets enough pitches to hit -- or to game power, which is more or less what a hitter produces after the first pitch. Ryan Sweeney showed 60 or 70 power (on the 20-80 scouting scale) in batting practice throughout his career, yet he hit all of 23 home runs in 682 major league games.
I've split the baby a bit here, going about 80 percent game power and 20 percent raw, so guys such as Chris Carter or Mark Trumbo, who have enormous raw power but don't hit enough to get to it all, fall behind the five names I've listed, guys who have produced plus power in the majors and consistently hit for enough hard contact to show it. Stanton and Harper are a cut above anyone else in the big leagues, though Rangers prospect Joey Gallo might have more raw power than either of them. Sano and teammate Byron Buxton might be the two Twins most likely to benefit from a change in the coaching staff in Minnesota, and even with some strange handling, Sano has produced 20 homers in 88 games this season, with a .232 Isolated Power mark (which would be 17th in the AL if he qualified). We're in a golden era of power right now, as I considered a dozen or so other players for those last two spots, including Edwin Encarnacion, David Ortiz, J.D. Martinez, Chris Davis and, of course, Mike Trout.
Speed tool
1. Billy Hamilton, OF, Reds
2. Jarrod Dyson, OF, Royals
3. Billy Burns, OF, Royals
4. Rajai Davis, OF, Indians
5. Trea Turner, IF/OF, Nationals
It's Billy Hamilton and everybody else when it comes to running speed. Hamilton is the fastest runner I've ever seen on a baseball field and the fastest I've timed on my stopwatch. What he does with his legs is comparable to what Aroldis Chapman does with his fastball; they stretch the limit of what we thought was physically possible. Dyson is the fastest Royals player currently in the majors but probably not in the organization. Terrance Gore might be the second-fastest man in baseball, but he's 0-for-7 in his big league career over three seasons -- with 10 stolen bases -- and hasn't been on the Royals' roster since May 4.
Plate discipline
1. Joey Votto, 1B, Reds
2. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Diamondbacks
3. Mike Trout, OF, Angels
4. Bryce Harper, OF, Nationals
5. Carlos Santana, DH/1B, Indians
I doubt the first four are any surprise. Votto is one of the most patient hitters we've seen post-Barry Bonds, and the next three guys are consistently among the league leaders in walks and OBP. Plate discipline is more than just a walk total, though that's obviously a strong indicator of the skill. It's about recognizing pitch types as well as balls and strikes and thus being able to put yourself in hitter's counts by laying off pitches that should be called balls. Santana is the only hitter besides Votto to swing at less than 20 percent of pitches outside the strike zone this year (per FanGraphs), with Dexter Fowler and Ben Zobrist, both very disciplined hitters, coming in just over that threshold.
Jose Altuve deserves mention here as well. Although not highly patient, he rarely swings and misses, walks almost as often as he strikes out and is able to make contact with a lot of pitches outside the zone that other hitters can't square up. To Altuve's credit, he has already set a new career high with 42 unintentional walks this season.