This year’s draft class has been, on the whole, disappointing. We came into the spring with a surfeit of candidates for the top spot and for the top 10 in general, but far more top prospects have underperformed so far than have boosted their stock. Even Kyle Wright, ranked No. 2 below, has had an up-and-down season and just recently started to turn the corner with 16 shutout innings in his past two starts.
When you combine the overall lack of star-caliber performances with the draft’s (known) lack of position players up the middle, you get an opportunity for solid college performers at the plate and on the mound to move up in the rankings, given that on draft day, teams will likely flee to safety even more than they normally do. If you don’t feel great about the various upside players available at your pick, you might just take the player with the track record of production, perhaps cutting a deal to save some money and go over-slot with later picks. That has boosted the two bats at Virginia on this list, two bats at North Carolina (one listed, with Brian Miller somewhere in the next 10-20 names) and some solid college starters such as Morgan Cooper and Griffin Canning.
This list is a ranking -- not a prediction of who will be picked where on draft day. I don’t think teams have narrowed their lists enough to write a first-round projection that’s worth the electrons I’d expend on it. I do think, however, that my list will tend to rank high school pitchers higher than they’ll be selected on draft day because this group of prep arms as a whole is not as good as the classes of the past few years.
That said, the class as a whole just isn’t deep in any category. I tried to come up with a hundred names worthy of ranking in a top 100, which I’ll do in a few weeks, and stalled out after around 70 to 75 who merited it. Perhaps that will mean a run on the handful of high-upside prep players, both pitchers and hitters, once we get to teams’ second picks in the sandwich round -- players I’ve identified as first-rounders based strictly on talent, without regard to signability or individual teams’ preferences for safer college players.
1. Hunter Greene, RHP/SS, Notre Dame (Sherman Oaks, California) High School
The year’s top talent is a 17-year-old phenom from Giancarlo Stanton’s alma mater, a true two-way prospect who plays elite-level defense at short and has raw power, but who is a better prospect on the mound. There he has reached 101 mph and sits in the mid-90s with easy arm action and tremendous athleticism.
2. Kyle Wright, RHP, Vanderbilt
Wright’s outing against Florida on April 14 re-established him as one of the top three college pitchers in the draft. He has the delivery and size of a starter, with an out pitch in his slider and a fastball that has reached 96. If he maintains the command and aggressiveness he showed against the Gators, he should be the first college right-hander taken.
3. Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Louisville
McKay, like Greene, is a true two-way prospect, with some scouts saying he’s the best pure hitter in the draft. I think he’s a better prospect on the mound, with a 90-95 mph fastball and plus curveball along with a long track record of performance.
4. Royce Lewis, SS/2B, Jserra Catholic (San Juan Capistrano, California) High School
Lewis has pretty good feel to hit and tons of athleticism, including a plus-plus run tool, that should make him a top-10 pick even though he lacks a clear position. His arm isn’t strong enough for the left side of the infield, and he might move off the dirt completely.
5. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, North Carolina
Bukauskas has a plus fastball and plus slider now, though UNC has him overusing the latter pitch, and he can turn over his changeup well enough that I think he’ll end up with three above-average weapons. He’s also a 6-foot right-hander with no fastball plane and a delivery that makes no use of his lower half, which gives him reliever risk that Wright and McKay lack.
6. MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Whiteville (North Carolina) High School
Gore might be this year’s Braxton Garrett, a lefty with an average fastball but command and feel beyond his years, along with a tight curveball that looks like a potential out pitch.
7. Pavin Smith, 1B, Virginia
Smith is the safest of safe guys, as he has been among the hardest Division I hitters to strike out (just six times through 43 games and 195 PA through April 22), while making hard contact and showing some power. College first basemen taken in the first round do not have a strong track record, however.
8. DL Hall, LHP, Valdosta (Georgia) High School
Hall works in the low 90s with a hammer curveball but lacks the command and control of Gore and has some cross-body action in his delivery. He might have more long-term upside than Gore, but I’d bet on Gore to move through the minors more quickly.
9. Nick Pratto, 1B, Huntington Beach (California) High School
Pratto seems to have separated himself as the best pure hitter among the high school crop this year, though high school first basemen taken high don’t have the greatest track record, either.
10. Jeren Kendall, OF, Vanderbilt
Kendall could easily slip into the back of the first round after a spring in which he has had trouble making contact, but the athleticism here -- maybe an 80 runner, with bat speed and good range in center -- is hard to pass up. I think the team that takes Kendall has to be ready to overhaul his entire swing.
11. Adam Haseley, OF, Virginia
Haseley leads the Cavaliers in all three triple-slash stats (.396/.495/.689) and in walks (32) through April 22, showing surprising power and the potential to stay in centerfield long-term, though I don’t know that he’s going to have more than fringy power with the wood bat.
12. Austin Beck, OF, North Davidson (Lexington, North Carolina) High School
Beck is already pretty tooled up and physically mature, with tremendous bat speed, but there is some effort to his game and some trouble with off-speed stuff.
13. Alex Faedo, RHP, Florida
Faedo looks reliever-ish to me, though I know enough scouts think he can start that I’d call it 60/40 that he ends up in the pen. He has shown bigger velocity in the past but is more average this year, with a plus slider and below-average command.
14. Mark Vientos, SS, American Heritage (Plantation, Florida) High School
Vientos is one of the more promising prep bats in the class, with good bat speed and big rotation for future power. He’ll be just 17-and-a-half at the draft -- and he looks it, with a young body that offers a ton of physical projection. He’s a shortstop now but almost certainly moves off the position to third or second.
15. Sam Carlson, RHP, Burnsville (Minnesota) High School
I believe Carlson was the last prospect on this list to play in a game this spring, as he made his season debut earlier this month and came out hot at 92-96, with a good delivery and a body that looks ready to step into a big league rotation.
16. Blayne Enlow, RHP, St. Amant (Louisiana) High School
Enlow is a very projectable prep right-hander who works in the 88-92 range now but has three pitches and a good delivery and frame to end up with a lot more stuff down the road.
17. Brendon Little, LHP, State College of Florida -- Manatee (Bradenton, Florida)
UNC couldn’t find any innings for Little last spring. He transferred to junior college and has been up to 96 this spring with a hammer curveball and a workable changeup, though his height and short stride raise reliever questions with him too.
18. Trevor Rogers, LHP, Carlsbad (New Mexico) High School
Rogers is one of the oldest prep players in the class -- he’ll turn 20 in November -- but the stuff is there now, up to the mid-90s with a very hard slider and a lightning-quick arm.
19. Conner Uselton, OF, Southmoore (Moore, Oklahoma) High School
Uselton has looked better in the field and on the bases this spring, with some scouts giving him a chance to stay in center, though there’s a good chance his bat will profile just fine in a corner. His hands load somewhat deep, and his swing is geared for power now, rather than contact.
20. Griffin Canning, RHP, UCLA
Canning has an unorthodox delivery, but he throws a lot of strikes with his 93-94 mph fastball and power slider. He was worked hard as a freshman swingman, however, and he’s walking guys at the highest rate of his college career.
21. Heliot Ramos, OF, Alfonso Casta Martinez (Maunabo, Puerto Rico) High School
Ramos has a very direct swing that should produce tons of contact and at least average power. He’s a plus runner with the arm strength to end up an all-around asset in center.
22. Hans Crouse, RHP, Dana Hills (Dana Point, California) High School
He has reliever risk due to his high-effort delivery, but Crouse has premium stuff and goes right after hitters. He helped himself when he touched 97 at the well-scouted National High School Invitational tournament in late March.
23. Calvin Mitchell, 1B, Rancho Bernardo (San Diego) High School
Mitchell is one of the best pure bats in the draft class, with a quiet approach and simple, left-handed swing. But like Pratto, he is limited to first base, and he probably doesn’t have the same power potential as Pratto.
24. Jake Burger, 3B, Missouri State
Berger has real power and rarely strikes out, though scouts think the power is ahead of his hit tool. He’s already at 16 homers this spring after hitting 21 last year and has walked more than he has punched out. He’s very likely to end up at first base.
25. Bubba Thompson, OF, McGill-Toolen (Mobile, Alabama) High School
Thompson is committed to the University of Alabama to play baseball and football, but he’s almost certainly going to be drafted high enough that it won’t matter. He’s an 80 runner with power and athleticism, but there are questions about how raw he is as a hitter right now.
26. Logan Warmoth, SS, North Carolina
Warmoth leads the Heels in most offensive categories, as the junior shortstop is showing more power and patience this season. The leading thought from scouts is that he’ll move to third or second but show enough pop to profile as a regular at either spot.
27. Nick Allen, SS, Francis Parker (San Diego) High School
The biggest knock on Allen is his size -- he’s maybe 5-foot-8 and maxed out -- but he’s a true shortstop who has hit everywhere he has played, and scouts love his style of play. He might end up in the second round because of his height and teams’ reluctance to pin their draft class on someone so undersized.
28. Garrett Mitchell, OF, Orange Lutheran (Orange, California) High School
Mitchell is one of the draft’s top athletes, a plus runner with bat speed and a live body, but questions around his ability to hit and whether diabetes will impact his durability have him seen as more of a sandwich-round pick.
29. Drew Waters, OF, Etowah (Woodstock, Georgia) High School,
The switch-hitting outfielder makes hard contact from both sides of the plate, with the arm and speed to have at least a good shot to stay in center field.
30. Hagen Danner, RHP/C, Huntington Beach (California) High School
Danner is a bat-first catcher who almost certainly moves off the position in pro ball, but he is also a power arm on the mound and probably has a better chance to reach the majors as a pitcher.
31. Steven Jennings, RHP, Dekalb County (Brush Creek, Tennessee) High School
Jennings tore his ACL in September while playing quarterback and came back midway through his school’s baseball season. His stuff has been inconsistent compared to last spring and summer.
32. Kyle Hurt, RHP, Torrey Pines (San Diego) High School
Hurt came back too soon from an ACL injury and has lost some velocity, but assuming the knee is the only problem, he’s a value play for teams that saw him last summer and fall as a probable mid-rotation starter.
33. Keston Hiura, DH/2B, UC Irvine
Hiura is another plus hit tool guy, but he always had a below-average arm that limited his potential positions, and now he isn't throwing at all because of injury.
34. Caden Lemons, RHP, Vestavia Hills (Alabama) High School
Lemons has already been up to 95-96 and remains very projectable with a long, skinny frame. He leads a strong pack of Alabama prep pitchers this year.
35. Blaine Knight, RHP, Arkansas
Knight had been cruising all year until Auburn lit him up on April 21 (eight runs in 2.1 innings, with four walks allowed). He’s a three-pitch guy with some violence in the delivery, and until this past weekend, he was among the few strong performers in the college pitching crop.
36. Nate Pearson, RHP, College of Central Florida
A transfer from FIU, Pearson is 6-foot-6 and gets on top of the ball well, so he’s throwing 92-94 at the bottom of the zone, but his secondary stuff is still below average.
37. Morgan Cooper, RHP, Texas
Cooper missed 2015 after Tommy John surgery and is now a fourth-year junior, with strong results this season and big downhill plane on a 93-95 mph fastball.
38. Tanner Houck, RHP, Missouri
Houck is a two-pitch guy with a reliever’s delivery. He has seen his performance drop this spring as his stuff has backed up a little bit.
39. Wil Crowe, RHP, South Carolina
Crowe also has his share of medical questions, including his own Tommy John surgery, and would probably be a top-20 pick if he had the same stuff and results with a clean health record.
40. Tanner Burns, RHP, Decatur (Alabama) High School
Burns has been 94-97 with a good curveball, but he’s also a 6-foot right-hander who’ll be 18 and five months on draft day, all of which combine to limit his ceiling and peg him as a reliever in many teams’ eyes.
41. Alex Lange, RHP, LSU
Lange misses bats with his mid-90s fastball and hard curveball, but it’s a violent delivery with a head whack, which limits his command and increases the odds that he ends up in the bullpen.
42. Adam Oviedo, SS, Alvarado (Texas) High School
Oviedo looks like he’ll outgrow shortstop, but he has the arm and footwork to be above average to plus at third base, with a short swing that has good loft for future power as well.
43. Ricardo de la Torre, SS, Puerto Rico Baseball Academy (Gurabo, Puerto Rico)
De la Torre is one of the few true shortstops in the draft class, with a good chance to stay at the position given his arm and quickness, but he’ll need some help with consistency and footwork, and his bat is not advanced right now.
44. Ryan Vilade, SS, Stillwater (Oklahoma) High School
Vilade, the son of Oklahoma State assistant coach James Vilade, plays short now but will move to third base in pro ball, where his plus raw power will make him a good regular as long as he hits enough to get to it.
45. Shane Baz, RHP, Concordia Lutheran (Tomball, Texas) High School
Baz has touched 98 with a good slider, but there is concern about the delivery and how well hitters seem to see his fastball.
46. MJ Melendez, C, Westminster Christian (Miami) High School
Melendez can really throw, and some folks think he’ll end up a plus receiver -- I’m on the fence -- but his bat wrap means he doesn’t make a ton of contact right now to go with his power.
47. Luis Campusano-Bracero, C, Cross Creek (Augusta, Georgia) High School
Campusano-Bracero cleaned his body up substantially over the winter and has run up the board in a year that has very few significant catching prospects.
48. Alex Scherff, RHP, Colleyville Heritage (Colleyville, Texas) High School
Scherff is 91-94 with some late life, can spin a good curveball and at least has a changeup now, so the arsenal is there for him to start, though the short stride in his delivery is a potential risk factor for him to end up in the bullpen.
49. Jacob Heatherly, LHP, Cullman (Alabama) High School
Heatherly came into the year as a possible first-rounder but has been more 89-93 this year and struggled with command, though he can still get some angle on his slurvy breaking ball. He might be a good value target for a team looking to overpay in the second.
50. Cordell Dunn, C, Center Hill (Olive Branch, Mississippi) High School
Dunn is very strong and has a plus arm. He needs work on receiving, but he hits with wood in games and has a very good, simple swing, which should balance out concerns about the atrocious track record of high school bats coming out of Mississippi.