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Re-drafting the first round of 2006 MLB draft

Long Beach State star Evan Longoria and dominant University of Missouri pitcher Max Scherzer were among the prominent names taken in the 2006 draft. Getty Images

The 2006 MLB draft wasn't considered very good at the time it took place, but it has given us four legitimate stars -- three of them still on major-league rosters -- and plenty of players who've produced some significant big league value. It doesn't match the production of the great 2005 draft class, which already has produced five 30-WAR players and seems likely to end up with two or three more, but that '05 class was seen as great on draft day and hasn't disappointed.

This re-draft is based on two major criteria: the players' careers to date and my projections of value they still have to offer (though the list does include players whose careers are likely over). I did not account for the players' signability at the time, nor did I consider a team's preference for high school or college players, pitchers versus position players, etc. In other words, this analysis is based purely on talent. Unlike the 2005 re-draft, the first overall pick from 2006, pitcher Luke Hochevar, did not make the list of the top 30 players from the draft crop; he highlights my look at the 2006 draft first-round misses. (By the way, you can see my past re-drafts for 2005, 2004, 2003 and 2002 as well.)

This ranking includes only players who were drafted and signed in 2006. That means some well-known major leaguers, such as Paul Goldschmidt and Mike Leake, who were drafted that year but didn't sign, aren't eligible for this list. Their day will come.

On to the re-drafted first round of the 2006 draft:


1. Clayton Kershaw, LHP
Highland Park HS (Dallas)
WAR to date: 49.6

Clayton KershawThe Tigers were leaning toward taking Kershaw at pick No. 6, only to have the sort-of-consensus No. 1 talent Andrew Miller fall to them and make them call an audible on draft day. I think it's more fair to say that, at the time, the draft lacked a clear No. 1 (like this year's draft), and Kershaw had had a very poor showing in his final high school outing, which may have scared several teams, including the Tigers, off him for fear something wasn't right physically. Obviously, that was the Dodgers' gain. Now we'll hear every Texas high school lefty with a good curveball compared to Kershaw for the next 30 years.

Kershaw's actual draft spot: No. 7 overall (Dodgers)
Royals' actual '06 pick: Luke Hochevar, RHP, Tennessee


2. Evan Longoria, 3B
Long Beach State
WAR to date: 43.0

Evan LongoriaI thought Longoria could hit but wouldn't stay at shortstop and probably wouldn't have the power for a corner position. Within a year of the draft, however, Longoria had shown his light power numbers in college were the product of his environments, both the wood-bat Cape Cod League and at Long Beach State (their home field might as well be at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean), and by the end of the 2007 season, I considered him the best prospect in baseball.

My understanding from that time was that if the Rockies hadn't taken Stanford right-hander Greg Reynolds with the second pick, they would have taken Longoria.

Longoria's actual draft spot: No. 3 overall (Rays)
Rockies' actual '06 pick: Greg Reynolds, RHP, Stanford


3. Max Scherzer, RHP
Missouri
WAR to date: 31.8

Max ScherzerScherzer had some minor arm issues his junior year at Mizzou -- I believe it was biceps tendinitis, which could mean just about anything in the vernacular of injury reports -- and several teams took him off their draft board due to medical concerns. Had he been healthy all spring, he would probably have been the first or second pick, but I can't blame teams for passing on him given his violent delivery of the time and the threat of shoulder trouble. Of course, it was Reynolds, the second overall pick, who blew out his shoulder, while Scherzer cleaned up his delivery in the minors and became one of the best starters in baseball, and he's still going strong at age 31.

Scherzer's actual draft spot: No. 11 overall (Diamondbacks)
Rays' actual '06 pick: Evan Longoria


4. Chris Davis, 3B/1B/OF
Navarro College
WAR to date: 15.9

Chris DavisDavis was an unheralded hitting prospect out of Navarro JC in Texas, an athletic power hitter with a questionable hit tool and uncertain position, having played first, third and the outfield, while also occasionally closing. The Rangers' first three picks (they didn't have a second-rounder) all failed to reach the majors, but Davis reached the majors in just over two years, gave the Rangers a little production, then went to Baltimore in a trade for Koji Uehara.

Davis' actual draft spot: Fifth round/148th overall (Rangers)
Pirates' actual '06 pick: Brad Lincoln, RHP, Houston


5. Chris Archer, RHP
Clayton (NC) HS
WAR to date: 9.0

Chris ArcherArcher was a raw prep arm out of a rural high school outside of Raleigh, North Carolina, where he struggled to throw strikes even against bad competition. Some teams also were concerned that Archer's parents were out of the picture; he was adopted and raised by his maternal grandmother and her husband. But Cleveland area scout Bob Mayer believed in the 17-year-old senior's makeup and athleticism, and pounded the table for the team to take the kid in the fifth round, even though many teams thought it was an overdraft and felt Archer was better suited to be a draft-and-follow.

The Indians traded Archer and two other prospects to the Cubs after the 2008 season for Mark DeRosa, following a season in which Archer walked 84 batters in 115 innings. The Cubs would send him to the Rays in January 2011 in the Matt Garza trade, but in between those two deals, the light started to come on for Archer, who was repeating his delivery more effectively and had cut his walk rate by a third. He was second in the AL in strikeouts and strikeout rate in 2015 and is still improving.

Archer's actual draft spot: Fifth round/161st overall (Indians)
Mariners' actual '06 pick: Brandon Morrow, RHP, California


6. Josh Reddick, OF
Middle Georgia College
WAR to date: 17.3

Josh ReddickLongtime Braves and Red Sox scout Rob English drafted Reddick as a first-year guy out of Middle Georgia College -- also known as the alma mater of Glenn Davis and fantasy baseball Hall of Famer Kal Daniels -- after Reddick went undrafted out of high school in 2005. Reddick went right to low Class A in 2007 and had little trouble hitting until he reached Triple-A, eventually stalling long enough for the Red Sox to trade him to Oakland for Andrew Bailey. Now 29, Reddick's start to 2016 is one of the best stretches of his career, and he's set to be one of the most valuable free agents this offseason.

Reddick's actual draft spot: 17th round/523rd overall (Red Sox)
Tigers' actual '06 pick: Andrew Miller, LHP, North Carolina


7. Tim Lincecum, RHP
Washington
WAR to date: 22.9

Tim LincecumYou might argue for Lincecum to go higher because he delivered so much value so quickly; he signed on June 30, 2006, was in the majors less than 11 months later, and won the NL Cy Young Award in 2008 and 2009. Lincecum certainly should have been drafted higher than 10th overall, but there were so many things to pick apart that several teams backed off: He's undersized, his delivery is really unorthodox, he was basically a two-pitch guy (fastball/curveball) in college, he walked a lot of guys for the Huskies (216 batters in 342 collegiate innings, according to Baseball Cube), and he had a hard time keeping his delivery together deep into starts. The Huskies also wore him out, having him frequently start on Friday and close on Sunday or Tuesday. Yet Lincecum never broke down or so much as missed a start, and once he got into pro ball, he added a changeup and then a slider to become the best starter in the National League for the first two full years of his career. It looks like it's over now, or close to it, but from 2007-2011 he generated over 25 WAR, with a 2.98 ERA and 1,127 strikeouts over 1,028 innings.

Lincecum's actual draft spot: 10th overall (Giants)
Dodgers' actual '06 pick: Clayton Kershaw


8. Daniel Murphy, IF
Jacksonville Univ.
WAR to date: 14.1

Daniel MurphyMurphy was a junior at Jacksonville University when the Mets took him in the 13th round, although it's hard to imagine a player who did what he did there -- .398/.470/.534 line, with 34 walks and just 13 strikeouts in more than 260 plate appearances for the Dolphins -- lasting that long today. Mike Vorkunov wrote a good story on the Mets' drafting of Murphy that I won't even try to top, but it's a great story of coordination between an area scout, Steve Barningham, who believed in a player, and an analyst, Adam Fisher, who backed him.

Murphy's actual draft spot: 13th round/394th overall (Mets)
Reds' actual '06 pick: Drew Stubbs, CF, Texas


9. Jeff Samardzija, RHP
Notre Dame
WAR to date: 8.7

Jeff SamardzijaSamardzija might be 31, but he has been an effective big leaguer only since his age-27 season, so I'm much more sanguine about him moving up this list going forward as any player on here other than Archer. The Cubs gave up three draft picks for signing free agents in the 2005-06 offseason, so after their first pick (Clemson outfielder Tyler Colvin, which was considered a reach on draft day), they didn't pick again until the fifth round, where they went big, taking Samardzija out of Notre Dame, where he was better known as a wide receiver on the gridiron than as a pitcher. It looked like an enormous flop until 2012, when Samardzija showed up to spring training a completely different pitcher, with a delivery he could repeat, newfound command and a sharper slider.

Samardzija's actual draft spot: Fifth round/149th overall (Cubs)
Orioles' actual '06 pick: Bill Rowell, 3B, Bishop Eustace Prep (Pennsauken Township, New Jersey)


10. Doug Fister, RHP
Fresno State
WAR to date: 19.3

Doug FisterFister might be done, or at least appears to be done, adding value as a major league starter, but he had a strong five-year run as an above-average starter, peaking in 2013 and '14 as one of the top 25 or so starters in the game. Fister was drafted three times, once out of junior college by the Giants in the 49th round in 2003, again out of Fresno State by the Yankees in the seventh round in '05 and finally by the Mariners in 2006.

Fister's actual draft spot: Seventh round/201st overall (Mariners)
Giants' actual '06 pick: Tim Lincecum


11. Chris Tillman, RHP
Fountain Valley (California) HS
WAR to date: 11.3

Chris TillmanTillman was your standard projection high school right-hander from Southern California, the kind of player teams love to take in the second round because they've scouted those kids a ton and the area produces a lot of big leaguers. Of course, the Mariners never reaped the benefits of this pick; they included Tillman in a package that also included Adam Jones to get Erik Bedard. Tillman has developed into a mainstay in the Orioles' rotation and is currently enjoying a bounce-back from a dismal 2015 season, and he's still two years away from turning 30.

Tillman's actual draft spot: Second round/49th overall (Mariners)
Diamondbacks' actual '06 pick: Max Scherzer


12. Mat Latos, RHP
Broward College
WAR to date: 14.1

Mat LatosLatos was one of the last draft-and-follow guys, the old system in which a team could select a high school player who was headed to junior college or a first-year junior college player, then retain that player's signing rights until one week before the following year's draft. The idea for the teams was to put in a claim on the player, then scout him more heavily the following spring than they might have scouted a player whose rights they didn't control, after which they would make a decision on whether to offer him a larger deal. The system produced some great players, but obviously tilted the balance of power toward the teams. Latos was a slightly different case, a potential high-round pick out of high school in the spring of 2006 who fell due to chronic questions about his makeup, especially his maturity. Rather than sign, he went to Broward College in Florida and had a strong enough year in terms of performance and stuff that the Padres gave him first-round money, $1.25 million, rather than let him go back into the 2007 draft, when he probably would have been taken among the top 30 picks. Unfortunately, his performance in the past year-plus doesn't give me much hope for his future production.

Latos' actual draft spot: 11th round/333rd overall (Padres)
Rangers' actual '06 pick: Kasey Kiker, LHP, Russell County HS (Seale, Alabama)


13. Dellin Betances, RHP
Progress HS (Brooklyn, New York)
WAR to date: 7.4

Dellin BetancesBetances was a known quantity before the draft, seen more as a second- or third-round talent who wanted first-round money. The Yankees took him out of Brooklyn's Progress High School and signed him for $1 million, but his progress was slowed by elbow surgery and general command problems when the Yankees tried to develop him as a starter. After his conversion to relief in mid-2013, Betances has become one of the greatest strikeout pitchers in the game's history, in a class with Aroldis Chapman, Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen. Relievers don't last very long as a general rule, but for now Betances is about as valuable as any reliever can be.

Betances' actual draft spot: Eighth round/254th overall (Yankees)
Cubs' actual '06 pick: Tyler Colvin, OF, Clemson


14. David Robertson, RHP
Alabama
WAR to date: 12.1

David RobertsonThe 2006 draft was Damon Oppenheimer's second as the Yankees' scouting director, and it produced 10 players who signed and reached the majors, seven who were more than just up-and-down guys and five who were good enough to be considered for this list. Robertson was hiding in plain sight, a draft-eligible sophomore at the University of Alabama who'd been a bit better as a freshman than a sophomore, with a plus curveball that was good enough to overcome the bias against short right-handers. He reached the majors less than two years after signing and defied the odds by giving the Yankees five straight seasons of 60-plus innings as a reliever before leaving as a free agent.

Robertson's actual draft spot: 17th round/524th overall (Yankees)
Blue Jays' actual '06 pick: Travis Snider, OF, Henry M. Jackson HS (Mill Creek, Washington)


15. Ian Kennedy, RHP
USC
WAR to date: 10.2

Ian KennedyKennedy was a super-polished 6-foot right-hander with an average fastball and a changeup as his best pitch. Even with a long track record behind him, he wasn't a slam-dunk first-rounder and lasted till the 21st pick, where the Yankees, who generally don't go for this type of player, drafted him and got him to the majors in just over a year. They would give up on him after a couple of very poor stints in the big league rotation. Kennedy found himself in Arizona, which seemed like a poor fit for his fly ball tendency and light fastball, and has bounced from average starter to outright disaster and back, currently pitching like the former for the Royals.

By the way, that Yankees draft in 2006 also included Mark Melancon (7.1 WAR to date), Joba Chamberlain (7.8), George Kontos (2.3) and Zach McAllister (1.4).

Kennedy's actual draft spot: 21st overall (Yankees)
Nationals' actual '06 pick: Chris Marrero, 3B, Monsignor Edward Pace HS (Miami Gardens, Florida)


16. Jon Jay, OF
Miami
WAR to date: 11.5

Jon JayI thought Jay was a bit of a reach when he was taken in the second round, as he looked like a tweener in the outfield, lacking the defense for center or the power for a corner. He developed into a capable glove in center, but more importantly showed he was a better hitter for average than I anticipated. (In his defense, he did hit .378/.475/.521 at Miami and played for Team USA, so I was just way off here.) The Cards took their time with Jay -- he didn't reach the majors until 2010 -- but had several years for them as a solid regular before falling off in 2015. The Cards needed to make room for Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty, so they traded him to San Diego, where he seems to have returned to his former self.

Jay's actual draft spot: Second round/74th pick (Cardinals)
Brewers' actual '06 pick: Jeremy Jeffress, RHP, Halifax County HS (South Boston, Virginia)


17. Andrew Miller, LHP
North Carolina
WAR to date: 3.0

Andrew MillerMiller was the closest thing this draft had to a consensus No. 1 prospect, and as I noted above, the Tigers didn't expect him to be there when they picked sixth. If he hadn't been, they might have taken Kershaw. Miller was regularly up to 97 mph as a starter for UNC, with a wipeout slider that was frequently out of the strike zone, so he'd get chases from college hitters. But the formula didn't work as well when the Tigers ran him up the ladder shortly after he signed. (I saw Miller for Team USA and on the Cape; the only opposing hitter I saw lay off that slider was Virginia Commonwealth infielder Scott Sizemore, whom the Tigers took in the fifth round.) Miller was shipped off to the Marlins in December 2007 in the Miguel Cabrera trade, flopped as a starter there, and was well into negative-WAR territory until the Red Sox signed him and made him a reliever in 2012. Since then, he's at 6.2 career WAR and still going strong.

Miller's actual draft spot: No. 6 overall (Tigers)
Padres' actual '06 pick: Matt Antonelli, IF, Wake Forest


18. David Freese, 3B
South Alabama
WAR to date: 9.9

David FreeseWorld Series hero Freese was undrafted as a junior out of the University of South Alabama and ended up drafted by the Padres as a 23-year-old senior in 2006. He was traded to the Cardinals 18 months later for Jim Edmonds, who gave San Diego 26 games of a .231 wOBA before he was released five weeks into his only season with the team. The Cardinals, probably mindful of Freese's age, jumped him right from high-A to Triple-A, and had him in the majors in 2009. He's 33 now and on the decline, but is in the midst of a productive enough season and probably will play a few more years before hanging it up. For you trivia buffs, Freese is just the sixth-best player (by WAR) ever drafted from South Alabama, behind Luis Gonzalez, Lance Johnson, Jon Lieber, Juan Pierre and Adam Lind.

Freese's actual draft spot: Ninth round/273rd overall (Padres)
Phillies' actual '06 pick: Kyle Drabek, RHP, The Woodlands (Texas) HS


19. Desmond Jennings, OF
Itawamba Community College
WAR to date: 12.2

Desmond JenningsCleveland took Jennings in the 18th round in 2005 as a draft-and-follow, but didn't sign him, so the Rays were able to take him in the 10th round in '06, sign him immediately and move him aggressively to full-season ball in 2007. He was tooled-up and had good instincts, but since he has reached the majors, he has fallen short of expectations, in part because he has had trouble staying healthy. He's just 29 but has been a cipher this year, as it looks like injuries and the turf have taken their toll on his legs.

Jennings' actual draft spot: 10th round/289th overall (Rays)
Marlins' actual '06 pick: Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Missouri State


20. Joe Smith, RHP
Wright State
WAR to date: 10.3

Joe SmithA sidearming right-handed reliever out of Wright State, Smith went to Cleveland in the Roberto Alomar trade after 2008, then signed with the Angels as a free agent after 2013. He actually has defied a lot of folks' expectations, mine included, by limiting left-handed batters to a .246/.340/.363 line (low-slot right-handers tend to be vulnerable to lefty hitters).

Smith's actual draft spot: Third round/94th overall (Mets)
Twins' actual '06 pick: Chris Parmelee, OF, Chino Hills (California) HS


21. Alex Cobb, RHP
Vero Beach (Florida) HS
WAR to date: 9.3

Alex CobbCobb is on his way back from Tommy John surgery, which has had him out of the majors since 2014, but he had a sub-3 ERA over his last 300 innings before he blew out. He was an older senior, a two-sport guy who also played quarterback and was committed to Clemson before the Rays signed him, and he followed the mold of Jeremy Hellickson, another command right-hander the Rays took with an early pick a year earlier.

Cobb's actual draft spot: Fourth round/109th overall (Rays)
Yankees' actual '06 pick: Ian Kennedy


22. Zach Britton, LHP
Weatherford (Texas) HS
WAR to date: 6.3

Zach BrittonBritton was a projection lefty with arm strength but not much secondary stuff in high school, and he walked more than he struck out in his pro debut that summer. I still wish he'd gotten another chance as a starter once he returned to health after some shoulder troubles, but he's dynamite in relief, and I'm guessing this is where he stays going forward.

Britton's actual draft spot: Third round/85th overall (Orioles)
Nationals/Expos actual '06 pick: Colton Willems, RHP, John Carroll Catholic HS (Fort Pierce, Florida)


23. Hector Santiago, LHP
Okaloosa-Walton College
WAR to date: 7.2

Hector SantiagoSantiago was born in New Jersey, went to Okaloosa-Walton College in Niceville, Florida (not to be confused with Noiceville, which is where Logjammer D'Baggagecling grew up), and never really pitched exceptionally well in four-plus seasons in the minors. But now he owns a career 3.59 ERA in 574 major league innings, and has somehow beaten his FIP mark -- that is, his ERA has been well below what you'd predict from his peripherals -- in all four of his full seasons in the majors.

Santiago's actual draft spot: 30th round/915th overall (White Sox)
Astros' actual '06 pick: Maxwell Sapp, C, Bishop Moore Catholic HS (Orlando)


24. Brett Anderson, LHP
Stillwater (Oklahoma) HS
WAR to date: 8.0

Brett AndersonAnderson was well-known in high school because his father, Frank, was Oklahoma State's head coach at the time, so while the young lefty was usually in the upper 80s, he had good off-speed stuff and scouts felt comfortable with his feel to pitch. Anderson has been hurt a lot in the majors, going to Oakland in the Dan Haren trade and enjoying his best season yet in 2015 with the Dodgers, and he's now out for half of 2016 due to a back injury. He has been good when healthy, though, and is still just 28 years old.

Anderson's actual draft spot: Second round/55th overall (Diamondbacks)
Braves' actual '06 pick: Cody Johnson, 1B, A. Crawford Mosley HS (Lynn Haven, Florida)


25. Trevor Cahill, RHP
Vista (California) HS
WAR to date: 9.8

Trevor CahillThe A's took many folks in the industry by surprise by taking a high-school pitcher in Cahill with their first pick in 2006 (they didn't have a first-rounder). They had taken prep arms the year before, none of whom panned out, but led their draft with two college bats. Cahill was a California prep kid committed to Dartmouth and may have been taken higher had he not been committed to such a good academic school. The A's dealt him to Arizona in exchange for Jarrod Parker and two lesser prospects just as his velocity as a starter was starting to slip. He has since reinvented himself a little as a short reliever, throwing harder than he has since he was a prospect but with poor control so far in 2016.

Cahill's actual draft spot: Second round/66th overall (Athletics)
Angels' actual '06 pick: Hank Conger, C, Huntington Beach (California) HS


26. Justin Turner, IF
Cal State Fullerton
WAR to date: 9.6

Justin TurnerTurner, a shortstop at Cal State Fullerton who profiled better at second base in pro ball due to his lack of speed and below-average arm, was a senior-sign after being taken in the seventh round by the Reds, a year after the Yankees took him in the 29th round. He was just a "25th man" through his age-28 season, bouncing to the Orioles and Mets before signing with the Dodgers in February 2014 as a free agent, only to hit .314/.384/.492 in the past two seasons and generate over 80 percent of his career WAR during the span. So far in 2016, he has hit more in line with his previous career, so maybe that was it, but for a seventh-rounder, he had quite a peak.

Turner's actual draft spot: Seventh round/204th overall (Reds)
Dodgers' actual '06 pick: Bryan Morris, RHP, Motlow State CC


27. Derek Holland, LHP
Wallace State CC
WAR to date: 9.1

Derek HollandHolland was another draft-and-follow, signing in May of 2007 out of Wallace State Community College in Alabama and reaching the big leagues less than two years later. He has been an injury-riddled mess the past three seasons but gave the Rangers three solid years as a league-average starter before that, and since he's left-handed, I imagine he'll get another half-dozen chances to get healthy before he's forced to hang 'em up.

Holland's actual draft spot: 25th round/748th overall (Rangers)
Red Sox's actual '06 pick: Jason Place, OF, Wren HS (Piedmont, South Carolina)


28. Justin Masterson, RHP
San Diego State
WAR to date: 9.1

Justin MastersonMasterson was a starter at NAIA-level Bethel College for his first two years, then went to the Cape Cod League, where he was 93-96 with a sharp slider, and promptly found himself with a bevy of offers from Division 1 schools, eventually transferring to San Diego State. His stuff backed up a bit when he was starting, but his low arm slot gave him a lot of sink, and he was a strong ground ball pitcher even at 88-90.

The Red Sox had two picks in the first round and two in the sandwich round, but none fared as well as Masterson. He went to Cleveland in the Victor Martinez trade and had several solid years in their rotation and has absolutely dominated right-handed hitters in his career, especially in terms of power, holding them to a .310 slugging percentage. He had arthroscopic surgery in the fall and will attempt a comeback at age 31 with the Pirates this year. He holds the distinction of being the only pitcher in MLB history born in Jamaica, and one of only four big leaguers total.

Masterson's actual draft spot: Second round/71st overall (Red Sox)
Red Sox's actual '06 pick: Daniel Bard, RHP, North Carolina


29. Kris Medlen, RHP
Santa Ana College
WAR to date: 8.6

Kris MedlenMedlen has had two Tommy John surgeries and is currently out with rotator cuff inflammation, but when he has been healthy, he has been very good, including a historically great season in 2012, when he posted a 1.57 ERA in 138 innings; only three pitchers have thrown at least that many innings with a lower ERA since MLB lowered the mounds in 1969, and two of those guys -- Dwight Gooden and Greg Maddux -- won Cy Young Awards. (The other was Jim Kern, who threw 143 innings in 71 relief appearances in 1979 and then threw 93 innings total the next two years around injuries.)

Medlen's actual draft spot: 10th round/310th overall (Braves)
White Sox's actual '06 pick: Kyle McCulloch, RHP, Texas


30. Jarrod Dyson, OF
Southwest Mississippi CC
WAR to date: 9.9

Jarrod DysonI think Dyson is the lowest pick I've ever included in a re-draft, and he's easily the worst hitter I've ever included; he has a career .253/.318/.339 line, with a .293 wOBA. But Dyson does two things well: steal bases and play defense. It takes the right organization to extract value from a player like Dyson, especially in the era of the four-man bench, but the Royals have done so and made Dyson a valuable tactical weapon in their last two playoff runs. I still could never see myself taking a player like Dyson with a first-round pick, but the stats don't lie: 152 stolen bases at an 86 percent success rate, plus 47 (Defensive Runs Saved) or 48 (Ultimate Zone Rating) runs saved on defense add up to a lot of production.

Dyson's actual draft spot: 50th round/1,475th overall (Royals)
Cardinals' actual '06 pick: Adam Ottavino, RHP, Northeastern