Last year I went back 10 years and redrafted the 2002 MLB Rule 4 draft, one made famous by the book "Moneyball" and by the Pirates' insistence on taking a player they projected as a No. 3 starter with the top pick. In the same vein, I've gone back to 2003 this year and redrafted the group, again finding that the top player wasn't a first-rounder at the time, while again finding that the player taken first overall hasn't turned out to be among the 30 best prospects in the crop.
This redraft is based on two major criteria: the players' careers to date, and my projections of any value they still have to offer (although the list does include two players whose careers are likely over). I did not account for the player's signability at the time, nor did I consider a team's preference for high school or college players, pitchers versus position players, etc. -- this analysis is based purely on talent.
Please note that we included only players who were drafted in 2003 and subsequently signed with the club that selected them. Players like Tim Lincecum or Max Scherzer, for example, who were drafted out of high school but decided to attend college, were not considered. The Cubs took Lincecum in the 48th round and the Cardinals took Scherzer in the 23rd. The Rays took four players who were drafted later by other teams and became better than replacement-level big leaguers: Kris Medlen (37th round), Wade LeBlanc (36th round), Jared Hughes (16th round) and Adam Ottavino (30th round).
Also of note is that certain teams did not have a first-round pick in 2003 because they lost it by virtue of signing a Type A free agent. Cleveland, Arizona and Kansas City, on the other hand, each had two first-rounders; Cleveland also had pick No. 31 in the sandwich round, but none of the three players the team selected with those top picks panned out.
1. Tampa Bay Rays
Matt Kemp | CF, Midwest City (Okla.) HS
Kemp isn't the WAR leader in this draft class, but has youth on his side and explosive potential that no one in this class can match, as long as he can return himself to the form and health that made him the NL's (lower-case) most valuable player in 2011. With roughly 20 WAR to date in both common systems, Kemp is comfortably in the top six already, but is the only player I see from this draft who still has the potential to post a 7-WAR season in the remainder of his career.
Kemp's actual draft spot: No. 181 (sixth round, Dodgers)
Tampa Bays '03 pick: Delmon Young, OF, Adolfo Camarillo HS (Camarillo, Calif.)
2. Milwaukee Brewers
Ian Kinsler | 2B, Missouri
Kinsler's junior year at Missouri was marred by injuries, so he wasn't even the first or second player taken from his team, but he has turned out to be the most productive players from that draft through the first 10 years. Never a great defender, Kinsler turned himself into a passable one for a few years before age started to catch up with him, and the seemingly inevitable move to first or left field will further hurt his future value. It's a stretch to see any other college player from this draft matching his career production.
Kinsler's actual draft spot: No. 496 (17th round, Rangers)
Milwaukee's '03 pick: Rickie Weeks, 2B, Southern
3. Detroit Tigers
Aaron Hill | 2B, LSU
Full disclosure: I worked for the Blue Jays at the time and was in the draft room that year, part of the process that led to this selection (but by no means was the decision-maker or close to it). Our scouting coordinator at the time, Jon Lalonde, mentioned to me before the college season started that year that Hill was his personal favorite for our pick in June, a prescient call not just on the selection but on Hill's career, as he's turned himself into a very good defender at second who's been very productive around injuries.
Hill's actual draft spot: No. 13 (first round, Blue Jays)
Detroit's '03 pick: Kyle Sleeth, RHP, Wake Forest
4. San Diego Padres
Nick Markakis | OF, Young Harris College
Many teams had Markakis rated more highly as a pitcher because of the perceived value of a lefty with mid-90s velocity and some feel for his breaking stuff, but the Orioles saw him as a hitter all the way and for a while it looked like a tremendous call. Markakis' power has just never developed as expected, and while he's somewhat patient it's not enough to offset the lack of extra-base hits. I thought two years ago that perhaps he just needed a change of scenery, but the regime changed in Baltimore and if anything he's been a little worse. That said, relative to the company he's provided some value.
Markakis' actual draft spot: No. 7 (first round, Orioles)
San Diego's '03 pick: Tim Stauffer, RHP, Richmond
5. Kansas City Royals
Michael Bourn | CF, Houston
The Phillies were more involved in the market for college players in the early 2000s, finding a gem in Bourn because his plus-plus speed eventually translated into plus-plus defense in center, just as the industry has started to improve its understanding of the value of a good glove. I've expressed concerns before about Bourn aging poorly because so much of his value is tied up in his legs, but he's already delivered about 20 wins above replacement and could sneak up close to 30 if his body ages well.
Bourn's actual draft spot: No. 115 (fourth round, Phillies)
Kansas City's '03 pick: Chris Lubanski, OF, Kennedy-Kenrick Catholic HS (Norristown, Pa.)
6. Chicago Cubs
Adam Jones | OF, Morse HS (San Diego)
Jones was drafted as a shortstop and also was scouted on the mound, but finally found a home in center field before the Mariners traded him to Baltimore in the Erik Bedard fiasco. Jones' hot start last year didn't last, but he does seem to have reached his power peak and could produce more 4-5 WAR seasons going forward than anyone other than Kemp in this class. It's also worth considering whether Jones' pedestrian defensive numbers would look better had he been moved to right field a few years back.
Jones' actual draft spot: No. 37 (supplemental first round, Mariners)
Chicago's '03 pick: Ryan Harvey, OF, Dunedin (Fla.) HS
7. Baltimore Orioles
Andre Ethier | RF, Arizona State
The fact that we are already down to Ethier, who has spent his best years as just an average regular and now should be a platoon player, tells you a lot about this draft class -- or just about any draft class. Only the most exceptional drafts produce more than five or six stars, and a truly "good" draft is one that produces lots of regulars, because stars are so rare. This is also a way around saying much about Ethier, who is a pretty boring player and now can't hit lefties or do much in right field.
Ethier's actual draft spot: No. 62 (second round, A's)
Baltimore's '03 pick: Markakis
8. Pittsburgh Pirates
Chad Billingsley | RHP, Defiance (Ohio) HS
Billingsley is on the shelf for the year, but given the 80-85 percent success rate of Tommy John surgery, it's reasonable to think he might have a few good seasons left in him, maybe more.
He looked like he was on the verge of breaking into MLB's top 10 pitchers for about four years, but there were even signs then that his command was slipping, leading to a significant drop in his strikeout rate before he went down with a torn elbow ligament. Other than Kemp, Billingsley has the most remaining upside of the players on this list.
Billingsley's actual draft spot: No. 24 (first round, Dodgers)
Pittsburgh's '03 pick: Paul Maholm, LHP, Mississippi State
9. Texas Rangers
John Danks | LHP,
Danks looked like a fifth starter until he was traded to Chicago, where pitching coach Don Cooper gave him a cutter (more like a slider, at least visually) and turned him into a good No. 2 starter for four years before the wheels came off in 2012. Danks may be done as an effective big league starter, but the value he provided in those four years was substantial, and most teams would kill to get that from their first-round selection.
Danks' actual draft spot: No. 9 (first round, Rangers)
Texas' '03 pick: Danks, Round Rock (Texas) HS
10. Colorado Rockies
Matt Harrison | LHP, South Granville HS (Creedmoor, N.C.)
Harrison has yet to reach 10 WAR per FanGraphs or Baseball Reference, but also seems to have just started his peak period over the past two years, becoming a control/ground-ball guy who misses just enough bats to be good. A back injury has him out until midseason but, assuming that's not a career-altering condition, I think we'll see several more seasons like 2011-12 from him in the future.
Harrison's actual draft spot: No. 97 (third round, Braves)
Colorado's '03 pick: Ian Stewart, 3B, La Quinta HS (Westminster, Calif.)
11. Cleveland Indians
Jonathan Papelbon | RHP, Mississippi State
Papelbon is nearing the end of his run as a top-tier closer -- although you can bet the "proven closer" tag will stick to him for a while beyond that -- which provided a remarkable seven years of good value to the Red Sox and Phillies. I don't like spending high picks on closers -- though there was a belief in some quarters that Papelbon could start -- because their value is volatile and their peaks are often very short, but for a fourth-round selection this was enormous value for Boston.
Papelbon's actual draft spot: No. 114 (fourth round, Red Sox)
Cleveland's '03 pick: Michael Aubrey, 1B, Tulane
12. New York Mets
Rickie Weeks | 2B, Southern
Weeks played at Southern, which is in the worst Division I conference for baseball, and he did what a prospect of his caliber should do in that situation, hitting over .500 with stats beyond reproach. And he has the tools to be a superstar in the majors, including crazy bat speed and the ability to run.
But Weeks has never quite figured out the major league breaking ball, so while he can murder a fastball, he sees a lot of sliders and curveballs and his strikeout rate is now on pace for a career high. I am being stubborn when I say that I believe we haven't seen the last of the good version of Rickie Weeks, although he'll probably have those bounce-back years in Tampa Bay or Oakland.
Weeks' actual draft spot: No. 2 (first round, Brewers)
New York's '03 pick: Lastings Milledge, OF, Lakewood Ranch HS (Bradenton, Fla.)
13. Toronto Blue Jays
Scott Baker | RHP, Oklahoma State
The prototypical Twins pitching draft pick from the 2000s, Baker threw strikes with average stuff. I saw him in Double-A and saw a pretty flat fastball and no third pitch, but he eventually developed a slider and churned out several solid midrotation starter seasons before Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2012 season and, so far, his 2013 season as well. I don't think he can be close to that effective if the surgery cost him a few miles an hour, so there's at least some possibility he comes back as a fifth starter or worse. Even so it's a great return on a second-round pick.
Baker's actual draft spot: No. 58 (second round, Twins)
Toronto's '03 pick: Aaron Hill
14. Cincinnati Reds
Paul Maholm | LHP, Mississippi State
I thought at the time that Maholm was a bit of a reach at No. 8, drafted that high in large part because he was (still is, in fact) left-handed. He's never been a star and has had just a few seasons where you might argue he was above-average, but he's also been durable, racking up nearly 1,300 innings in his seven full seasons, never making fewer than 26 starts. He wasn't the eighth-best player in the draft class, but the Pirates did come closer to the mark than I thought at the time.
Maholm's actual draft spot: No. 8 (first round, Pirates)
Cincinnati's '03 pick: Ryan Wagner, RHP, Houston
15. Chicago White Sox
Shaun Marcum | RHP, Missouri State
Marcum was the shortstop and closer for Southwest Missouri State (which has since dropped the geographical part of its moniker) in 2003 when the Bears made their first-ever appearance in the College World Series.
He was drafted by the Jays, and I know our scouts at the time, including area scout Ty Nichols (now with the Cubs), believed strongly that Marcum could start despite his short stature, because he threw a ton of strikes and was very, very competitive. I also remember a draft room debate regarding Marcum, a reliever our guys believed could start, and Chris Ray of William and Mary, a college starter our guys believed had to go to the bullpen. Again, I can take minimal credit here, but our group made the right call even if, as I think now, Marcum is done as a major league starter. Maybe he can go back to short.
Marcum's actual draft spot: No. 80 (third round, Blue Jays)
Chicago's '03 pick: Brian Anderson, OF, Arizona
16. Miami Marlins
Sean Marshall | LHP, VCU
Marshall was a very effective starter at Virginia Commonwealth and was on our radar in Toronto in part because his performance was so good, but his slight frame had our scouts concerned that he couldn't start in the long run. That point was well-founded, but Marshall turned out to be one of the game's best lefty relievers, a non-specialist who could face more than one or two batters in an outing, although the Cubs didn't always use him optimally. They sold high on him after his career year in 2011 when they traded him to the Reds. He likely won't return that kind of value again.
Marshall's actual draft spot: No. 163 (sixth round, Cubs)
Miami's '03 pick:Jeff Allison, RHP, Veterans Memorial HS (Peabody, Mass.)
17. Boston Red Sox
Brendan Ryan | SS, Lewis & Clark State
A product of NAIA powerhouse Lewis & Clark State, which has prospered by taking players Division I schools can't or won't accept, Ryan has morphed into one of the game's best defensive shortstops and has never learned how to hit.
He had a fluky .290 average in 2009 but has hit .216/.284/.289 since then, canceling out a good chunk of the value he returned with his glove. Ryan is probably destined for backup duty for the remainder of his major league career.
Ryan's actual draft spot: No. 215 (seventh round, Cardinals)
Boston's '03 pick: David Murphy, OF, Baylor
18. Cleveland Indians*
David Murphy | OF, Baylor
The 2003 draft marked the start of the analytical era in Boston ushered in by Theo Epstein, and it showed in the Red Sox's draft class. It was also noticed in our draft room in Toronto, because it was clear the Red Sox were targeting a similar group of players to ours, with just slight variations in preferences.
Murphy was a big performer at Baylor who seemed to have some upside in the power department, but has instead turned into a very, very good fourth outfielder, faking center, playing well in both corners, and hitting right-handers well enough to be the strong side of a platoon. His WAR totals might be better had Texas given him more time off against lefties, and I think he could play another five years as a bench/platoon guy who can handle left or right.
Murphy's actual draft spot: No. 17 (first round, Red Sox)
Cleveland's '03 pick: Brad Snyder, OF, Ball State
*This pick was compensation from the Phillies for signing Jim Thome.
19. Arizona Diamondbacks
Carlos Quentin | OF, Stanford
Quentin needed Tommy John surgery at the time of the draft, so he slid to the back of the first round and went to Arizona, which had two first-round picks and was more willing to roll the dice on Quentin's elbow. He recovered well and quickly, after which the Diamondbacks quickly gave up on him, only to see him have a huge breakout season in 2008 that he's never repeated.
If you pick in the back half of the first round, are you happy with one star-caliber season and two or three seasons as a fringy regular? Probably not, but in reality, history says you should be. (Note: I wouldn't be happy either.)
Quentin's actual draft spot: No. 29 (first round, Diamondbacks)
Arizona's '03 pick: Conor Jackson, 1B, Cal
*This pick was compensation from the Mariners for signing Greg Colbrunn.
20. Washington Nationals (then Montreal Expos)
A.J. Ellis | C, Austin Peay
Teams usually take lots of catchers in later rounds of the draft to fill out their short-season rosters -- you need someone to catch the hard-throwing prospects you drafted in earlier rounds or whom you've just brought over from the Dominican Republic or Venezuela.
And once in a blue moon, one of those organizational catchers has enough plate discipline and good enough makeup to end up a big leaguer. In Ellis' case, he might even have a good five years left in him, which is why he's here over a few guys with higher WAR totals to date.
Ellis' actual draft spot: No. 541 (18th round, Dodgers)
Montreal's '03 pick: Chad Cordero, RHP, Cal-State Fullerton
21. Minnesota Twins
Scott Feldman | RHP, College of San Mateo
Feldman has remade himself over the past few years into a cutter guy who rarely throws anything straight and avoids free passes, with a career-low walk rate last year and a strong ability to induce popups, which comes from throwing an effective cutter in on hitters' hands.
His basic peripherals last year said he was better than his 5-plus ERA indicated, but the high line-drive rate contradicts that somewhat, and I think his true talent level is somewhere in the 1.5-2 WAR range; at age 30, he's young enough to have several more of those years, kind of like a better version of Doug Davis.
Feldman's actual draft spot: No. 886 (30th round, Rangers)
Minnesota's '03 pick: Matt Moses, 3B, Mills E Godwin HS (Richmond, Va.)
22. San Francisco Giants
Sean Rodriguez | SS, Braddock HS (Miami)
Rodriguez is a very good utility infielder, a plus defender at second who isn't awful at short and can handle most other positions, with a little speed and a little patience and not a whole lot of anything else. He has generated only a little over 7 WAR (per Baseball Reference) to date, but at 28 could spend the next five years as a utility infielder or even as someone's starting second baseman for parts of various seasons.
Rodriguez's actual draft spot: No. 90 (third round, Angels)
San Francisco's '03 pick: David Aardsma, RHP, Rice
*This pick was compensation from the Astros for signing Jeff Kent.
23. Los Angeles Angels
Jarrod Saltalamacchia | C, Royal Palm Beach (Fla.) HS
Saltalamacchia was probably better known for marrying one of his high school teachers than he was for his baseball abilities until he got to Boston before the 2011 season. Since then, he's shown himself to be a solid platoon backstop, hitting for power against right-handers, although he's as useful as a broken clock against lefties. As long as he can catch, he'll find work, and could generate more than 1 WAR per year well into his 30s.
Saltalamacchia's actual draft spot: No. 36 (supplemental first round, Braves)
Los Angeles' '03 pick: Brandon Wood, SS, Horizon HS (Scottsdale, Ariz.)
24. Los Angeles Dodgers
Mike Aviles | SS, Concordia College
Aviles was one of five college seniors the Royals drafted and signed for $1,000 bonuses in rounds five through nine that year in an effort to save money. Aviles paid off in a big way with a huge rookie year in 2008 that accounts for more than half of the value he's produced as a big leaguer.
That year included some outlier defensive numbers that never passed the eye test, as he's stretched at shortstop and is much better suited to second. He's a decent if not ideal utility infielder because he can handle several positions but is allergic to drawing walks.
Aviles' actual draft spot: No. 192 (seventh round, Royals)
Los Angeles' '03 pick: Chad Billingsley
25. Oakland Athletics
Daric Barton | 1B, Marina HS (Huntington Beach, Calif.)
Another hypothetical for you: If your late first-round pick's entire career comprised of just one year as a regular, but that year put him among the 10 or 15 most valuable players in your league, would you be happy with the pick? That's Barton, who had a .393 OBP with stellar defense in 2010, but has barely been above replacement level in the rest of his career.
Based on the typical WAR production you get from a first-rounder, it's a good return, but I have a hard time separating that from the emotional response that it just doesn't feel like it's enough for a first-round pick. That emotional response is why I like going through this exercise.
Barton's actual draft spot: No. 28 (first round, Cardinals)
Oakland's '03 pick: Brad Sullivan, RHP, Houston
26. Oakland Athletics*
Ryan Roberts | INF, UT-Arlington
A senior who signed for a grand out of UT-Arlington, Roberts was an immediate favorite in Toronto's player development department because, in the words of his first pro trainer Tommy Craig, "He plays like his hair's on fire."
He's not disciplined but he can crush a mistake, and you can live with his defense at third or second over short stretches. That produced one great season in 2011, a solid one in 2009, and a bunch of fringy years. He's still going and might scrape out another decent season or two. Not bad for a guy who had just 31 major league plate appearances before his 28th birthday.
Roberts' actual draft spot: No. 530 (18th round, Blue Jays)
Oakland's '03 pick: Brian Snyder, 3B, Stetson
*This pick was compensation from the Giants for signing Ray Durham.
27. New York Yankees
Tom Gorzelanny | LHP, Triton JC
Gorzelanny came out of a junior college and, if memory serves me correctly, had some minor arm trouble there that pushed him down our draft board a little in Toronto. He gave the Pirates about a year and a half of quality starting work before the disastrous 2008 campaign that had him worth a win less than a replacement level player, then was traded to the Cubs and gave them a good year in the rotation.
He's in the bullpen now and on the shelf with shoulder trouble; even when healthy his velocity has been reduced and he has to throw more and more sliders to get by.
Gorzelanny's actual draft spot: No. 45 (second round, Pirates)
New York's pick: Eric Duncan, 3B, Seton Hall Prep (West Orange, N.J.)
28. St. Louis Cardinals
John Jaso | C, Southwestern College
Jaso put up big minor league numbers, but poor defense meant even the stat-crazed Rays were reluctant to give him a shot in the majors, finally doing so in 2010 with very positive results. He's not good at all behind the plate, but his ability to get on base plus value at first or at DH means a clever manager could work him in at catcher once a week or so to avoid having to carry a no-hit backup.
He's behind Saltalamacchia here despite superior WAR totals because Jaso is the kind of player who tends to age poorly, and I think Salty will eventually pass him in total career value.
Jaso's actual draft spot: No. 338 (12th round, Rays)
St. Louis' '03 pick: Daric Barton
29. Arizona Diamondbacks
Tyler Clippard | RHP, J.W. Mitchell HS (New Port Richey, Fla.)
The Yankees whiffed on their first eight picks in the 2003 draft, with none making the majors or even establishing any sort of trade value, including first-round bust Eric Duncan.
However, they did get four major leaguers from their draft class as a whole, including 19th-rounder Jeff Karstens and ninth-rounder Clippard, whose stuff was too marginal for the rotation but whose velocity picked up in a relief role, producing three solid seasons for the Nationals (who picked him up in a trade for Jonathan Albaladejo before 2008) in late-inning work. Relievers have short peaks and Clippard's probably won't last too much longer, but he's turned out to be one of the best relievers in the draft class, even exceeding the value of first-rounders Ryan Wagner, Chad Cordero and David Aardsma.
Clippard's actual draft spot: No. 274 (ninth round, Yankees)
Arizona's '03 pick: Carlos Quentin, Stanford
30. Kansas City Royals*
Kyle Kendrick | RHP, Mount Vernon (Wash.) HS
Kendrick has remade himself as a pitcher since late last summer, changes detailed by Bill Baer over at Crashburn Alley, which is part of the SweetSpot network.
I agree with Bill that Kendrick's ERA isn't sustainable -- it's at 2.47 this year, and 2.45 since that Aug. 8 cutoff point Bill cites -- but I do think the increased use of the changeup has turned him into a potentially league-average starter. He gets more swings and misses on that pitch from right- and left-handed hitters than he did with the cutter, and the changeup is making the fastball more effective as well.
He hasn't produced as much value to date as some players I left off this redraft, like Ryan Sweeney or Kevin Kouzmanoff, but I'm projecting solid production from him over the next five years.
Kendrick's actual draft spot: No. 205 (seventh round, Phillies)
Kansas City's pick: Mitch Maier, OF, Toledo
*This pick was compensation from the Braves for signing Paul Byrd.