Gerrit Cole hasn't been a top-end starter the past two years, missing time with elbow and triceps injuries in 2016, pitching a full season in 2017 but with worse results than he had in his breakout 2015 season, when he was worth 4.5 WAR by his ERA and 5.5 by his peripherals. The Astros didn't exactly have a hole in their rotation, but even if Cole repeats his 2017 performance he's a soft upgrade, and the package Pittsburgh receives is more one of quantity than of impact.

Cole gives up too much hard contact for a pitcher with his caliber of stuff, and became particularly homer-prone last season; he gave up as many homers just on fastballs (18) in 2017 as he did in his previous two seasons on all pitch types. Cole has a tendency to try to throw his way out of trouble, which causes his stuff to flatten out. His four-seamer has always been true, but he can show a plus slider and changeup when he doesn't overthrow them, although he's still vulnerable to quality contact when working in the strike zone, especially in the middle third of the zone if you divide it vertically. He can get away with four-seamers at or above the top of the zone or by burying a slider at the bottom; in 2017 he missed those spots far too often.

The Astros get Cole for the next two years at $6.75 million this year and probably $10-12 million in 2018, still well below what his production will be worth to them even if he just reproduces his 2017 performance. The addition of Cole gives them seven potential major league starters, even without considering Francis Martes and David Paulino, minor league starter prospects who'll likely be in the Astros' bullpen to start the year. The surplus could allow the team to move Brad Peacock back to a swing role, or move the oft-injured Lance McCullers Jr. to the bullpen, where he excelled in the postseason for them. Collin McHugh is still here as well, but was limited to 12 starts last year due primarily to an elbow injury, and may have been on the outside looking in even before the trade for Cole.

So the Astros didn't really need Cole, and may be only a win or so better this year for having him if he just holds his 2017 production; they may be betting on a return to 2015, and they may also have wanted to ensure Cole didn't go to a direct rival like the Yankees.

In exchange for their nominal ace, the Pirates received four players but no top prospects or future stars; neither of the two prospects they acquired will be on my top 100 later this month. Joe Musgrove was far more effective in 2017 as a reliever (1.44 ERA, with opponents hitting .196/.244/.321) than as a starter (6.12 ERA, .306/.356/.526). He doesn't have the third pitch to start and his fastball is much more effective when he can amp it up in a relief role. The Pirates may start him, but there's scant reason to think he'll be good enough to do it.

Michael Feliz has made 98 appearances for Houston over the past two-plus years, all in the pen, striking out nearly a third of the batters he faces but getting killed when working from the stretch. He's mostly fastball-slider, very occasionally throwing a changeup, although lefties haven't posed a significant problem for him in the majors … at least, no more of a problem than right-handed batters have. There may be some upside here if the Pirates can make him more effective with men on base, but right now he's an 11th man on a staff.

The Pirates also acquired two prospects, but didn't get any of the Astros' top four. Colin Moran has seemed like a bit of a disappointment since the Marlins made him the sixth overall pick in 2013, but he looks fully ready to take over as the Pirates' everyday third baseman in 2018. Moran has a good swing and has come into more power as he's gotten older, although he can get on top of the ball and hit too many grounders to get to his power fully. He has really worked to improve his defense and is at least playable at third, with a plus arm and good hands but slightly slow feet. His 2017 Triple-A line was a little inflated by his home ballpark too, and I think he projects as a solid-average regular at third but not more.

Outfielder Jason Martin reached Double-A this year at 21, but he's limited to left field, doesn't get on base at a high clip, and looks like he's already maxed out for power. Right now, he profiles as less than a regular.

So at the moment, at least, it appears that the Pirates got two relievers for the major league bullpen, an everyday third baseman and a left-field prospect who will start in Double-A but has to hit more to profile as a regular. If Cole had been healthy and effective the past two years, we're probably talking about an Andrew Miller/Chris Sale sort of package, but the 2016-17 seasons appear to have dented Cole's trade value significantly.