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Top 25 under 25: Does Bryce Harper or Manny Machado move to the top?

Whether it's Bryce Harper or Manny Machado at the top of the under-25 list, both could be historically good for the next decade. ESPN Illustration

This year’s edition of the top 25 players under 25 -- that’s under 25 years old, by which I mean players who are younger than 25, which is what the “under” part is for, and I hope someone will actually read this part -- is out a little earlier to give us (me) a break from draft coverage for the moment. The list also has seen big changes from last year’s edition: Eleven of the 25 players, including No. 1 Mike Trout, in last July's rankings have aged out of the list, and one more, Jose Fernandez, died in September.

This list is limited to players whose seasonal ages for 2017 are 24 or younger -- that is, any player who will not yet have turned 25 on July 1, 2017 -- and players who have exhausted their rookie status. That means no Mike Trout or Kris Bryant (both are already 25) and no Cody Bellinger or Yoan Moncada (they haven't exceeded rookie status).

One thing you’ll notice is how position-player-heavy this year’s list is. The ranks of pitchers under 25 who are both effective and healthy are pretty thin, with some of the best pitchers in the category missing significant time this year or last year due to arm troubles. Given how brief pitchers' peaks can be anyway, I was more aggressive this year in downgrading pitchers who had shoulder, elbow or other arm injuries the past two seasons.

1. Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals
Date of birth: Oct. 16, 1992 (age-24 season)
Last year’s rank: 2

Harper’s MVP season in 2015 ranked as the 15th-best WAR total ever by a player aged 24 or younger. In the past 50 years, only Mike Trout (twice), Alex Rodriguez and Cal Ripken posted higher WAR totals in any season before they turned 25. Harper’s 2016 was wrecked by a shoulder injury, but he appears to be right back on track, outpacing all of his stats from the MVP campaign and racking up 2.4 WAR in just 34 games. He’s the best pure hitter in baseball right now and will be a franchise player for the next decade.

2. Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles
Date of birth: July 6, 1992 (age-24 season)
Last year’s rank: 3

If you want to argue for Machado over Harper, I won’t put up a huge fight. Machado isn't as disciplined a hitter as Harper and doesn’t have the same feel for hitting, but he’s an elite defensive third baseman with power and a pair of MVP-caliber seasons under his belt too. Both Machado and Harper are scheduled to hit free agency after 2018, and I think there could be a real rivalry there to be the player who sets records for total contract value and highest average annual value (AAV).

3. Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
Date of birth: Sept. 22, 1994 (age-22 season)
Last year’s rank: 8

Correa is a shortstop now, and I’ve ranked him as such, though I think he’s better suited to third base and the Astros as a team would be better off with him there and Alex Bregman at short. But Correa’s bat is going to make him an MVP candidate wherever he plays. He’s already showing improved plate discipline, and I believe there’s 30-homer power in there even without giving him a boost for the short distance to Houston’s left-field fence. If the Astros win the AL West this year -- I’d put the odds of that above 95 percent -- he’ll have a good shot at that award.

4. Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
Date of birth: April 27, 1994 (age-23 season)
Last year’s rank: 4

Seager has been everything he was advertised to be and more, taking tremendous at-bats for a player so young, showing power and the ability to hit the other way and playing adequate defense despite being the biggest shortstop in MLB history. I don’t know if he’ll stay there for the long term -- there’s a good chance he slows down as he gets into his mid-20s -- but he has the hands and arm to stay or become Machado-like at third. And the bat will clearly play anywhere, even more so as he continues to improve against lefties.

5. Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians
Date of birth: Nov. 14, 1993 (age-23 season)
Last year’s rank: 6

Lindor continues to evolve as a hitter, seemingly coming into more power this year -- he has surprising strength for his size -- without losing any of his patience or ability to use the whole field. He’s a plus-plus defender at short with incredible feel for the game … except for his habit of dropping bad bunts in situations in which he should probably swing the bat. I’m sure he’ll grow out of that.

6. Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox
Date of birth: Oct. 7, 1992 (age-24 season)
Last year’s rank: 11

Betts just keeps beating expectations, even as everyone raises their projections of what he’ll be. He was the non-Trout MVP of the American League last year, and this year, he’s doing all the same stuff but walking more and striking out less. His K rate of 7.2 percent is currently the lowest of any qualifying hitter in 2017. He’s a natural shortstop who could probably play anywhere on the field but has turned himself into an elite defender in right. Underestimate him at your own risk.

7. Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
Date of birth: Aug. 29, 1992 (age-24 season)
Last year’s rank: 9

Thor’s torn lat muscle doesn’t really affect his long-term outlook. It isn't an arm injury, and if anything, it gives his arm some time off that most pitchers don’t get. He’s among the top five pitchers in the league when fully healthy and was dominating through five starts this year before the injury shut him down, with a fastball that averages 98 mph with life and a slider that I think is the hardest any starter has ever thrown. He’s a true ace, and I expect him to return to form after the injury.

8. Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
Date of birth: Dec. 18, 1993 (age-23 season)
Last year’s rank: Honorable mention

How much do you have to hit to be an everyday-caliber player if you’re the best defensive center fielder in baseball? Buxton has bounced back from a horrendous start to the year with improved contact rates and patience the past three weeks, and he is an 80 defender in center, with unbelievable range and a plus-plus arm. He’s also an 80 runner, but he isn’t stealing much, which is probably a combination of design and working on improving his base stealing acumen. I’m ranking him aggressively because his defense gives him a high floor and his other tools give him an unreal ceiling.

9. Trea Turner, Washington Nationals
Date of birth: June 30, 1993 (age-24 season)
Last year’s rank: Not eligible

Turner’s speed is potentially game-changing, and he has shown himself to be more than capable of handling shortstop defensively after a brief detour to center field last year. His 13 homers last year in just 73 games beat any real expectations or projections I had for his power output, and I guess I’d still be surprised if he ended up with 20-plus even twice in his career, as he has always looked like a high-contact hitter who goes the other way well. It won’t take much power for him to end up an above-average regular who makes some All-Star teams. Also, because his name is “treat urner,” I think his nickname should be “good dog.”

10. Addison Russell, Chicago Cubs
Date of birth: Jan. 23, 1994 (age-23 season)
Last year’s rank: 24

Russell is an outstanding defensive shortstop with some of the best hands I’ve seen on any player at the position, though he has been hampered both throwing and swinging this year by a sore shoulder. When healthy, he has power and great bat control, but his plate discipline remains behind the rest of his game, and he’s still prone to some disappointing at-bats. As with Buxton, however, the defensive value Russell provides gives him a high floor, and I strongly believe his offensive game has a lot of room for further improvement.

11. Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox
Date of birth: July 6, 1994 (age-22 season)
Last year’s rank: Not eligible

For a rookie with fewer than 300 major league plate appearances under his belt, Benintendi has an advanced, patient approach you’d expect to see on a major league veteran. Despite his being a bit undersized at 5-foot-10 (listed) and 170 pounds, he has plus power and should regularly hit 20-plus homers a year, probably 25-plus, given what he can show in BP. Benintendi is playing mostly left field right now for the Red Sox but is a natural center fielder and could handle that position for most clubs, which I factored into his ranking here.

12. Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
Date of birth: Oct. 1, 1992 (age-24 season)
Last year’s rank: 7

Bogaerts is such a good hitter that you almost forget that he has no homers so far this year -- strange, given the raw power he has always shown and the 21 homers he hit last year at age 23. But he has sacrificed power for contact, hitting the ball more often but less hard. It’s a bit strange for a guy who was known as a teenager for how well the ball came off his bat, but it's a more than acceptable tradeoff for an average defensive shortstop. I believe the power is still in there and the power drop is a change in approach rather than a lack of physical ability. If true, the potential remains for him to be an even better player than he already is.

13. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Date of birth: March 30, 1994 (age-23 season)
Last year’s rank: Not eligible

I think Bregman is going to post .300 batting average/.400 OBP lines multiple times in his career. He’s so direct to the ball with such good hand-eye coordination that I would be shocked if he didn’t end up reaching those marks. The power he showed in the minors was a surprise, however, though he carried it to the majors last year. I thought he’d make lots of hard contact but didn’t think the definitely-not-6-foot Bregman would put that many balls in the seats. He’s a third baseman now but could be an average defender at short if the Astros choose to switch him and Correa.

14. Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees
Date of birth: Dec. 2, 1992 (age-24 season)
Last year’s rank: Not eligible

Sanchez had a rookie season -- well, half-season -- for the ages last year, with 20 homers in 53 games, good enough to get him second in Rookie of the Year balloting and push the Yankees to trade Brian McCann and give Sanchez the starting job behind the plate. Sanchez has improved enough as a receiver to stay back there, though he is probably always going to be a bat-first, throw-second, glove-third kind of guy. I’m sure the Yankees will be fine with that.

15. Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves
Date of birth: Feb. 11, 1994 (age-23 season)
Last year’s rank: Not eligible

Swanson looked just fine last year after his late-summer call-up but has been one of the worst hitters in baseball in 2017. He isn't this bad and hasn’t failed to hit at any level yet, and even his contact rates and contact quality are OK, despite his atrocious stat line. He’s also at least a solid-average defender at short and an above-average baserunner (if he can get on base). I’m saying don’t panic yet.

16. Manuel Margot, San Diego Padres
Date of birth: Sept. 28, 1994 (age-22 season)
Last year’s rank: Not eligible

This is about the season I expected from Margot -- good defense, some pop, solid contact rates and a good approach at the plate -- though I think there’s more OBP in here and probably even better defense as he adjusts to the majors and playing the three-acre center field at Petco Park. He has a high floor but a limited ceiling relative to the players around him on this list.

17. Aaron Sanchez, Toronto Blue Jays
Date of birth: July 1, 1992 (age-24 season)
Last year’s rank: 14

Sanchez is a longtime favorite of mine and has turned into an above-average big league starter who still hasn’t seen 200 innings in a season and won’t get there this year after working around a blister and a split fingernail on his pitching hand in the early going. He was outstanding last year, throwing strikes with a plus fastball that generates a lot of ground balls and an out-pitch breaking ball, thanks to an offseason workout program before 2016. My one concern with him is durability. He has a top-heavy delivery, and few starters stay healthy long-term without relying more on their lower halves than Sanchez does. If Sanchez were one day older, he’d be ineligible for this list, as July 1 is the cutoff date.

18. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
Date of birth: Sept. 17, 1992 (age-24 season)
Last year’s rank: Unranked

Since the start of 2016, Ramirez has hit .306/.361/.465 while playing roughly average defense at three different positions for Cleveland, which has been worth 4.9 WAR by Baseball-Reference. After hitting 11 homers all of the past season, he already has six this season and seems pretty likely to blow away his career high. If left alone at one spot -- third base or second, the former more likely, of course -- he might even contribute some value in the field too. He’s a very good, very underrated player, with the latter exacerbated by the fact that he has a namesake pitching in Atlanta’s bullpen.

19. Julio Urias, Los Angeles Dodgers
Date of birth: Aug. 12, 1996 (age-20 season)
Last year’s rank: Not eligible

Urias will probably be on this list for a long time to come, as he won’t lose eligibility until the 2022 season and is already pretty good. He has shown three above-average to plus offerings, though his curveball has been surprisingly ineffective since he reached the majors last year. The Dodgers are bringing him along slowly, but he has at least No. 2 starter upside, given his feel for pitching and how advanced his stuff already is at age 20.

20. Michael Conforto, New York Mets
Date of birth: March 1, 1993 (age-24 season)
Last year's rank: Not eligible

Conforto is on an epic tear to start the season, which I find rather vindicating, given my arguments last year that the Mets needed to play him more and that Terry Collins was working overtime to find ways to bench the kid (when Collins wasn’t busy trashing Kevin Plawecki to the media). Conforto is really a left fielder, but he can hit for average and get on base at high clips, so even with average power -- and with his nine home runs in 33 games this year, maybe that’s a little light -- he’d be an above-average regular.

21. Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins
Date of birth: May 11, 1993 (age-24 season)
Last year’s rank: Honorable mention

Sano is certainly having a strange year: He’s second in the AL in walks and OBP, third in strikeouts and ninth in wins above replacement, but he’s also sporting a .434 BABIP that is beyond unsustainable. He’s back at third base, where he isn't very good defensively, but as long as he continues to get on base and hit for power, it isn't going to matter much.

22. Nomar Mazara, Texas Rangers
Date of birth: April 26, 1995 (age-22 season)
Last year’s rank: 17

I think Mazara’s hot start to his major league career set the bar too high. He reached the majors last year at age 21 with just 23 career games at Triple-A and only 444 minor league games total. But he hasn’t been overmatched by big league pitching and can turn on a fastball, struggling with off-speed stuff and too little hard contact. I doubt the latter will continue, given his size and strength, and I think at worst he’ll end up a low-OBP slugger -- but I expect quite a bit more.

23. Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers
Date of birth: March 15, 1993 (age-24 season)
Last year’s rank: 18

The 2016 AL Rookie of the Year hasn’t missed a beat so far in his sophomore season, missing just a few more bats this time around and giving up three runs or fewer in all seven of his starts this year. It’s a bit bleak in Tigertown at the moment, but you can envision a rotation in the not-too-distant future with Fulmer at the top and Daniel Norris in the No. 2 spot.

24. Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers
Date of birth: Feb. 3, 1994 (age-23 season)
Last year’s rank: Unranked

I held my nose on this one, as Odor’s 3.0 percent walk rate last year was putrid, and though I can say he has nearly doubled it this year, it still stinks. But he’s a solid second baseman with shocking power -- I never saw last year’s 33 homers coming -- and good bat-to-ball skills, so I chose to rank him even with his noisome walk rates and fetid .211 BABIP this year.

25. Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers
Date of birth: Nov. 19, 1993 (age-23 season)
Last year’s rank: Not eligible

Come on, you know you want to see how this one turns out. Gallo is hitting .195/.313/.537 and leading the AL in strikeouts, and he still has 12 homers (second-most in the league) and 1.0 WAR total despite losing some ground with poor defense at third. He might have to go to first base, and he might never hit .250, but he has an idea at the plate and power so great that the 20-80 scale can’t hold him. Maybe he’s the ultimate tease, but I’m still buying.

Honorable mentions: Lance McCullers, Carlos Rodon, Aaron Nola, Tim Anderson, Javier Baez, Daniel Norris.