Vanderbilt right-hander Kyle Wright came into the year as one of maybe six candidates to go first overall in the amateur draft, but inconsistent results the first eight weekends had caused teams to view him as more of an early first-rounder but not a top-five pick. His outing on April 14 against Florida did a lot to reverse his slide, and he looked every bit the part of a No. 1 overall pick.
Wright pitched at 92-94 mph with his four-seamer all night and held his velocity through the game. The pitch has some glove-side run but no sink, and he was very effective pitching to the edges of the strike zone and elevating it when he needed to get it above the barrel.
His slider was his out pitch, anywhere from 81-86 mph, and he threw it for strikes and out of the zone for chases, with good tilt. He threw just a couple of mid-80s changeups, preferring to go to the slider against left-handed batters, either throwing it to their back feet or going for the backdoor strike.
Wright’s tempo was superb all night, and he has the size and delivery of a big league starter right now. My only quibble with his mechanics is how quickly he moves off the rubber, but his arm works well and without much visible effort for how he’s throwing. He dispatched Florida on 99 pitches with a three-hit, 13-strikeout, no-walk shutout.
Unfortunately, Wright hasn’t pitched like that all season -- the start brought his ERA for the spring below 4.00 -- but if this is the new Kyle Wright and he pitches at this level with this stuff in a few more starts, he’ll be back in the mix for every team from No. 1 on down.
Vandy center fielder Jeren Kendall was also on that shortlist of 1-1 candidates coming into the year, but his spring has been very disappointing, and at times disastrous, because he’s struggling to make contact. He struck out three times in five at-bats on April 13, which capped a five-game stretch where he struck out 14 times in 25 plate appearances, an unfathomable contact slump for a player expected, at one point, to be the first college position player off the board.
He’s now up to 49 strikeouts in 181 plate appearances through April 18, the highest total and rate among Vanderbilt regulars.
Kendall’s swing is problematic to begin with. He doesn’t use his lower half at all, and his swing is more like a chip shot, with very little load and huge timing problems. He’s also just not making good swing decisions right now, chasing fastballs up and out of the hitting zone and falling behind, where, without any two-strike approach to speak of, he’s frequently toast.
Kendall remains one of the best athletes in the class, an 80 runner with power, boasting good bat speed and the range to end up a plus defender in center. His tools are top-of-draft, but his performance would knock him out of the first round. I think there’s a place to take a player like this, but it’s not going to match the preseason expectations.
Florida starter Alex Faedo started April 13 and showed a little of why he was seen as a probable top-10 and possible top-five pick, but he also showed the inconsistency that has caused his stock to take a hit.
Faedo was at 90-94 mph, without much life, and relied more on a very hard, sharp slider to get swings and misses. That slider is a pitch that would probably still miss bats in pro ball, but the slider-heavy approach would be unusual for a major league starter. He barely threw his changeup, dropping his arm slot to do so, and his fastball command was well below average.
Faedo’s delivery is somewhat rough, with effort in his arm swing but a strong finish with good extension out front. Between the inconsistent arm path and lack of rhythm in the delivery, however, I don’t foresee future average command. Most of the main college starters this year have reliever risk, and I’d put Faedo in the middle of that group, maybe 50/50 to remain a starter, with a lot of development required to get him there. In this draft class, that’s a mid-first-rounder or below, not a top-10 pick.
Florida first baseman JJ Schwarz endured a brutal stretch of his own, striking out eight times in nine plate appearances (with one walk) at one point last week, and his descent from his freshman year continues unabated.
Once seen as a future first-rounder, Schwarz is now hitting .237/.312/.378, and he has struck out in 32 percent of his at-bats in SEC play. He looked utterly lost against Vanderbilt both nights, unable to catch up to low-90s fastballs or adjust to changing speeds or locations. He’s also a below-average defender at first. There might still be raw power in there -- he put on massive displays in BP as a freshman and hit 18 homers that year – but he has just four homers this year, and he has stopped hitting, period, so there's no power.
Looking ahead a bit to next year, Florida right-hander Brady Singer, who didn’t sign with Toronto when the Jays took him in the second round in 2015, started against Kyle Wright and was at 91-93 mph with a sharp, low-80s slider. He has a high-effort delivery and cuts himself off at his landing. That and the average fastball point to a more likely future in relief than as a starter.