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MLB breakout picks for 2017

Shortstop Addison Russell has already been a key piece for the Cubs' title run, but he might be ready to deliver more at the plate. Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Every March, I post a list of players who I think are primed for significant upticks in their performances for the coming season. These are players who already have lost their rookie status but either haven't performed at all in the majors or perhaps just haven't lived up to expectations.

Last year's list had several players who did indeed break out, including Jake Lamb, Wil Myers, Robbie Ray and Jonathan Schoop.

This year's list has eight players on it, ranging in age from 22 to 33 (the oldest player I’ve ever included on such a list), including a couple of former top prospects looking for their first real tastes of big league success.

Law's past breakout candidates: 2016 | 2015


Charlie Morton, RHP, Houston Astros

Morton looked like a different pitcher for the Phillies in four starts last April before tearing his hamstring and missing the remainder of the season. So far this March, he has looked as good if not better for the Astros, with his fastball sitting at 94-96 mph, occasionally touching 98, complemented with an upper-80s slider and low-80s curveball.

He has been a great ground ball guy for the past six years anyway, but now he’s going to miss more bats than ever before. Morton has never been a 2.0-plus WAR pitcher by any measure, but I think he’ll destroy that mark this year even if he pitches only 160 or so innings.

Orlando Arcia, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

Arcia probably didn’t belong in the majors last year, at least not based on his 2016 performance in Triple-A Colorado Springs or his age, but he struggled in a way I truly didn’t expect: He had trouble with fastballs, swinging and missing at 14.7 percent of four- and two-seamers (via MLB Statcast data), compared to 5.7 percent that he put in play for hits and 14.4 percent he put in play for outs.

If you’d told me the 21-year-old would struggle with breaking stuff, or pitchers changing speeds on him, that would have made sense. He was young, inexperienced, and had just come from a hitter-friendly environment 6,000 feet above sea level where breaking balls don’t break. But Arcia has plenty of bat speed and I think he can hit a good major league fastball right now. He may still have some contact issues with off-speed pitches, but I think he’s going to see a substantial jump in his overall performance as he starts squaring up more fastballs this year.

Addison Russell, SS, Chicago Cubs

This is a pure scouting bet, as there’s nothing in Russell’s 2016 performance to point to a big jump in his batting average and OBP. He walked more last year, but saw fewer pitches per plate appearance and wasn’t getting into favorable counts any more frequently, while his BABIP took a big tumble.

Russell has some of the best hands I’ve ever seen in terms of strength and quickness, and that applies on both sides of the ball. I wasn’t surprised to see him strike out less and show more power, but was surprised that spike in his contact rate didn’t mean a higher average or a drop in how often he pops the ball up.

I’m going to bet on him to do more with the bat, especially going the other way more often now that he has established pull power and will be pitched accordingly, because he has the hands and the approach to get there.

James Paxton, LHP, Seattle Mariners

Here’s my bold (read: not that bold) prediction on Paxton, who added nearly 2 mph to his fastball last year but was hurt for the umpteenth season in a row: He’ll be excellent for about 20 starts, and will miss some time or pitch poorly because he’s not 100 percent for the rest.

That should add up to a 3-4 win starter, with an ERA to match that, as opposed to last year when his FIP was a run below his ERA. I do believe in Paxton’s stuff, but not so much his arm action, which affects his ability to stay healthy and to command his fastball. I’ve also long had a hypothesis that guys who see sudden velocity spikes tend to get hurt in the short term, although Paxton’s increase wasn’t as big as guys like Stephen Strasburg (88-89 mph in high school, 97-plus the next spring) or Joel Zumaya (upper 80s in high school to 98-100 a year later) experienced.

Maybe the Mariners work around Paxton to try to keep him healthy, accepting that he might not take the ball every fifth day. My guess is that as long as he’s able to pitch, he’ll be great.

Austin Hedges, C, San Diego Padres

The mishandling of Hedges has been the most puzzling aspect of A.J. Preller’s tenure as Padres general manager. A top prospect who received first-round money out of high school and performed all the way up the minors, Hedges has languished on the major league bench for good chunks of the past two seasons, failing to play in 100 total games in either year (majors and minors).

He’s a plus defender with a 70 arm, has long had a reputation as a good receiver, and has plus raw power. He hit 21 homers in 82 games in Triple-A, albeit in hitter-friendly ballparks, and given what he has shown in BP I think there’s 20 homers here in a full season of catching in the majors. He might not crack a .300 OBP, depending on where he hits in the lineup, but the power and the defense should make him a 2-3 win player.

Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Boston Red Sox

I’ve been a Rodriguez advocate since he was in low-A and he was my No. 100 prospect going into the 2013 season, but his 2016 was ruined by a too-quick return from a knee injury and by him tipping his pitches in a few starts early in the year. He has had a plus fastball and plus changeup since he was 20, and both have looked strong this March, while he has tweaked his release point on his slider to try to give it some more depth.

I’m not predicating his inclusion on this list on the slider being there, because lots of guys look better when the at-bats don’t count, but I do think a full, healthy season for Rodriguez without any pitch-tipping will mean at least mid-rotation production with a chance for more.

Byron Buxton, CF, Minnesota Twins

I hesitated to even include Buxton because it’s so obvious -- former No. 1 overall prospect, former No. 2 overall pick in the draft, tools up the wazoo (80 speed, 70 glove, 70 arm), had a huge September after a midyear demotion to Triple-A.

I think his approach at the plate has legitimately improved, and while I’d still expect a strikeout rate around 30 percent this year, he’ll walk more and get into better counts so that he does produce when he puts the ball in play. Simply guaranteeing him a full season of playing time would help as well considering he seemed to be fighting to keep his job in the early going last year. It may come with a sub-.300 OBP, but Buxton has a good shot at 20 homers and 20 stolen bases this year. With his outstanding defense, that would make him a 3-plus win player.

Derek Law, RHP, San Francisco

My large adult son may not get many save opportunities in San Francisco with the signing of Mark Melancon, but it’s pretty clear already that he could be someone’s closer with a fastball/power slider combination that has proved effective against left- and right-handed batters, and surprisingly good control given his delivery.

We're just so proud of everything he has done already and we always tell him he can be anything he wants to be.