(Editor's note: This piece was published before it was announced on February 15 that St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Alex Reyes would have season-ending Tommy John surgery. Reyes was originally No. 3 on this list.)
When I published my ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball, I was considering the long-term value of the players on the list and off of it. I was also considering how far away they were and the risk that they might not reach their ceilings and might fail to reach the majors at all.
Potential impact in 2017 was just a small consideration. Although there’s clear value in being confident that Player X is going to produce for you this year, few teams will give up big, long-term upside for the certainty of a player in the short term (except when Trea Turner is involved).
This list goes the other way: It looks at 2017, period. Full stop. -30-. I’m combining my evaluations of these players’ potential for production right now with what I freely admit are educated guesses on playing time.
I don’t think there are even 10 rookies today who clearly have everyday jobs or rotation spots in the big leagues for Opening Day, so half the list comprises players I expect to play three-quarters of the season or more but not break with a club on April 2.
I have ranked and written about the top 20 prospects for this year, and I have listed in a separate section at the end anyone else I think has a good shot of producing this year.
Editor's note: Age is the player's age as of July 1, 2017.
1. Andrew Benintendi, OF, Boston Red Sox
Age: 22 (7/6/94) | B/T: L/L
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 170
Top level: MLB
The favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, Benintendi will lose his prospect eligibility in 25 at-bats. He is set to be Boston’s everyday left fielder this year, and I think his triple-slash line from his big-league debut, .295/.359/.476, is a good projection for his 2017, with 20-homer upside if he has a full, healthy season.
2. Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves
Age: 23 (2/11/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 190
Top level: MLB
The favorite for NL Rookie of the Year, Swanson will lose his prospect eligibility in just one at-bat, so my top two prospects coming into 2017 will both graduate from the top 100 by the first week of the regular season. Swanson is set to be Atlanta’s everyday shortstop this year, and I expect him to hit .280/.340/.420 or so with at least 20 steals and at least solid-average defense.
3. Josh Bell, 1B/OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 24 (8/14/92) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 240
Top level: MLB
Don’t sleep on Bell’s ROY chances in the NL. Swanson might end up the better player overall, but Bell should end up with the more impressive offensive line, hitting for average, getting on base and showing at least solid-average power.
4. Manuel Margot, CF, San Diego Padres
Age: 22 (9/28/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 180
Top level: MLB
Margot’s biggest impact in 2017 will likely come on defense in a ballpark that tends to reward good play in center (and penalize those who can’t handle it). He’s competing for the regular job there with Travis Jankowski, who would be a fourth outfielder on a better club and shouldn’t stand in the way of Margot’s development.
5. Jose De Leon, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 24 (8/7/92) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 190
Top level: MLB
Traded to Tampa Bay last month, De Leon should slot directly into the back of the Rays’ rotation and get his 30 starts this year. I expect some inconsistency and trouble with the long ball, as he doesn’t have a solid breaking ball yet, but his control and durability should keep him in the rotation and let him provide value by soaking up innings.
6. Robert Gsellman, RHP, New York Mets
Age: 23 (7/18/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 205
Top level: MLB
Gsellman went from fringe prospect to viable No. 4 starter with a big velocity bump last season, and though he lacks the hype of the Mets’ other starting pitching options, he’s completely healthy and should be able to handle 180 innings this season. That will give the Mets some flexibility for handling Matt Harvey, Steven Matz and Zack Wheeler as those three come off injuries.
7. Aaron Judge, RF, New York Yankees
Age: 25 (4/26/92) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-7 | Weight: 275
Top level: MLB
Judge struggled with contact in his big league debut last year, striking out in more than 40 percent of his plate appearances. I expect him to take some time to bring that down this year, but that’s been his history with each promotion in pro ball. Judge is a giant, at 6-foot-7, 275 pounds, so his strike zone is just as big, but he has enormous raw power and is an above-average right fielder. As long as the contact he makes continues to be hard contact, he’ll have value even if he’s among the league leaders in Ks.
8. Hunter Renfroe, RF, San Diego Padres
Age: 25 (1/28/92) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 214
Top level: MLB
Renfroe was not on my top 100 because he has a below-average hit tool and lacks patience at the plate, all of which is a function of poor breaking-ball recognition. Unlike many players on my top 100, he has a pretty good grip on a full-time job in 2017. Renfroe has power and should be an average defender in right, with a plus arm boosting his value, but I do worry he’ll have a hard time getting into enough hitters’ counts to see fastballs he can drive.
9. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 22 (7/14/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 255
Top level: MLB
Giolito will probably start the year in Triple-A, which makes sense, given that he’s in a new organization (after the trade that sent him to the White Sox). He struggled in his big league debut last year, but I expect him to spend the bulk of the year in Chicago’s rotation.
Giolito still has No. 1 starter upside, and I expect the White Sox to let him use his two-seamer more and allow him to stick with the delivery that originally made him a first-round pick.
10. Jharel Cotton, RHP, Oakland A's
Age: 22 (7/14/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 190
Top level: MLB
Cotton appears to have a job in the A’s rotation right now, so while he lacks the upside of someone such as Giolito, he’s more likely to get 30 starts this year to have comparable or greater impact.
I think Cotton’s more of a fourth starter in the long run, but he’s moving to a very favorable environment for pitchers and has made significant strides in filling out his arsenal the past two seasons, so there could be a little more upside to come.
11. Tyler Glasnow, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 23 (8/23/93) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-8 | Weight: 220
Top level: MLB
I think Glasnow’s star has dimmed within the industry, something reflected a bit in where I ranked him overall this past winter, but I worry there’s a bit of overreaction in the way other teams look at him. He wasn’t ready for the majors last year and still has below-average control, but everything we liked about him before is still there. I’d bet on him starting in the minors, but the Pirates will certainly have a need for another starter in the spring, whether because someone gets hurt or someone such as Drew Hutchison or Chad Kuhl struggles, at which point Glasnow should get a second chance in the majors. Nick Kingham could also get the call now that he’s recovered from 2015 Tommy John surgery.
12. Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 23 (8/17/93) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 215
Top level: Triple-A
The Reds don’t really have three viable outfield regulars on their roster right now. Billy Hamilton has center locked up, so if you give Adam Duvall one corner, the other is ... Scott Schebler? I’d give Winker a job over Schebler at this point, given Winker’s propensity for getting on base. Now that he has had an offseason of rest for his wrist injury, I expect his average-ish power to return as well.
13. Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 24 (6/11/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 225
Top level: MLB
I don’t think Alfaro is ready to be an everyday catcher in the majors right now, but he’s got a clear path to that job, with only Cameron Rupp and Andrew Knapp, both better cast as backups than starters, ahead of him. If Alfaro gets off to a hot start in Triple-A and draws more than his customary three walks a month in April, he should be in line for a call-up.
14. Matt Strahm, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Age: 25 (11/12/91) | B/T: R/L
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 185
Top level: MLB
Given how well Strahm pitched out of the bullpen at the end of 2016, it’s hard to imagine him spending much time in the minors this year, regardless of his role going forward. The Royals could use him in their rotation, and we have already seen what his stuff looks like in the bullpen. I’m splitting the baby a bit by putting him here, below a couple starters who might not get the same big league time he does.
15. Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 23 (1/4/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 185
Top level: MLB
If the White Sox intend to leave Lopez as a starter, this might not apply, but I’ve thought for a while now that his future lies in the bullpen because of his delivery and command. If the Sox choose to slot him into a relief role, he’s ready now to be their seventh- or eighth-inning guy, and he will likely sit 98-100 in that role. The same applies to teammate Carson Fulmer, but at this moment, they seem inclined to give Fulmer one more chance to show he can start.
16. Mitch Haniger, CF, Seattle Mariners
Age: 26 (12/23/90) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 215
Top level: MLB
Seattle’s outfield situation is pretty crowded, but it seems like Haniger, acquired in the trade that sent Taijuan Walker and Ketel Marte to Arizona earlier this winter, has a bead on one of the corner outfield jobs. Haniger has good tools across the board but nothing significantly above-average, so I’ve generally seen him as a good fourth outfielder or maybe a fringe regular, seeing as he doesn’t project to the power typically required for a right fielder. Even so, he is going to get the playing time that I can’t guarantee for other prospects I ranked higher.
17. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 22 (1/11/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180
Top level: Triple-A
Crawford’s Triple-A debut last year was underwhelming, but he was just 21 years old and is clearly the Phillies’ best prospect and shortstop of the future. It’s hard to imagine that he doesn’t spend at least half of 2017 in the majors and perhaps more, if his second go-around in the International League goes better. If that happens, it’ll free the Phillies to shop Freddy Galvis, who’d be a good utility infielder for a contender, before the July 31 deadline.
18. Albert Almora Jr., CF, Chicago Cubs
Age: 23 (4/16/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 190
Top level: MLB
The Cubs signed Jon Jay this offseason and could give him the bulk of the playing time in center, but I’d like to see them give Almora a real shot to play every day. He isn't going to be a star, but he can absolutely handle the defensive side of the job and has enough of a hit tool that he could end up a decent regular. His ceiling is limited by his various weaknesses: he doesn’t run well, he rarely walks, and he has fringy power at best. But he could be an everyday guy who’d make Jay a fourth outfielder and solid left-handed bat off the bench.
19. Tom Murphy, C, Colorado Rockies
Age: 26 (4/3/91) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 220
Top level: MLB
Murphy has had trouble staying healthy in pro ball, but he’s an adequate receiver with big pull power, and I think if he gets the chance to play regularly in Denver, he’ll grab hold of the job because he gives them some offense from the position they won’t get from incumbent Tony Wolters. This isn’t a ranking of potential fantasy baseball value ... but hey, if you play fantasy baseball, this one’s for you.
Other players I considered or who could have a big impact with unexpected playing time: Fulmer; Kingham; Robert Stephenson, RHP, Cincinnati; Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh; Clint Frazier, OF, NY Yankees; Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B, Chicago White Sox; Jorge Lopez, RHP, Milwaukee; Luke Weaver, RHP, St. Louis; Jeff Hoffman, RHP, Colorado; Ozhaino Albies, 2B/SS, Atlanta; Josh Hader, LHP, Milwaukee; Raimel Tapia, OF, Colorado; Austin Barnes, C/2B/other, L.A. Dodgers.