This year's free-agent class is the worst I've ever ranked and written up for ESPN, which now covers 11 offseasons, and I can't remember one being worse before that. There's some outfield help, some adequate catching options and a couple of closers, but that's about it. If you're looking for a midrotation starter, a middle infielder or a third baseman, you're pretty much out of luck. There's no ace on the market or anything close to it. There are almost no high-OBP options. And the class as a whole is old, with many of its best players already well into their 30s. So for most teams looking to upgrade their major league rosters this winter, the trade market becomes the best avenue.
The last two offseasons have shown us that just about anything is possible in the trade market, as we've seen "unmovable" contracts moved (including Matt Kemp's) and face-of-the-franchise players traded (Todd Frazier). Whereas three or four years ago, signing a young player to a long, team-friendly deal meant he was the player least likely to be traded, now it simply increases market interest in his services, especially as industry revenues have increased faster than the market can funnel the gains to players.
Greatest opportunity for trade activity
It likely will revolve around starting pitching because the free-agent starter class is so weak, with Rich Hill, who was pitching in an independent league 18 months ago, being the best of the group.
Interested teams: The Orioles sneaked into the second wild-card spot despite getting a 4.72 ERA from their starters, the worst of any playoff team since the 2009 Minnesota Twins, and their current roster has just two reliable starters for 2017, one of whom, Chris Tillman, ended the year with a quick return from shoulder problems.
Meanwhile, the Yankees have just three sure starters in their 2017 rotation and have rebuilt the farm system to the point where they could swing a huge deal for a top-end starter and still have a strong crop of prospects left over. The Rangers made the playoffs in 2016 with a patched-up rotation and could stand to upgrade in at least their last two spots; they still have a lot of high-value talent in their system, including some outfield surplus they could try to convert into a starter. The Angels have few tradable assets in their system, but they could use multiple starters in their rotation. The Dodgers, Pirates, Red Sox and Cardinals could all be on the market for additional rotation help as well, looking just at teams that are likely to contend or try to contend this year.
Which teams could take advantage: This looks fortuitous for teams with pitching to spare, especially the White Sox, who hold two of the most valuable starter assets in the game in Chris Sale and Jose Quintana, both top-10 pitchers in the American League -- perhaps even top five -- signed to very team-friendly contracts.
Cleveland could choose to part with a starter to capitalize on the shortage in the free-agent market and perhaps acquire some minimum-salary pieces to keep their payroll down for the foreseeable future. The Twins would be out of their minds to keep Ervin Santana, who just posted a 3.8 WAR season in 2016 and is owed $28 million over the next two years; he'd be the best starter on the market if he were a free agent and in line for a much higher salary. This is probably the wrong time to sell on Sonny Gray, but Oakland could at least explore his market, given his youth and previous history of outstanding performances.
Big-name position players
The emphasis on keeping payroll down may push some big position-player names into the trade market, starting with Pirates superstar Andrew McCutchen, who had a down year in 2016 but remains the team's most popular player and an ambassador for the game. The Pirates have outfield prospect Austin Meadows in Triple-A, not quite ready for the majors yet, but not far off, and could choose to deal McCutchen before he gets too near the end of his contract; he's owed $14 million in 2017, with a team option for 2018 at $14.75 million. I know they've at least signaled to potential buyers that they're willing to discuss a McCutchen deal.
The new regime in Arizona could put Paul Goldschmidt, a perennial MVP candidate owed just less than $20 million the next two years with an option for 2019, on the market, where he'd be the best position player available. I'd also expect them to at least see if a reasonable market exists for Zack Greinke, whose $34 million salary this year likely will consume a third of the Diamondbacks' total payroll.
Colorado probably should explore a trade of superstar Nolan Arenado, who's likely to crash past $10 million in arbitration this winter and who could net the Rockies the boatload of pitching they'll need if they're ever going to be competitive at altitude.
Goldschmidt and Arenado are immediate difference-makers, and if McCutchen's 2016 decline was injury-related, he could be one too.
The payroll issue appears likely to affect Detroit as well, given GM Al Avila's recent comments about getting "leaner" and "younger" and working within the team's "means." The Tigers' roster is heavily imbalanced, with more than three-fourths of the budget going to eight players, only three of whom -- Ian Kinsler, Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera -- were worth what they were paid. This might involve the team paying portions of the contracts of players like Anibal Sanchez or Justin Upton to facilitate trades, but if Avila is going to keep this team respectable while cutting costs, he's going to have to be creative.
The qualifying-offer effect
Assuming the existing CBA (collective bargaining agreement) rules remain in place for this offseason even after there's a new agreement, there will still be a drag on some free agents this winter because of the qualifying-offer system, where signing certain free agents will cost the signing team their first draft pick, taking with it a big chunk of the team's signing bonus pool for the draft. I've written before how this system accomplishes nothing good -- it distorts free-agent salaries and provides a disincentive for bad teams to get better by signing free agents. But it can only help the trade market, with several free agents in my top 20 likely to receive qualifying offers. I can see at least two who should consider accepting those offers.
Great expectations
I'll be shocked (and, professionally speaking, a little underutilized) if this winter's trade market is slow. There are too many teams that think they can contend in 2017 and have clear needs that the free-agent market can't satisfy. Demand for certain things, like starting pitching, outstrips supply even in rich free-agent classes, but this class is broke. And with teams like the Astros and Cubs showing that taking it on the chin for a few years is a viable path to contention, we'll see more teams try a similar route as long as the new CBA continues to provide an incentive for them to do so. That should lead to a busy winter, or else I shall be forced to … uh … write a strongly worded letter to the Times.