The draft is a time of hope and promise, and after it's all over, a scout sits with his staff and marvels over the players the team just picked. Well, sometimes they don't work out as planned, as is the case for most of these 24 first-rounders who didn't make the top 30 in my re-draft of the 2006 class -- although in that year's case, a few of these players have had respectable major league careers, even if they didn't quite become what was expected of them.
You can see the 2005 "misses" column for comparison (spoiler alert: There weren't nearly as many misses). And to look at how I would re-draft the first round, click here.
Note: All WAR figures come from the indispensable Baseball-Reference.com.
Pick No. 1: Luke Hochevar, RHP
Tennessee
WAR to date: 2.9
Hochevar has found a niche as a capable middle reliever, although nothing close to the expectations when he was drafted first overall in 2006 that he'd be a durable mid-rotation starter. Hochevar had been a potential top-10 pick the previous year, but fell due to signing-bonus demands. He was picked by the Dodgers in the sandwich round and ended up in a did-he-or-didn't-he signing saga that winter that included multiple agents and ultimately his withdrawal from Tennessee and a stint in independent ball. He got his money, but can we wonder what might have been if he had signed with LA in 2005?
2. Greg Reynolds, RHP
Stanford
WAR to date: -1.8
I hope you're sitting down, but Reynolds is a(nother) Stanford pitcher who got hurt in pro ball. The Rockies' baseball folks wanted to take Evan Longoria (who went third), but word came down from above to take a pitcher. Unfortunately, that was Reynolds, who threw hard but never missed many bats. Had the Rockies taken Longoria, the Rays, who picked third, had a deal ready with Tim Lincecum.
4. Brad Lincoln, RHP
Houston
WAR to date: 0.1
Lincoln was a quirky pick. He threw hard but straight, had a sharp breaking ball, was a solid athlete who could really swing the bat and was a high-effort six-foot right-hander. He had a good track record of success but couldn't hold up as a starter and ended up bouncing around as a middle reliever.
5. Brandon Morrow, RHP
California
WAR to date: 8.3
Morrow was throwing 97-98 mph as a closer in the Cape Cod League, but would only flash that velocity as a starter, not hold it consistently, and never had a good second pitch as an amateur. He's also a diabetic, and some teams shied away from him due to other injury concerns.
8. Drew Stubbs, CF
Texas
WAR to date: 9.5
Stubbs struck out too much in college and, lo and behold, he struck out too much in the majors too, although at 9.5 career WAR, he has produced some value, largely because he's a very good defensive center fielder.
9. Billy Rowell, 3B
Bishop Eustace Prep (Pennsauken Township, New Jersey)
Did not reach majors
Ah, Rowell, the biggest flop of the draft. Rowell was an oversized shortstop/third baseman in high school who had power but, as it turned out, couldn't hit, reaching Double-A for just 41 games before he was suspended 50 games for a "drug of abuse" and eventually released. The industry's general misread on Rowell's hitting ability affected judgments on the next major prospect out of South Jersey, causing some doubts about whether his hit tool was as good as advertised, given how bad his competition was. That player was Mike Trout.
12. Kasey Kiker, LHP
Russell County HS (Seale, Alabama)
Did not reach majors
Kiker was a very undersized lefty out of Alabama with questionable makeup, all of which affected him in his pro career. He ended up getting the yips, walking 52 in 44 innings in his final season of affiliated ball in 2011.
13. Tyler Colvin, OF
Clemson
WAR to date: 1.0
Colvin projected as a fourth outfielder out of Clemson, and that's exactly what he turned out to be.
14. Travis Snider, OF
Henry M. Jackson HS (Mill Creek, Washington)
WAR to date: 4.7
Snider hit well in the minors but never could make that last adjustment to major league pitching, especially on the inner third of the plate. He's currently hitting well for Triple-A Omaha at age 28.
15. Chris Marrero, 3B
Monsignor Edward Pace HS (Miami Gardens, Florida)
WAR to date: -1.0
The Florida outfielder was a bat-first prospect who didn't have great bat speed or much plate discipline. Like Snider, he's also hitting well at Triple-A (for Pawtucket, in his case) these days.
16. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP
Halifax County HS (South Boston, Virginia)
WAR to date: 2.8
Jeffress was known to have off-field issues before the draft and had multiple marijuana suspensions before he made it on the 40-man roster. He went to the Royals in the Zack Greinke trade, pitched a little for Toronto and has finally found himself back in Milwaukee, where he has become a competent reliever.
17. Matt Antonelli, IF
Wake Forest
WAR to date: -0.2
Antonelli had a solid year for Wake Forest as the Deacons' shortstop, but projected to move off the position in pro ball and had a real swing issue, as his hands would come down at the ball. He hit well through Double-A but stalled out after that and retired in 2013.
18. Kyle Drabek, RHP
The Woodlands (Texas) HS
WAR to date: -0.1
Drabek, son of former Cy Young Award winner Doug, had makeup questions of his own in high school, but his arm and stuff were electric. Unfortunately, he had trouble throwing strikes and blew out his elbow twice, and his stuff has not been the same since his second Tommy John surgery.
19. Brett Sinkbeil, RHP
Missouri State
WAR to date: -0.2
The Missouri State right-hander looked to everyone like a reliever even when working as a starter in college, a two-pitch guy with a lower slot who didn't have great command. He didn't miss many bats in the Marlins' system even after they converted him to relief in 2009. He was out of baseball after a stint with the Pirates' Double-A affiliate in 2011.
20. Chris Parmelee, OF
Chino Hills (California) HS
WAR to date: 0.2
Parmelee was a bat-first high school prospect, projecting to end up in left field or first base even as a teenager, but in more than 1,000 major league plate appearances, he has hit .245/.311/.396 thanks in part to poor pitch recognition.
22. Colton Willems, RHP
John Carroll Catholic HS (Fort Pierce, Florida)
Did not reach majors
Willems was a slight kid with a plus fastball and a bad delivery. He threw 109 innings in 2008, which amounted to half his career total, and was out of baseball by the end of 2010.
23. Max Sapp, C
Bishop Moore Catholic HS (Orlando)
Did not reach majors
Sapp spent parts of two seasons in low-A, hitting .223/.308/.316 at that level before a battle with viral meningitis in the 2008-09 offseason nearly killed him and ended his baseball career. He was a poor defensive catcher in high-school, however, and never hit enough to get to his raw power as a professional player.
24. Cody Johnson, 1B
A. Crawford Mosley HS (Lynn Haven, Florida)
Did not reach majors
Johnson was an incredibly puzzling first-round pick, a first-base-only (and perhaps a future DH) high school prospect who had power but a huge hitch in his swing and real questions about the hit tool even before the draft. He struck out 177 times in his first pro season, 180 the next and ended up striking out in 36 percent of his pro plate appearances before being released for the last time in 2013.
25. Hank Conger, C
Huntington Beach (California) HS
WAR to date: 1.9
Conger is apparently an excellent pitch-framer, which is good for him because he hasn't been able to do anything else as a major league catcher, notably struggling to throw out base stealers in the past season-plus. However, he was seen as a first-round talent in high school because he looked like he'd hit and at least had a chance to stay behind the plate.
26. Bryan Morris, RHP
Motlow State CC
WAR to date: 2.8
Morris is still in the bigs, a last-man-on-the-staff reliever for the Marlins right now, after a career that included Tommy John surgery and a spot in the three-team trade that sent Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers and Morris to the Pirates. Morris had been drafted by the Rays in the third round in 2005, but then-incoming owner Stu Sternberg didn't approve the over-slot bonus upon which the team and Morris had agreed, forcing Morris to go the junior-college route.
27. Jason Place, OF
Wren HS (Piedmont, South Carolina)
Did not reach majors
Place was a very raw high school outfielder with a lot of tools, prodigious power and a hitch in his swing. He struck out 160 times in 129 games in his first full season and never got past Double-A, being released from two organizations in 2011.
28. Daniel Bard, RHP
North Carolina
WAR to date: 4.3
Bard had top-of-rotation stuff for UNC but had a low arm slot, below-average command and questions about his mental toughness on the mound. You probably know the rest by now. He was just released by the Pirates last week.
29. Kyle McCulloch, RHP
Texas
Did not reach majors
McCulloch was a slight right-hander with an average fastball that he could sink a little, but he never came close to missing enough bats in pro ball and ended up with a 5-plus ERA in several stops above high-A.
30. Adam Ottavino, RHP
Northeastern
WAR to date: 4.7
Ottavino threw hard from a low-three-quarters slot as a starter for Northeastern but didn't have much of a second pitch, causing him to struggle regardless of role for the Cardinals, who eventually put him on outright waivers just before the 2012 season. The Rockies claimed him and got three solid relief seasons out of him before he blew out his elbow early in 2015. He should return to action in the second half of this season.