The Miami Marlins' ownership hasn't earned much of our trust when it comes to long-term free agent contracts; the deals they've signed in recent years were all heavily back-loaded so that owner Jeffrey Loria wouldn't have to shell out much before the inevitable trade of the veteran for prospects. So while Wei-Yin Chen's deal with the team appears to be for five years and $80 million, given the owner's history and the opt-out for Chen after two years, it's hard to see him as a Marlin for the long haul.
The Marlins needed another starting pitcher and could probably use one more, with only one returning starter who qualified for the ERA title last year. Jose Fernandez came back from 2014 Tommy John surgery and threw just 64 innings in 11 starts, with a month-long injury in the middle of his return adding to questions about how much of a workload he can handle in 2016. Tom Koehler was the lone ERA qualifier for the Marlins last year but is a consistently below-average starter, without any promise for more. Jarred Cosart is the likely No. 4 starter and still appears to be miscast in that role, with command better suited to the bullpen. The Marlins have many candidates for the fifth spot, but none of them projects to be much better than replacement level. Chen is worth a couple of wins more than whomever he replaces, but they're still looking at a couple of below-average starters behind him in the rotation.
Chen is a solid mid-rotation option who kills left-handed hitters thanks to a plus slider and has had the control to survive some real trouble against right-handed hitters, but the lack of an average changeup or splitter means that righties will continue to give him fits; they have a .457 career slugging percentage against Chen in his four seasons. He'll have to face a few NL East lineups that can be righty-heavy when needed, especially the Mets and Nats, which doesn't help his cause any. And he's leaving one of the better defensive teams in the majors, so there's a greater than even chance he'll see some BABIP regression that makes his performance look a bit worse than it is.
That aside, however, this is about the going rate for a starter of Chen's overall caliber -- average to slightly better, good for 31-32 starts in most years -- even though he's very unlikely to be worth that to the Marlins, who would have a hard time filling their stadium if the Pope was throwing out the first pitch. The deal is slightly back-loaded, with $52 million left after Year 2 plus the vesting option, which fits the Marlins' historical pattern of acting like they're going to pay players and then not actually doing so themselves. I would guess Chen starts 2018 in another uniform after giving the Marlins 350 or so innings of average starting pitching, which is probably a fair deal for them, but not one that's going to make this team any more of a contender than it was before.
Parra signs with Rockies
The Colorado Rockies are apparently going to give Gerardo Parra a three-year, $27.5 million deal that probably sounds excessive, given Parra's relative lack of name value, but seems to me like a fair deal that should have come from someone else.
The Rockies need a true center fielder and they already have a ton of left-handed-hitting outfielders. Parra can't play center and he's left-handed, with awful career results against southpaws. Even if this is a prelude to a Carlos Gonzalez deal that sheds some of the money he's owed, Parra isn't a good fit for a club that already is so left-handed in the outfield and that has no one capable of playing even average defense in center.