Editor's note: A key component changed from the time this trade was first announced Wednesday to when it was finalized Saturday morning. Outfield prospect Derek Fisher, who was set to be traded to the Phillies, was pulled out of the deal and replaced by former No. 1 overall pick Mark Appel and pitcher Harold Arauz. Meanwhile, the Astros also acquired middle-infield prospect Jonathan Arauz (no relation). Keith's analysis of those players is below the original post.
NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- The Astros' playoff exit was largely tied to a problem in their bullpen, which they've addressed using some of the bulk in their farm system while keeping all of their top prospects. For the Phillies, it's a no-brainer to deal a 70-inning-a-year closer -- one who has a very short track record of pitching at this level of performance -- for three prospects and a needed rotation option.
The Astros' bullpen was a weakness in one specific way: They couldn't miss bats. It wasn't an ineffective bullpen, like the Dodgers' non-Jansen relievers or the Red Sox's relievers for most of the year, but they couldn't miss bats and it cost them badly in October. Whether they view Ken Giles as a closer or as a more fungible high-leverage option when they need a strikeout or two, he's better than any reliever they had in 2015 by a pretty significant margin.
Hitters swung and missed at one of every four sliders that Giles threw last year, and struggled to even put his upper-90s fastball in play. He doesn't walk guys, although I think his control is well ahead of his command -- he gets away with some mistakes in location because his two pitches are so good. I don't ordinarily like paying for closers, in money or prospects, but in this case the Astros acquired Giles with five years of control remaining, two of them pre-arbitration years, so they're going to receive substantial value for what they gave up, and while the guys they gave up are good prospects, they were not among Houston's top five.
The Phillies get a lot of value back for their young closer, who was a luxury on a team that's not going to be very good with or without a guy to handle a three-run lead in the ninth inning. The most notable name is right-hander Vincent Velasquez, a promising starting pitching prospect who has thrown 152 1/3 innings in total over the last two years around various injuries, and one who has never thrown more than 124 innings in any calendar year as a professional. He has an above-average fastball and plus changeup, but didn't use the change enough in his big-league tenure and has never found an above-average third pitch. I think he can remain a starter even if the curveball remains a fringe-average weapon because the changeup is good and hitters don't see the fastball well, but some evidence of durability would be nice.
Houston took outfielder Derek Fisher in the sandwich round in 2014 out of the University of Virginia; when first overall pick Brady Aiken didn't sign, Fisher became their top signed pick in the draft class, although their next pick, A.J. Reed, has since blown past Fisher and become one of the top 50 prospects in the game. Fisher is a very athletic corner outfielder whose performances have never quite lived up to his tools, especially on defense, as he's a 70 runner who is a below-average fielder in any spot in the outfield. Fisher does work the count well and can turn on a fastball, although left-handers who can spin the ball are his nemesis. The batting-practice power he's shown for years has never really translated to in-game power, and I think he's more likely to hit for average with 30 doubles than to hit 20-odd homers in the majors. Because he's limited to left field, he's probably an average everyday player rather than a star; if that home run power ever shows up after the first pitch, however, he'd be a much better prospect.
Brett Oberholtzer fills a critical need for the Phillies right now, as he's a major-league starter with a pulse. He missed time this spring with a finger injury, but came back as the same guy he was in his solid 2014 season -- a command left-hander with a fringy fastball and three off-speed weapons that allow him to change speeds and eye levels. The Phillies were about to use the Phanatic as their No. 4 starter, so Oberholtzer gives them something a little better than that. They may also receive a fourth prospect in the trade, likely to be announced after Thursday's Rule 5 draft.
Finally, the fourth player in the deal is right-hander Thomas Eshelman. He was the Astros' second-round pick in June out of Cal State Fullerton, where he was worked very hard this past spring, throwing 137 innings for the Titans. He's a control fiend with fringy stuff, walking just 7 batters in his college season but nearly matching that with five walks in 10 pro innings after signing; his upside is very limited but he should have no trouble ripping through the low minors.
Update
Instead of Fisher, the Astros sent a better prospect in right-hander Mark Appel to Philadelphia, with a very promising 17-year-old, second baseman Jonathan Arauz, going from Philly to Houston in the exchange. I don't think this shifts the overall balance of the trade at all, even though the names have changed, because getting Appel rather than Fisher cost the Phillies that promising teenager.
Appel was the first overall pick in the 2013 draft after a very strong career at Stanford, but his pro results to date haven't matched his draft position or scouting report. Appel will touch 98 mph and sits mostly 93-95 with his four-seamer, while his mid-to-upper-80s slider shows as plus with a hard, big break. His changeup remains a distant third pitch for him, and left-handed hitters killed him in 2015, posting a .293/.390/.458 line. His delivery is almost too easy and pretty -- something I mentioned the other day in my blog post on the Casey Kelly trade -- in that hitters see the ball too easily out of his hand, and that, combined with the lack of life or movement on his four-seamer, has made Appel's fastball too hittable for its velocity. The Astros discouraged him from throwing his two-seamer, even though it's the better weapon for him for a number of reasons, but I would hope the Phillies would allow him to resume throwing it and perhaps even make it his primary fastball. He's very athletic and intelligent and is highly competitive; I've heard second- and third-hand remarks questioning his makeup, but as far as I can tell, much of that is because Appel is very religious, and for reasons I don't understand, that's being held against him. I think the Phillies did very well to land him in the deal, not least because of his work ethic and intelligence, and I still believe he has a future as a mid-rotation starter if he can reduce his reliance on the four-seamer.
Jonathan Arauz, meanwhile, is a polished hitter who played at age 16 this past summer in the Gulf Coast League and performed reasonably well as the league's youngest regular. Arauz, who signed out of Panama for $600,000 the previous August on his 16th birthday, has played shortstop but profiles better at second base. He has a mature approach that more than makes up for his lack of any standout tools, as he's not a plus runner and right now doesn't have much power, although given his listed weight of 147 pounds, that's not a surprise. He's years away, but it says a lot about Houston's pro scouting that they identified him as a prospect worth adding to this deal.
The Phillies also acquired a player named Arauz, Harold, also Panamanian, a 20-year-old who struggled as a starter in the New York-Penn League last year, giving up 36 runs in 37 1/3 innings in 10 starts but pitching more effectively in relief. He's a cutter guy who'll reach 90 mph or so, throwing strikes but lacking anything to get left-handed hitters out. His relief tenure comprised all of five appearances, so I don't want to draw any conclusions from it, but it would be enlightening to see what he could do in a full season as a reliever for low-A Lakewood this year.