Editor's note: Now that free agency has started, Keith Law picks out possible best values, worst values and trade targets across every position group. He started with the catcher position Sunday, followed that with corner infielders and middle infielders, and now continues the annual series with a look at the outfielders who have hit free agency, as well as some potential trade targets.
For the top 50 free agents across every position, click here.
The first three position areas I covered in this offseason's buyers' guides were all very thin, at least on the free-agent side of things. The outfield market, however, is loaded with free agents on the corners, while there are a couple of center field options who are or might become available in trade.
Top free agents
Jason Heyward, RF/CF: Heyward is the top free agent in my rankings for two reasons: He has been extremely valuable so far in his career thanks to superb defense and solid to great on-base skills; and, at 26 years old, he's just entering the typical peak period for position players. That should drive tremendous interest in his services, especially coming off a season in which he posted the best batting average and lowest strikeout rate of his career. But it also gives potential employers reason, or perhaps a mix of reason and unreason, to hope for a better return on their investment than they might get from a typical top position-player free agent: He should hold his value longer, and there's even a chance he'll continue to get better. The Cardinals worked on his mechanics to improve his contact rate, but there's still untapped power in there and a history of better walk rates. There are rarely bargains at the top end of the free-agent market, but Heyward at least offers the opportunity for good value.
Justin Upton, RF/LF: Upton is a bit of a poor man's Heyward, a fairly young (28 entering 2016) position player who has tremendous tools and has shown star-caliber performance for brief periods but who hasn't put it together for a whole season since 2011. He has 30-homer power, he has drawn walks in just over 10 percent of his career plate appearances, he has great bat speed, he has played above-average defense in some years of his career ... and if you get one of those seasons when he does it all at once, you have an instant MVP candidate. He was a 6-WAR player once, and while that was four years ago, the physical tools are there for him to do it again. You just don't want to pay him on the assumption that he'll do it every year.
Yoenis Cespedes, LF/CF: Cespedes probably didn't help his value with some defensive miscues in the World Series, although I'd like to think most general managers already knew what he is -- a perfectly fine defender in a corner and an emergency-only guy in center. The narrative around him was very strong in August, but by the end of the year he looked a lot like the player he always has been: huge power, hard contact, not much patience, and the aforementioned defense. Entering his age-30 season, he's still a pretty good bet to hold value for a while but doesn't offer the tantalizing upside of the two free-agent outfielders above him.
Non-top 50 free agents of note
Nori Aoki, LF/RF: Aoki has settled into a nice niche as a second-tier starting outfielder who gets on base, shows no real platoon split despite being a left-handed hitter, and can play capable defense in left field and probably right field as well. The lack of power makes it hard to envision him as an everyday corner outfielder for a good club, although his specific skill set might appeal to a team that's power-heavy and OBP-light, like the 2015 Astros, Orioles, and Mariners all were. He's 33 and coming off a concussion, so a small one-year deal should be all he wants, especially after the Giants declined his $5.5 million option, making him a free agent.
Chris Denorfia, OF: Denorfia is a great fourth outfielder -- he can play both corners, is an emergency center fielder (like an act of God, the sort of emergency your insurance won't cover), has good contact skills, and has shown in the past that he'll take the occasional walk. Compared to the other fourth-outfielder options on the market, he looks pretty good for a year and maybe $1.5 million or so.
Carlos Moncrief, RF/LF: The list of minor league free-agent outfielders includes a lot of once-famous guys -- such as Donavan Tate, the third overall pick in 2009 who has been terrible when he hasn't been suspended for drug use or injured -- but Moncrief, while not that widely known, is at least a little bit interesting to anyone hunting for value in someone who'll sign a Triple-A deal. Moncrief was converted from the mound to the outfield at age 21, and seemed on track for a major league career of some sort through Double-A, where he hit .284/.354/.470 at age 24 in 2013. He was adequate in his first go-round at Triple-A and saw his BABIP plummet over 100 points there in 2015, "earning" a midseason demotion to Akron. He has a good arm and is fine in right field, with some pop, a little speed, and a good eye at the plate, especially for a converted guy. I'd take a shot at him for my Triple-A roster if he wasn't going to get in the way of a right- or left-field prospect.
Trade targets
Aaron Hicks, CF, Minnesota Twins: The Twins are comically overloaded with young, cheap outfield talent right now, with Byron Buxton the heir apparent in center, Eddie Rosario the most likely lad in left, and überprospect Max Kepler ready to step into right field if they allow it. They may also sign Korean first baseman Byung Ho Park after winning the posting bid on him last week, which will cause some sort of ripple effect on their roster, possibly pushing Trevor Plouffe out, or sending Miguel Sano to right field. No matter how you slice it, however, Aaron Hicks seems to be the most imminent victim of the roster crunch, right after establishing himself as a viable everyday player in center, hitting .259/.333/.432 as a regular after returning from a forearm injury in late June. He's a plus-plus runner with a 70 or 80 arm in center, and his defense could still improve as he's more reliant on pure speed than good reads or efficient routes. He has yet to show much production against right-handed pitching, but killed lefties in 2015, and at least has hit right-handers in Double-A and Triple-A the last two years. The free-agent market is deep in corner outfielders but has no center fielders to match Hicks' potential with the glove and bat, giving the Twins a great opportunity to use him to add some depth to the rotation.
Editor's note: Hicks was indeed traded. He was dealt to the Yankees on Nov. 11 for John Ryan Murphy.
Carlos Gonzalez, RF, Colorado Rockies: The oft-injured Gonzalez is due $37 million over the next two years, which he's probably worth if he's healthy, but not to the Rockies, who aren't likely to contend in either season and could really stand to deal for some more starting pitching. Gonzalez bounced back from a lost 2014 season to post a 3.1 WAR in 156 games for the Rockies, with the usual concerns -- he doesn't hit well outside of Coors, as he's always had trouble with pitches that wiggle, and he was a cipher against left-handed pitching. I don't know exactly what a team that plays at sea level would get out of Gonzalez's bat -- a sub-.300 OBP with 25 homers seems well within reason -- but a plus defender in right with power still has some value, even if it's not quite the $18.5 million per year he's owed.
Marcell Ozuna, OF, Miami Marlins: Ozuna posted a 4.5 WAR in 2014, thanks to his 23 homers and outstanding defense in center, but he's long had a poor approach at the plate and it caught up to him in 2015, while his defense wasn't up to its previous level. He's still due the minimum salary for one more year, after which he hits arbitration, and for a team that needs a cheap solution in center he makes sense -- but I've never been a big believer in his ability to make enough contact to get to that power, or to ever post an adequate OBP. My concerns could be overblown given what he did in 2014; even half that WAR total would make him a screaming bargain at half a million bucks.
Cameron Maybin, CF, Atlanta Braves: Maybin is due $8 million in 2016, plus $1 million on a buyout of his $9 million option for 2017, a reasonable if slightly high salary given the player he appears to be today: below-average defensively in center, with offense that would be solid for a center fielder who could play average defense at the position. He's a second-division starter there, maybe an average starter if he moved to left or right and his defensive output perked up. His season in Atlanta would have looked better had he not suffered a scratch in his eye in early September, costing him eight games, after which he hit .260/.269/.260 the rest of the way ... which might have had nothing to do with the eye issue, of course. For a team that needs an outfielder but has the flexibility to move Maybin to a corner or split his time in center with a better glove, he could be pretty good value.