With the minor leagues' regular seasons over, it's time to present our second annual Prospect of the Year award, given to the prospect who showed the best performance (primarily in the minor leagues) in 2015.
While the process of selecting the top prospects was ultimately subjective, I focused primarily on legitimate prospects who performed well relative to their age, level and experience in pro ball. In short, the younger a player was relative to the other players in his league -- especially when compared just to the players in his league with a chance to have some impact in the majors -- the more impressed I was with a strong performance.
With that, here is my overall Prospect of the Year for 2015, as well as 10 other players who had outstanding seasons and deserved notice. I also gave a separate award to the 2015 draftee who had the best pro debut, as well as noted a handful of runners-up in that category.
Prospect of the Year: A.J. Reed, 1B, Houston Astros
Reed won the 2014 Golden Spikes Award after starring as a two-way player -- first baseman and starting pitcher -- for the University of Kentucky that spring, but slipped to the second round in the '14 draft for two major reasons: questions about his bat speed and the lack of any possible position other than first base.
He's still stuck at the same spot, but I think most of the questions about his hit tool have been resolved now after he destroyed high-A and Double-A pitching this season. His numbers in hitter-friendly Lancaster in the hitter-friendly Cal League could be easily dismissed, but he continued to make frequent, hard contact for Double-A Corpus Christi, hitting .332/.405/.571 at that higher level, with strong walk and strikeout rates.
He's not great at first base, but even slightly below-average defense there won't matter given the broad skills Reed has shown at the plate. He is now ESPN's 2015 Prospect of the Year, and I think he should be firmly in the Astros' major league plans for 2016.
Other contenders
Lewis Brinson, OF, Texas Rangers
Brinson was the Rangers' first-round pick in 2012, the same year they drafted Joey Gallo, Nick Williams (who was traded to the Phillies in the Cole Hamels deal), Keone Kela, Alec Asher and low-A right-hander Collin Wiles, so it's shaping up to be a very strong draft for Texas just three years out.
Brinson is an elite defender in center field, with great bat speed and plus-plus raw power, but like Gallo, he had trouble making enough contact early in his career to get to that power. Brinson made huge adjustments at the plate this year, and his strikeout rate has dropped from 38 percent in 2013 to 21 percent in 2015, even as he has risen from low-A to Triple-A across that time frame. Much of his success in 2015 came at high-A High Desert, which is like playing in 0.5 g, but he performed well in 36 games at the next two stops as well.
Nomar Mazara, OF, Texas Rangers
Mazara doesn't quite have Brinson's upside -- Brinson is a better athlete and plays tremendous defense in center -- but at age 20, Mazara has already reached Triple-A, hitting .296/.366/.443 at Texas' top two levels and making it easier for the team to include Williams in the Hamels trade.
Mazara, signed for a then-record $5 million bonus as an international free agent in 2011, is just coming into his power now, but his approach and bat speed have produced strong results the past two seasons as he has zipped from low-A to Triple-A.
Tyler White, 1B, Houston Astros
White was a 33rd-round pick out of Western Carolina -- he was turned in by only a couple of area scouts in 2013 -- signed for $1,000 as a senior by the Astros, and has done nothing but mash since entering pro ball. He was old for his levels in 2013 and 2014, but this year, at age 24 in Double- and Triple-A, he hit .325/.442/.496 with 84 walks and 73 strikeouts on the season.
White is a bad-bodied player who is probably limited to first base, probably not ideal when A.J. Reed is coming up behind you like a bullet train, but the Astros don't exactly have a competent DH -- Evan Gattis has a .276 OBP this year and has been below replacement level -- which could create an opportunity for both prospects next year.
Blake Snell, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Snell's career has been a study in patience, as he was drafted in 2011 and as recently as 2013 was walking one of every six batters he faced. His control has improved along with his stuff since then, and this year he reached Triple-A and merited a major league call-up that never came.
Snell posted a 1.41 ERA across three levels, with his 1.83 ERA for Triple-A Durham his worst mark at any stop, and whiffed 163 batters (31 percent of the batters he faced) on the season. He was particularly deadly against left-handed batters, and I could see an argument that calling him up to the majors now while he has some concerns against right-handed hitters would be premature. (I wouldn't let him face the Padres, for example.) I'd still expect to see him in the majors for a good chunk of 2016 given the team's lack of starting pitching depth and injury concerns for several guys currently in the rotation.
Jose Berrios, RHP, Minnesota Twins
If the Twins miss the playoffs by a game or two, giving starts to Tyler Duffey and Trevor May rather than Berrios could be the biggest reason, as Berrios has continued to do everything a pitcher needs to do to be successful -- miss bats (26 percent), avoid walks (38 in 166 innings) and limit home runs (just 12 on the year) -- across both Double- and Triple-A.
He might become homer-prone in the majors, as he's just 6 feet tall and doesn't get good plane or life on his fastball, but that hasn't happened yet as he has risen to the top rung of Minnesota's system, and he was very likely to give the Twins better performances than they have gotten from May and Duffey.
Jose De Leon, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Puerto Rican control fiend ran into a little trouble with the long ball in Double-A, but hitters just don't see his fastball, and he posted one of the best strikeout rates in all of minor league baseball this year, fanning 163 batters in 114 1/3 innings (35 percent K rate) across high-A and Double-A. The Dodgers were steadfast in refusing to trade him, even though other clubs were after him all summer, and if his home run issues are indeed just a small-sample-size fluke, he projects as a midrotation starter who could help the big club in the second half of next year.
Lucas Giolito, RHP, Washington Nationals
The top pitching prospect in the minors was held back in extended spring training to keep his innings total down, then dominated the high-A Carolina League, struggled a little in his first two starts in Double-A, then finished strong, all in his age-20 season. He could have helped address the big club's bullpen woes this fall, but the Nats chose not to recall him. He should see the majors at some point in 2016, especially since Washington is likely to lose one or both of Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister to free agency.
Willson Contreras, C, Chicago Cubs
Contreras has been in the Cubs' system since he signed in 2009, but never posted a full-season OBP higher than .320 until he exploded this year with a .333/.413/.478 line in Double-A at age 23. He's also good enough behind the plate that he should make it easier for the Cubs to convert Kyle Schwarber into a full-time outfielder, getting the latter's bat into the lineup an additional 30 games per year.
Max Kepler, OF, Minnesota Twins
Kepler, the German-born son of an American mother and a Polish father, came into pro ball with less experience against quality pitching than even most kids from Latin America, and due to time in short-season leagues and various injuries, he didn't play more than 61 games in any season until 2014. This year, Kepler stayed healthy almost the whole season, hitting .318/.410/.520 with by far the best contact rate of his career and, if you include intentional walks, more walks than strikeouts. He has bounced around the field but played well enough in center to project to stay there, although the Twins are so loaded with plus defenders there that he's likely to play a corner spot. He seems set to become the first MLB regular born and raised in Germany, which should help boost the ongoing surge of the sport's popularity there.
Dom Smith, 1B, New York Mets
Smith didn't turn 20 until mid-June, and despite a dismal start to the season, he ended up leading the Florida State League in doubles and finishing in the top 10 in batting average and 13th in slugging. The raw home run power he showed in high school hasn't come through in pro ball yet, although he has played in two terrible home environments for left-handed power hitters and has compensated by focusing on going the other way -- even hitting four of his six homers on the season out to left field.
Double-A Binghamton will give him his first somewhat neutral home park, and the Mets are hopeful he'll convert his tremendous hitting IQ and physical strength into pull power once he gets there in April.
Honorable mentions: Corey Seager, SS, Dodgers; Austin Voth, RHP, Nationals; Luis Severino, RHP, New York Yankees; Amir Garrett, LHP, Cincinnati Reds; Trey Mancini, 1B, Baltimore Orioles; Jon Kemmer, OF, Astros (tough name if you're from Gethen in the book "The Left Hand of Darkness"); Billy McKinney, OF, Cubs; Brett Phillips, OF, Milwaukee Brewers (traded from Astros in July); Trea Turner, SS, Nationals; Michael Fulmer, RHP, Detroit Tigers (traded from Mets in July).
Best debut from the 2015 draft class
Andrew Benintendi, CF, Boston Red Sox
This was a tough call among a handful of position players from this draft, but I'll give the nod to Benintendi, who won the Golden Spikes Award in 2015 at the University of Arkansas, then went .313/.416/.556 in short-season and low-A, turning 21 three days after his pro debut. Benintendi was nowhere in sight on draft boards coming into 2015, as he was a draft-eligible sophomore with no summer wood-bat experience and was coming off a mediocre freshman year marred by injuries. But he's more than just a performance guy; he has above-average speed and the ability to stay in center field.
Honorable mentions: Houston shortstop Alex Bregman, the second pick in the class, finished up in high-A Lancaster in his first pro summer, making a lot of contact at two levels. … Willie Calhoun, the Dodgers' fourth-round pick this year, also finished up in the high-A California League, hitting a composite .316/.390/.519 with 11 homers in 73 games across three levels. He's actually a toolsy player with huge raw power, although he's a work in progress at second base. … Catcher Taylor Ward, the Angels' first-round pick, was a significant reach with the 26th overall selection and is a poor receiver, but he did hit .348/.457/.438 across short-season and low-A, with his performance in the Pioneer League looking like video-game numbers. … Arizona's fifth-round pick, Arizona State reliever Ryan Burr, threw 34 innings across two levels, finishing in low-A, striking out 49 batters, but more importantly for him, walking just 11. He has huge stuff but a high-effort delivery and has had control problems in the past. … I know Kolby Allard threw just six innings, but the 14th overall pick, who hadn't pitched in games since March due to a stress reaction in his lower back, faced 20 batters in total, punched out 12 and walked none, turning 18 between his first and second appearances of the summer.