Organization ranking: 30
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects for 2015. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Tigers prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2015, one or two prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year, and a sleeper prospect who I think can jump into the main top-100 list for 2016.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Tampa Bay Rays top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects
1. Derek Hill, CF
2. Kevin Ziomek, LHP
3. Stephen Moya, RF
4. James McCann, C
5. Buck Farmer, RHP
6. Austin Kubitza, RHP
7. Javier Betancourt, SS/2B
8. Tyler Collins, OF
9. Daniel Fields, CF
10. Dixon Machado, SS
Overview
It's the majors' worst farm system, judged only by the talent presently in it, which is what happens when you trade five of your top 10 guys from one year in the 12 months before the next list comes out ... and your No. 1 prospect graduates to become your everyday third baseman. I loved the selection of Hill, who is a long way away but profiles as an everyday center fielder who hits leadoff for a good club. Ziomek finished 14th in minor league baseball in strikeouts despite throwing only 123 innings, in large part because his cross-body delivery can make it hard for hitters to see the ball, especially because he can change the shape of his breaking ball to vary it from a sweepy slider to a curve with more depth. It's not an ideal formula for a starter, but the Tigers should challenge him with a jump to Double-A to see if he can keep missing so many bats.
Moya's a physical specimen, but the skills don't match the body; he has big raw power but awful plate discipline, and if you attack him down and away he has no chance. If he ever learns to recognize pitches better, he has 25-30 homer potential, and for his size he's very athletic. McCann has developed into a solid defensive catcher who might hit 30 doubles and 8-10 homers a year, certainly enough to be a starter but unlikely to be anything more than that. Of the Tigers' big three college arms, Ziomek has the best chance to start; Kubitza was wrung out like a bar rag at Rice and has never regained the stuff he had as a freshman, while Farmer throws enough strikes but lacks an out pitch. Collins is a big league fourth outfielder, maybe a starter in a corner for a bad team. Betancourt is a solid defensive second baseman, a fringy runner with very good instincts, showing good bat-to-ball skills but lacking the strength to do more than hit singles; he needs to tighten up his approach, too, although he was 19 all year in the Midwest League and held his own with a high contact rate. Fields broke his hand in May, missed two months, and couldn't get it going at the plate the rest of the summer; hand, finger and wrist injuries can sap a hitter's grip strength for as long as a year. He's the second-best center fielder in the organization behind Hill, and could play defense in the majors right now if need be.
Edgar De la Rosa (11) can hit 100 mph, but the lack of command or a plus second pitch probably points to a bullpen future; he could join Jose Valdez (12) and Angel Nesbitt (16) there in Detroit in the not-too-distant future. Spencer Turnbull (13), Detroit's second-round pick in 2014, has the size and fastball to start, with a slider that could end up a swing-and-miss pitch for him, but he's behind his age in terms of command and feel. Fourth-rounder Adam Ravenelle (14), a right-handed reliever out of Vanderbilt, should move very quickly to the high minors, maybe even to the majors in 2015, because he's got multiple weapons, control and aggressiveness. He still hasn't allowed a hitter to reach base in pro ball. Endrys Briceno (15) had Tommy John surgery after just three starts in 2014 and won't be back until late spring. Grayson Greiner (16), Detroit's third-round pick in 2014, catches "small" for a bigger guy and has the arm strength to stay there, with enough bat to see him as a potential backup.
2015 impact
Hernan Perez could surface as a utility infielder, and any of those hard-throwing relievers I mentioned above could end up pitching in middle relief or later for the Tigers. If Alex Avila gets hurt or doesn't hit, McCann is just a phone call away and could take over regular duties.
The fallen
Fields was No. 2 in the Tigers' system last year before he got hurt. Detroit traded the prospects I ranked third, fourth, fifth, eighth and 10th, while Briceno, who blew out his elbow, was ninth. It's hard to really have a "fallen" prospect when you trade most of them before they can hit the ground.
Sleeper
Machado (no relation) was late coming into his strength and got hurt out of spring training in 2013, but had a real breakout half-season at age 22 last year in Double-A, hitting for average and doubles power -- even improving on the high contact and strong walk rates he'd posted before. Machado could always play above-average defense at short, and even a .265ish average with about the same walk and power output would make him a potential regular.