Organization ranking: 20
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects for 2015. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Yankees prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2015, one or two prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year, and a sleeper prospect who I think can jump into the main top-100 list for 2016.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Tampa Bay Rays top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects
1. Aaron Judge, OF
2. Greg Bird, 1B
3. Gary Sanchez, C
4. Luis Severino, RHP
5. Tyler Austin, OF
6. Jorge Mateo, SS
7. Domingo German, RHP
8. Ian Clarkin, LHP
9. Luis Torrens, C
10. Eric Jagielo, 3B
Overview
Sanchez will show you flashes of the ability that once made him a top-25 prospect in all of baseball, but he'll also take whole pitches or innings off mentally, and catching isn't a position you can play half-fast. Severino has a live, loose arm with a plus changeup and a fastball that shows plus, but it's a reliever's delivery all the way, with no use of his lower half, to say nothing of the lack of an average breaking ball. Austin had a disappointing first half but around midyear started to pick it up; the wrist issues that ruined his 2013 didn't fully disappear until late June or early July, after which he was better, hitting .302/.353/.483 from July 1 on. German came over in the Martin Prado trade, a 22-year-old right-hander who sits in the mid-90s with an above-average breaking ball and below-average changeup. He throws strikes but without great command, and as a player already on the 40-man roster he'll have to move quickly or end up in the bullpen. Clarkin throws a ton of strikes, too, sitting 90-91, touching 93, with probably another couple of mph to come, but it's the wipeout curveball that missed all those bats in the Sally League. Torrens has been progressing behind the plate, just two years after the Yanks moved him there from shortstop; the arm is tremendous, nailing 39 percent of runners in 2014, and he has a solid right-handed swing that should produce double-digit home run power as he fills out. Jagielo has shown power and improved footwork at third base, but has had trouble staying healthy and will probably peak as a .240-.250 hitter because of low contact rates.
Refsnyder (11) received a lot of attention for his hot start in Double-A last year, but didn't maintain that level of production in Triple-A, and his secondary skills -- patience, power, fielding -- are all weak. He might play second every day for someone, but I don't think it will be for the Yankees, who will want more defense or more pop at that spot. The Yankees challenged third baseman Miguel Andujar (12) by sending him from the GCL right to the Sally League to start 2014 at age 19, and after a rough start he hit .319/.367/.456 in the second half of his season, taking better at-bats as he went; there's some controlled violence in that swing and he should grow into some power. Lefty Jacob Lindgren (13) could pitch in a major league bullpen right now with a low-90s fastball with life and a plus slider he can throw for strikes. Shortstop Tyler Wade (14) was also young for the Sally League; like Andujar, he's very smooth in the field with good instincts, but not as far along at the plate as Andujar is. Right-hander Brady Lail (15) has come on quietly over the past two years, working 90-94 with good sink, a plus curveball, and excellent command and control for a 21-year-old pitcher. Ty Hensley (16) has had a horrendous time staying healthy, with shoulder and hip injuries since signing, only to be hospitalized this offseason after he was assaulted by an acquaintance, breaking his jaw. He's flashed some of the plus velocity that made him a first-rounder, but he's now 21½ years old and has 42 innings -- all in short-season leagues -- in three summers as a pro. The Yankees were all over the July 2 class last year, signing three of the top half-dozen or so prospects down there, including shortstop Dermis Garcia, massive third baseman Nelson Gomez, and potential five-tool center fielder Juan DeLeon, although the fifth tool -- the ability to hit -- is always the question with 16-year-old amateurs.
2015 impact
The signing of Stephen Drew closed off second base for Refsnyder, at least for now. That makes Lindgren the most likely prospect to contribute this year, perhaps starting out in middle relief with Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances handling the last six outs.
The fallen
Mason Williams, once a top-50 prospect in the game, has seen his offense decline two years running, and his effort level has dropped even more precipitously. He can still play center, but he looked like a Triple-A player at most last summer.
Sleeper
Mateo is so well-regarded in the industry that other teams have already targeted him in trade talks, but the Yankees have held onto him as their potential shortstop of the future. He has tremendous tools, is an 80 runner and plus fielder who shows above-average raw power in BP. He's also 19½ with just 15 games of experience outside of the Dominican Summer League, so his probability is quite low (or his risk is quite high, depending on how you want to phrase it); a strong year against age-appropriate competition in the Sally League would give me a lot more confidence in his future.