Organization Ranking: 19
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects for 2015. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Jays prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2015, one or two prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year, and a sleeper prospect who I think can jump into the main top-100 list for 2016.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Tampa Bay Rays top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects
1. Daniel Norris, LHP
2. Dalton Pompey, CF
3. Aaron Sanchez, RHP
4. Miguel Castro, RHP
5. Roberto Osuna, RHP
6. Jeff Hoffman, RHP
7. Max Pentecost, C
8. Richard Urena, SS
9. Jairo Labourt, LHP
10. Alberto Tirado, RHP
Overview
The Jays have dealt away a lot of prospects over the last two offseasons to build a major-league roster that could contend with the big boys in the AL East, so the system is much heavier on long-range prospects, mostly 20 and younger, and is probably as skewed toward Latin American signings as any farm system in the game.
Castro just missed the top 100, working with a heavy fastball up to 96 mph and above-average or better changeup; his slider was a 40 to start the year but improved as the season went on, 82-86 and getting firmer. The main concern is that he's not built like a starter, 6-foot-6 or so and under 200 pounds. If he can handle the workload, he could be a No. 2 or 3, but a relief future seems a bit more probable. Osuna is getting back to close to where he was before Tommy John surgery, touching 96 in the AFL with a solid-average changeup. Hoffman had TJ surgery himself in May and probably won't see a mound until midyear; when healthy, he would sit 93-96 with a hard changeup (perhaps too hard) and a potentially plus curveball. Taking him at No. 9 overall was a bet on his athleticism and the Jays' ability to mold him into a pitcher, rather than a thrower.
Pentecost had Tommy John surgery too, but that was in high school, and he still has a pin holding his elbow together. He actually throws well and is a plus runner, but the question on him is how much he'll hit -- it's an odd setup that produces some late barrel play, and he has to clear that to get the head into the zone. Urena and Dawel Lugo (11) are both promising middle infielders, with Urena more advanced on both sides of the ball, with better feel for contact and some emerging power; Lugo has better tools, but a worse approach, looking for anything he can connect with early in the count. Labourt was surprisingly wild at both levels this year, but the stuff was solid, 90-96 with life and a plus change, although he'll need a better slider to stay a starter. Tirado has plus life on a mid-90s fastball but has to throw more strikes; he's clearly a reliever going forward, but still, those guys can't walk a man an inning either.
Mitch Nay (12) and Matt Dean (15) get some attention for good batting averages in the low minors, but neither has the power he'll need to profile at first base, where Dean is now and Nay seems likely to end up (or perhaps right field). Right-hander Sean Reid-Foley (13) was a polished high school pitcher whom the Blue Jays took in the second round, working mostly 91-93 in the spring with an above-average curveball. He has mid-rotation upside, but there's some reliever risk there as well. Toronto's big international signing this summer, Juan Meza (16), is a 6-foot right-hander with an average fastball and changeup and major-league average command already.
2015 impact
Norris and Sanchez should play significant roles for the major-league squad this year, Norris in the rotation, Sanchez perhaps there as well. Toronto may move both guys around to manage their innings and keep them fresh and healthy for an October run. Pompey should be their Opening Day centerfielder, based on the competition, but I think he'll start in Triple-A and come up in June. Devon Travis (14) is a low-upside second baseman acquired for Anthony Gose in a trade with Detroit; he's a below-average fielder with an ugly hack, loading low and deep, losing all momentum before he restarts his hands. The Jays don't have a true everyday second baseman on the roster, so Travis may get a shot there too.
The fallen
Even with the benefit of two years in rookie ball, outfielder D.J. Davis, the Jays' first of two first-round picks in 2012, hit .213/.268/.316 in low-A, and despite his speed was caught stealing (20) more times than he was successful (19). Good thing the Jays used their second first-round pick on Marcus Stroman.
Sleeper
Dan Jansen -- not the speed-skater, although that would be a great story -- was Toronto's 16th round pick in 2013 and had a strong summer for Bluefield in 2014 before an injury ended his season in early August. He's built similarly to Mike Matheny and has made huge strides in all aspects of his defense, especially his throwing, while he already had some raw power and a good sense of the strike zone.