Organization Ranking: 18
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects for 2015. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Padres prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2015, one or two prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year, and a sleeper prospect who I think can jump into the main top-100 list for 2016.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Tampa Bay Rays top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects
1. Hunter Renfroe, RF
2. Austin Hedges, C
3. Matt Wisler, RHP
4. Casey Kelly, RHP
5. Jose Rondon, SS
6. Michael Gettys, CF
7. Zech Lemond, RHP
8. Franchy Cordero, SS
9. Rymer Liriano, OF
10. Ryan Butler, RHP
Overview
The Padres overhauled their major league roster and traded away a lot of prospects but wouldn't part with their top three guys, two of whom are in the top 100 and should be integral parts of their lineup in 2016. Wisler had an outside shot to win a rotation spot in March but struggled in his last outing and was just fair at Triple-A El Paso; his fastball runs 92-95 mph with an average to above-average slider and fringy changeup. He's probably a fourth starter in the long run but shows the size and fastball to be a No. 3. Kelly's stuff came back after his 2013 Tommy John surgery, but his elbow was sore again and the Padres had to shut him down from late May until early September, and they're just hoping he can be ready to compete for a rotation job in March.
Rondon was the key piece coming back in the Huston Street deal, a potential everyday shortstop whom the Los Angeles Angels chose to move because he was caught giving signs to Latin American hitters on opposing teams, which is generally frowned upon in organized baseball. Gettys has an 80-grade arm, is a 70-grade runner and shows 65-70 power, but he's never found a swing that worked for him despite several different setups and swing paths; if it clicks, he'll be a monster. Lemond was showing a plus sinker and plus slider early in the spring at Rice, but the Owls pitched him even after his elbow started to bark, and while he wasn't seriously hurt (an MRI on the elbow showed no damage), it pushed him to the third round of the draft. Cordero swings at everything, but when he connects it goes a long way thanks to his very strong, quick wrists; he's a shortstop now, but I think he will end up in right field. Butler, their seventh-round pick in 2014 out of UNC Charlotte, had a fastball in the 97-100 mph range with an average slider in relief this summer after the Padres junked his curveball. He could be pitching in the majors late in 2015 or in early 2016 if the slider just gets more consistent.
Josh Van Meter (11) is a solid defensive shortstop with a good approach but needs to add some strength to convert all of this contact into actual hits; a left-handed-hitting shortstop who can just hit .280 or so is a big leaguer, maybe even an everyday guy for some clubs. Lefty Jose Castillo (12) came to San Diego in the Wil Myers trade as a projectable lottery-ticket arm who already shows plus velocity. Right-hander Seth Streich (13), acquired from Oakland in the Jesse Hahn/Derek Norris swap, is a command/control right-hander with an average fastball but no average second pitch yet.
Justin Hancock (14) threw 92-95 mph with good bore to the fastball -- showing a plus changeup and a below-average slider -- during his first AFL start; his is not a great body for starting -- tall but narrow -- and he needs a better breaking ball, for now projecting as a No. 5 starter or reliever but with a chance for more. Elliott Morris (15) got all the love in the Street trade; he's a big leaguer, but a max-effort, two-pitch reliever with a plus fastball that has good plane on it and an average low-80s slider with a short break. Tenth-round pick Thomas Dorminy (16) has a plus curveball and average fastball, but the left-hander doesn't have the size to start and might end up a first or second lefty out of the pen for someone.
2015 impact
Wisler or Kelly could spend time in the Padres rotation since so many of their current starters have extensive injury histories. Travis Jankowski (15) is the best defensive center fielder in the organization, and if they really intend to play Myers out there every day, Jankowski would be very useful as a defensive replacement/pinch runner off the bench.
The fallen
Liriano could see some time as an extra outfielder, but he has never hit up to expectations and his swing has become increasingly mechanical and stiff as he's gotten older. Taylor Lindsey (16) just came over in the summer in the Street trade, but as a mediocre defender at second base, he has to hit, and he didn't hit at all in 2014. Andrew Lockett, my No. 9 prospect for them last year, missed nearly all of 2014 with a shoulder injury and has now thrown 31 innings in three seasons in the system.
Sleeper
It's Gettys. If he can hit -- and he did hit much better in his first pro experience than I think anyone expected -- he will be a star. I still can't buy into the bat, given how much trouble he had just finding a swing and staying with it as an amateur -- often surrendering contact for power -- but he'll a top-50 guy if he can develop just an average hit tool.