Organization Ranking: 16
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects for 2015. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 prospects for Cleveland, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2015, one or two prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year, and a sleeper prospect who I think can jump into the main top-100 list for 2016.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Tampa Bay Rays top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects
1. Francisco Lindor, SS
2. Brad Zimmer, CF
3. Clint Frazier, OF
4. Francisco Mejia, C
5. Justus Sheffield, LHP
6. Giovany Urshela, 3B
7. Mike Papi, 1B
8. Bobby Bradley, 1B
9. Tyler Naquin, CF
10. Cody Anderson, RHP
Overview
Cleveland's system is definitely getting deeper, thanks to a couple of very productive drafts that featured a good mix of probability and upside, with the amateur scouting group willing to mix in even projectable high school arms. Francisco Lindor's been in the system for a few years and projects as a star, but beyond him there are nine or 10 guys for whom you wouldn't be crazy to project everyday player-major league starter upside.
Francisco Mejia, my sleeper for them last year, had a good year across the board and should see his way into the top 100 next offseason. He has an 80 arm and improved his throwing technique last year, and is a switch-hitter who's going to come into some power. Learning catching -- game-calling, working with pitchers, blocking, receiving -- while also trying to learn English and develop as a hitter is about as much as this industry ever asks of a player, and I've learned to lower my expectations for how quickly a young catching prospect will develop. Mejia's doing just fine for a 19-year-old ready for low-A. Justus Sheffield made the news recently for breaking the law while intoxicated, which was surprising because he was widely considered by scouts to have a very good makeup. He's a three-pitch lefty with a good delivery, flashing plus on the changeup and tight spin on the curveball. He doesn't have a huge ceiling because he's 5-foot-10 and probably will never have more than a 55 fastball, but I like his chances to at least be a fourth starter.
Urshela, from Colombia, is a 60/70 defender at third base who started hunting for pitches early in the count to drive this year and did so, setting career highs in slugging, doubles, triples and homers, while at the same time more than doubling his career high in walks. He's a great bad-ball hitter, but as a result he might never be a high OBP guy. His defense alone makes him a big leaguer, at least as a utility player. Mike Papi and Bobby Bradley both came from this year's draft -- Papi in the sandwich round and Bradley in the third. Papi's a patient, advanced college product from the University of Virginia, a solid athlete who should be able to play an outfield corner and who needs to be a little more aggressive to get to his power. Bradley was a high school product from Mississippi who torched the Arizona Rookie League last summer, limited to first base, hitting for average and power despite some issues with breaking stuff. He's got quick hands and plus raw power, and he's fine defensively at first in the mold of Mets prospect Dominic Smith.
The break between potential average regulars comes after Bradley with Tyler Naquin, who is a premium defender in center with an 80 arm and 70 speed but too much swing-and-miss with a swing that doesn't generate power. Anderson, a converted outfielder, got exposed a bit in Double-A, becoming too predictable, failing to trust his changeup or to get his slider over in fastball counts. But the size and stuff are still intriguing. James Ramsey (12) probably is a quality fourth outfielder in the big leagues but could have a long run as a platoon player, facing right-handers and filling in in all three outfield spots; I don't see enough speed for him to play center every day. While he hasn't hit lefties at all, I've been impressed by how he tweaked his approach to get to more power now than he did in college.
Taiwanese shortstop Yu-Cheng Chang (13) is strongly built, more so than other Taiwanese shortstops who've come to the American minor leagues, with a lot of average tools but an advanced approach and very good bat control. He might not stay at short, but he has a little pop, enough to perhaps profile at second. Lefty Grant Hockin (14) is Harmon Killebrew's grandson, pitching at 90-94 mph with an above-average slider and some projection left. Erik Gonzalez (16) doesn't have the plate discipline to play every day, but he can handle shortstop well enough to be a good utility infielder. Tony Wolters (17) should have a solid career as a big league backup catcher. Lefty Luis Lugo (18) has the feel to be a back-end starter but his stuff is still a tick or two light. Willi Castro (19) was just 17 in the Arizona Rookie League and was overmatched at the plate, but it was more a lack of strength than a lack of aptitude; he signed for $825,000 in July 2013. His father, Lilian Castro, played in the Tigers' system briefly and has been a coach and scout for several organizations. Cleveland put lefty Ryan Merritt (20) on the 40-man roster this winter after an outstanding season in high-A; he has an average curveball and changeup with great command, but the 87-90 mph fastball might not play so well at higher levels.
2015 impact
Lindor is ready; if he starts the season in the minors, it might be about service-time issues rather than baseball ability. Ramsey could see some time either on the bench or if there's an injury in the major league outfield.
The fallen
Shortstop Dorssys Paulino (15) was a top-60 overall prospect who has now struggled twice around low-A, but only turned 20 in November. His swing is rock-solid, his BP is impressive and professional, he uses the whole field and ... well, cool story bro, but at some point you have to hit.
Sleeper
Mitch Brown (11) had delivery problems in 2013 that Cleveland helped fix before the 2014 season, and he was touching 96 with a plus curveball and the start of a decent changeup. An encouraging season but just a first step for him.