Organization Ranking: 15
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects for 2015. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Royals prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2015, one or two prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year, and a sleeper prospect who I think can jump into the main top-100 list for 2016.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Tampa Bay Rays top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects
1. Kyle Zimmer, RHP
2. Raul Mondesi, Jr., SS
3. Sean Manaea, LHP
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP
5. Brandon Finnegan, LHP
6. Hunter Dozier, 3B
7. Jorge Bonifacio, RF
8. Scott Blewett, RHP
9. Foster Griffin, LHP
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B
Overview
As if coming within one win of a World Championship wasn't good enough for Royals fans, there's still more talent on the way, especially starting pitching, which is key for a team that isn't going to play very often in the deep end of the free-agent pitching pool. Their top two prospects both had rough years, with Zimmer battling a shoulder issue that the Royals hope is resolved after minor surgery, while Mondesi was somewhat overmatched as an 18-year-old in high-A. Beyond those two, however, there were more positives. Manaea just missed the top 100, finishing in the top 20 in the minors in strikeouts, doing it more with deception than huge stuff, as he's mostly 90-94 mph and his slider is above-average but not wipeout. I'll buy into him as more than a fourth starter if he can maintain this kind of success missing bats against Double- and Triple-A hitters, but the improvement in his changeup this year should help. Almonte struggled a bit in the same league as Manaea and Mondesi, more with fastball command than anything else, defaulting to offspeed stuff, especially the changeup, when he needed to pitch more off the fastball. He was 94-96 in the AFL as a reliever, and still had the 12/6 curveball that looked like an out pitch the year before, so there's still cause for optimism. Finnegan you already know; the stuff is there for him to be an elite reliever, which his size and delivery (and bout of shoulder soreness last spring) might point to, but the Royals will likely try to stretch him out as a starter to get more value from him. He was very effective as a starter in college, and has the three pitches to do it.
Dozier, their first pick in 2013, raked in the first half in high-A but struggled in Double-A after a midseason promotion, mostly with contact; he's a doubles-hitter, maybe 20 HR in a peak season, and that'll be fine as long as he can continue improving on defense and doesn't get too big for the infield. Bonifacio suffered early in the year from some stance and swing adjustments designed to get him hitting for more power, but the result was just timing and rhythm problems; by the time he bagged those changes in August it was too late to save his season line, but I expect a bounceback in Double-A in 2015. Blewett, Griffin, and Chase Vallot (12) were part of the Royals' 2014 draft class after Finnegan, with Blewett the most intriguing as a first-round talent who barely pitched in the spring due to a shoulder issue and his short high school season in upstate New York. Both pitchers project as power arms, Blewett a little looser with less command, Griffin probably the better strike thrower with a more deliberate delivery. Vallot's an offensive catcher whose bat, especially his power, may be ready faster than his glove, a Wil Myers-type situation that could necessitate a move to another spot. Cuthbert had his best season since 2011 and will play all of this year at 22; the Royals have tried him a little at second base to see if he could be their callup at third or second if there's a need. I've always loved his swing, a very quiet approach that's direct to the ball and has line-drive loft in the finish, and he continues to post great contact rates for his age.
Christian Colon (11) seems to have settled in as a very high-contact hitter with minimal power who can play second base every day and fill in at shortstop, at least a great utility infielder and possibly a starter at second base, especially if Omar Infante turns in another replacement-level performance. Christian Binford (14) is a command right-hander with a little sink on an 88-91 mph fastball, a very cerebral pitcher who might make it on guile and the ability to fake hitters out by changing speeds and locations, but whose upside is limited. Bubba Starling (13) had another disappointing year, starting out horribly in Wilmington and looking completely lost at the plate, the result of too many people giving him advice on his swing, turning him into Frankenstein's Monster at the plate. His swing improved in the second half, more in line with how he handled the bat in high school, but the results still weren't there for the fifth overall pick from 2011, and 2015 may be his last real chance to establish himself as a prospect. Most of the tools that made him such a high pick are still there; he just has to make more contact for any of that to matter.
2015 impact
Colon should see time around the Kansas City infield this year. Finnegan could appear in the bullpen in the early part of the season or the rotation in the latter part. Zimmer's season will probably start in May, with an eye toward keeping him healthy and under an innings cap for major-league use in August and September, as the Royals did with Finnegan last year.
The fallen
The Royals gave Elier Hernandez $3 million in 2011, one of the highest bonuses given to a Latin American amateur that year, but he hasn't hit at all through three summers in pro ball, and scouts who saw Lexington this year didn't report back any progress in his game or even big tools; for a guy who looks like he should have power, he rolls over to the shortstop far too often, even for a 19-year-old.
Sleeper
Southpaw Colin Rodgers (15) missed 15 months due to a blown elbow, returning for limited duty in late August with his stuff largely intact. He's 89-92 but has a future-plus changeup and at least an average curveball that left-handed hitters have a very hard time picking up.