Org Ranking: 14
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects for 2015. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 Diamondbacks prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2015, one or two prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year, and a sleeper prospect who I think can jump into the main top-100 list for 2016.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Tampa Bay Rays top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects
1. Braden Shipley, RHP
2. Archie Bradley, RHP
3. Aaron Blair, RHP
4. Touki Toussaint, RHP
5. Brandon Drury, 3B
6. Jake Lamb, 3B
7. Yoan Lopez, RHP
8. Robbie Ray, LHP
9. Marcus Wilson, OF
10. Dominic Leyba, SS/2B
Overview
You could probably put those top three arms in any order and find scouts or execs who agree with you; I've heard from outside sources that the Diamondbacks' internal rankings have Blair on top. It's the best collection of high-end starting pitching prospects of any club, and adding Toussaint, their 2014 first-round pick, to that mix was a minor coup; his arm is quick and loose, but last spring his command took a big step forward and he started to show feel for a changeup to go with the plus fastball and above-average to plus curveball. Drury's the better long-term prospect than Lamb, but Lamb is major league-ready with a more advanced approach; the D-backs have tried Drury at second base to try to give him some more versatility, but I find it hard to imagine he'll be anything more than a 40 at the position. Lopez signed for $8.25 million as a Cuban free agent under the amateur international bonus cap; he's got a live fastball that's typically 92-95 but of course ticked up in workouts for clubs, which doesn't tell us whether he'll actually carry that into games. Scouts from other clubs who saw him felt he profiled more in relief; he does have a starter's build and a quick arm. Ray and Leyba both came over for Didi Gregorius in a three-team deal in December, with Ray more advanced but Leyba the upside play, a switch-hitting shortstop who will probably end up at second base, showing good feel to hit, especially from the right side. Wilson is an athletic outfielder with power/speed potential and didn't turn 18 until mid-August, two-plus months after he was drafted in the second round.
Catcher/outfielder Stryker Trahan (11) bounced back over the summer after a demotion to short-season ball and returned to catching in instructional league with some promising results. He had a lot of off-field distractions beyond his control that the D-backs felt led to some of his struggles, but he was in a better mental place by year end and was showing some of his old promise with the bat again. Mason McCullough (12) can hold upper-90s velocity late into games when starting, but he's clearly a reliever between the delivery and command; he could hit 100 mph routinely in one-inning stints. Enrique Burgos (14) walked more than a man an inning in 2013 but cut his walk rate in half this year despite a promotion to high-A; he can sit 94-98 and hold it for two innings if need be. He's one of a collection of hard-throwing relievers, including Jake Barrett (13), Jimmy Sherfy (15) and the injured Jose Martinez (20), who could surface in the majors in 2015-16. Martinez is the furthest away, as he's coming back from Tommy John surgery. I didn't understand the rule 5 selection of Oscar Hernandez (14) from Tampa Bay; not only is he unready for the majors, keeping him there all season will slow or even stall his development. At least he's a catcher, unlike Peter O'Brien (17), who has 80 raw power but is well-below-average receiving and doesn't have the hit tool or plate discipline to be an everyday player somewhere else. Cornell right-hander Brent Jones (18) was a pleasant surprise after signing, showing more feel and command than he did in the spring, with a two-seamer that reaches 96. He's a little ahead of second-rounder Cody Reed (19), a former Vanderbilt commit with "now" stuff but a huge body that he'll have to work to keep in shape.
2015 impact
One of those top three arms will probably see time in the majors this year, along with one or two of the relievers, Barrett being most likely. The Diamondbacks are toying with playing Yasmani Tomas -- not listed here because he's a veteran of the Cuban major league -- at third base, but if (when) that fails, Jake Lamb is the best internal candidate to take over there. Of course, Arizona is going to try Oscar Hernandez as their everyday catcher in 2015, and I hope for the kid's sake that it goes well.
The fallen
It would have been Trahan, between the position switch and the sub-.200 average in low-A, but he turned his season around in the second half and looks like he'll be able to reestablish himself as a potential regular in 2015. Their third and fourth picks in 2011, lefty Andrew Chafin and right-hander Anthony Meo, have both disappointed; Chafin, the 43rd overall pick, reached the majors last year but profiles as a middle reliever at best, while Meo, taken 63rd, was released in May, having lost about 8 mph off his fastball amid injury troubles.
Sleeper
Leyba turned 19 in September and has strong bat-to-ball skills, posting a good contact rate at two levels last year that stayed consistent even though his batting average (.264 in short-season, .397 in low-A) didn't. He projects as an above-average defender at second with some doubles power.