Organization Ranking: 5
I've ranked every farm system, as well as the top 100 MLB prospects for 2015. Below, I've ranked at least the top 10 prospects, plus an overview of the system and any other names of note beyond the top 10. I also discuss any prospects who might help the big league club in 2015, one or two prospects whose stock has taken a big hit in the past year, and a sleeper prospect who I think can jump into the main top-100 list for 2016.
Non-Insider subscribers: Check out the free Tampa Bay Rays top-10 prospects report to see what these entail.
Top 10 prospects
1. Blake Swihart, C
2. Henry Owens, LHP
3. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP
4. Rafael Devers, 3B
5. Manuel Margot, CF
6. Garin Cecchini, 3B
7. Matt Barnes, RHP
8. Brian Johnson, LHP
9. Deven Marrero, SS
10. Michael Chavis, 3B
Overview
The Red Sox continue to churn out prospects and used an off year from the major league squad in 2014 to add Eduardo Rodriguez, Edwin Escobar (11) and Heath Hembree in trades involving impending free agents. They're especially deep in position players with defensive value and left-handed pitching, which are extremely valuable commodities in the trade market. Cecchini could play every day for at least a half-dozen major league teams right now; Barnes could be the No. 5 starter for at least as many teams. Marrero is maybe a year away from being ready for someone's lineup, although he needs to show better results on contact; he has a 60-grade glove with a 70-grade arm but is a fringe-average runner at best without pop, and aside from a 68-game stint in Portland last year, he has yet to hit for average at any level. Johnson is a four-pitch pitcher now, having added a cutter/slider and still working at 90-92 mph, with a better changeup than before and still showing great fastball command. He has a low ceiling but is probably the safest bet in the system to be a big league starter. Trey Ball (13) was awful at the start of the year, a mechanical mess without a good secondary pitch to carry him against Sally League hitters, but by the end of the summer, the changeup graded as a 55 or a 60 and he was sitting at 90-91 mph and touching 94. He's got a ways to go as a pitcher, but he was pretty raw overall as a cold-weather kid who was also a position player in high school.
Their draft class this year had a good mix of prep and college guys. Chavis, a high school shortstop, started to hit in late July once the Sox moved him to third base, where he split time with Devers. Second-rounder Sam Travis (14), an ex-teammate of Cubs prospect Kyle Schwarber, is a very polished first baseman with an advanced, patient approach and good contact skills, but it's unclear whether he has the power to be more than just a regular. Michael Kopech (12), their sandwich-round pick, will sit at 94-95 already and touch 98 with an above-average slider but isn't advanced as a pitcher yet and will likely need time to get his delivery synced up and careful handling to keep him healthy.
Others of note in the system: Teddy Stankiewicz (15) might emerge as a back-end starter but is lacking any swing-and-miss pitch, fills up the strike zone and pitches heavily off his fastball. Javy Guerra (17) struggled at the plate as an 18-year-old in the GCL but has a sound left-handed swing and plays above-average defense already at short. Sean Coyle (18) has come into some surprising power the past two years, hitting 30 bombs in 145 non-rehab games, and has always had solid bat-to-ball skills; it's hard to see him continuing to hit for this kind of power as a 5-foot-7 (if that) guy without a lot of loft, but he's going to play in the big leagues as a bench guy or platoon second baseman. Wendell Rijo (19) is in a similar vein, a really smart player with average to slightly above-average tools, probably a utility guy but with a chance to be a regular. Carlos Asuaje (20) is built like Coyle but has a better eye at the plate and a bit more natural power, though without a clear position.
2015 impact
Barnes could make starts for Boston this year, although he isn't likely to make the Opening Day rotation, barring an injury. Hembree throws hard when healthy and can miss bats with the fastball but doesn't command it well enough to get away with much up in the zone; he was up briefly after the trade and will likely log more service time in 2015. With Christian Vazquez behind the plate, I don't see Swihart getting the call this year, although he'd probably be fine if the Sox called him up in August or September.
The fallen
The Red Sox have done well with high picks in recent years, but their first selection in 2010, Kolbrin Vitek, retired in spring training after two awful seasons in Double-A. Pat Light, the 37th overall pick in 2012 (after the Sox had already taken Marrero and Johnson), still hasn't gotten past high Class A at age 23 and put up a near-5.00 ERA in Salem last year with an 11 percent strikeout rate.
Sleeper
Travis is the best candidate to race through the low minors; he is advanced enough a hitter that he could start in Double-A, and I'm willing to bet his power will be more than the consensus expectation -- 20-25 homers a year at his peak, which is enough to push him on to the top 100 next year.